News

Turkey in the Black Sea Region: Risks for Russia?

Published

4 years ago

February 17, 2022

On February 3, 2022, President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan made an official visit to Ukraine, during which he managed to put his signature to a Turkey–Ukraine free trade agreement following more than ten years of negotiations on the provisions of the document. But this was not the only achievement of the President’s visit: Ankara and Kiev also signed a framework document on the construction of a facility that will produce Turkish unmanned aerial vehicles in Ukraine.

The dynamically developing relations between Ankara and Kiev bring into focus such issues as Turkey’s vigorous penetration into the post-Soviet space, its willingness to act as a military and political patron of a number of former Soviet countries and aid them in strengthening their relations with NATO despite their non-NATO member status. Do these developments make conflict in the Black Sea more likely? What risks would this create for Russia and its interests?

The Caucasus and Ukraine: Two Links in the Same Chain

After the Second Karabakh War, the Armenian–Azerbaijani conflict was no longer a predominantly regional ethnopolitical confrontation rooted in the consequences of the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The strategic link between Ankara and Baku formed in the early 1990s has gone from strength to strength. Opportunities for Turkey and Azerbaijan to collectively exert pressure on Armenia (military, political and diplomatic) and Georgia (in terms of economic cooperation) have expanded. Russia’s hegemony in the South Caucasus has been challenged. At the same time, the Turkish strategy of strengthening its positions in Eurasia has created additional tensions in Ankara’s relations with its NATO allies and with Iran.

However, the events of 2020 did not lead to changes in just one region of the post-Soviet space. Turkey’s growing presence in the South Caucasus has opened up opportunities for it to build up political and economic influence in the Black Sea. And the expansion of multifaceted cooperation with Ukraine is one of the most obvious consequences of Turkey’s encroachment into the former Soviet Union.

Today, President Erdogan consistently promotes the idea of Turkey being a mediator between Russia and Ukraine. Yet, he is just as consistent in promoting ideas and practices that are unacceptable to Moscow. Erdogan has made no secret of the fact that he does not recognize Russian jurisdiction over Crimea, while the Russian authorities have declared that the issue of the status of the peninsula is “closed.”

Military-technical cooperation between Ankara and Kiev has long ceased to be merely a part of the foreign policy activity of the two states. On September 29, 2021, the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine and the Bayraktar Savunma signed a Memorandum of Cooperation on the construction of a joint training and testing centre for the maintenance, repair and modernization of UAVs and training of personnel. In late October 2021, Ukraine used a Bayraktar strike drone for the first time in the armed conflict in the southeast of the country, in violation of the peace agreement between the parties. Following the strike, a group of reconnaissance officers from the Armed Forces of Ukraine infiltrated and captured the village of Staromaryevka located in the so-called “grey zone” between the DPR (the unrecognized Donetsk People’s Republic) and Ukraine. Such operations are very much to the liking of Ukraine’s partner countries in Eastern Europe. In the autumn of 2021, Minister of Defence of the Republic of Latvia Artis Pabriks suggested that EU and NATO countries follow Ankara’s example and learn from its experience in developing relations with Kiev without taking the position of Moscow into consideration.

In this context, it is worth noting a certain incongruence between the approaches of the United States and Turkey’s other NATO allies to its actions in the Caucasus and Ukraine. France could not (and cannot) tolerate Ankara’s unequivocal support for Baku, while the United States has adopted a position of cautious restraint. Washington and Paris are co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, and they are concerned about Turkey’s “revisionism” in the Caucasus. This explains why both the French and the American sides are prepared to put up with Russia being the only major player in Nagorno-Karabakh as an inevitability or a lesser evil.

ALSO READ : Giuliani Declares Bankruptcy Amidst Crippling Defamation Judgment

There is an Armenian lobby in the United States and France. Without exaggerating the role that it plays in the politics of both countries, we can say that the issues of Karabakh independence and the Armenian genocide in the Ottoman Empire are present in the American and French narratives. Yet there is no scenario in which one could possibly imagine a discussion of the self-determination of the Donbass republics taking place in Congress or the National Assembly of France. It is unlikely that influential groups (not individual members of parliaments) calling for the recognition of Crimea as part of Russia will appear in either country any time soon.

Thus, the collective West sees Turkey’s advances in Ukraine as being far less nuanced than the strengthening of the strategic alliance between Turkey and Azerbaijan. Some countries of the “New Europe” even believe that Ankara is acting as any NATO member can (and should) act in its relations with Ukraine—without any kind of political correctness or reservations, something that representatives of Germany, France, Italy, Hungary and other EU countries resort to from time to time. All this cannot but embolden Turkey to take new steps to build allied relations with Kiev. In turn, Ukraine, tired of sitting on its hands waiting for NATO to make up its mind about the country’s membership in the organization, is ready to welcome Turkey with open arms.

But does Turkey’s growing activity in the Black Sea necessarily mean that its relations with Russia will suffer greatly? Well, the answer to this question is not as clear-cut as it may seem at first. To understand why this is the case, it is vital to examine the foundations on which the bilateral partnership between Ukraine and Turkey was built.

Ukraine and Turkey: It is more than just about Crimea

For Ukraine, President Erdogan and the Turkish establishment are a sympathetic audience, especially when it comes to the loss of Kiev’s sovereignty over Crimea. Turkish officials miss no opportunity to stress that they do not recognize Russian authority over the peninsula.

But the Crimean Tatar community is an important domestic factor for Turkey. According to various estimates, approximately 4–5 million descendants of Crimean Tatars live in the country. Russian expert in Turkic languages and civilization Pavel Shlykov has noted that, “there are forces in Turkey that are ready to exploit the romantic moods of a part of the Turkish elite who dream of expanding more actively into the Caucasus, Crimea, the Volga Region and Central Asia, and who view Russia not as a partner, but as a geopolitical rival.” In this regard, it is no coincidence that Erdogan, justifying his initiative to act as a mediator between Moscow and Kiev, has pointed out just how important it is for the Black Sea region as a whole to see a positive resolution to the Crimean Tatar issue. During his visit to Ukraine in February, Erdogan met with a delegation from the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar People (an organization banned in the Russian Federation).

ALSO READ : Ring in 2024 in Style: Top 5 Luxury Bangkok Hotels for New Year's Eve

But Turkey does not focus on Crimea only. The Turkish elite, realizing the complexity of relations between Moscow and Kiev, uses Ukrainian channels to express its dissatisfaction with Russian stance on other foreign policy issues. This was the case during Erdogan’s visit to Kiev on February 3, 2020, which was timed to coincide with the 28^th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the Republic of Turkey and post-Soviet Ukraine. It also took place against the backdrop of a sharp military escalation in Syria. The Turkish President lambasted the Russian leadership for deliberately turning a blind eye to the actions of the “Syrian regime.”

We should keep in mind that contacts with Bartholomew I of Constantinople are extremely important for the Ukrainian leader, Volodymyr Zelensky (as they were for his predecessor Petro Poroshenko), as he wants to use the Archbishop’s influence to fuel the “nationalization” of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine. And there are no two ways about it—he needs Erdogan to do this. Arguably, Ukraine is willing to showcase its privileged relations with Azerbaijan, while it also seems poised to affirm the policy of non-recognition towards the genocide of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire. Following the Second Karabakh War, Kiev has noted a change in the behaviour of the Azerbaijani leadership, deeming it more relevant to today than the example of the 1995 “pacification” of the Republic of Serbian Krajina it relied on before.

However, despite the commonality of interests and growing cooperation between the sides, Ankara will most likely try to compensate for its emotions with regard to Ukraine by being pragmatic in its relations with Russia. No matter how intensively cooperation between Ankara and Kiev may develop, Erdogan is not trying to give up its role as an “intermediary” between Ukraine and Russia. He is under no illusion that the West would be satisfied if it were Turkey pulling the chestnuts out of the fire and not the “Euro-Atlantic brotherhood.” But the Turkish leadership is trying to raise its profile in the dialogue with the United States and the European Union by appealing to its “special relations” with Moscow. For all intents and purposes, this looks similar to how Ankara is conducting the dialogue with the European Union around the problem of refugees and migrants from the Middle East. For Turkey, getting caught up in an open confrontation with Russia would mean losing its status as a “special member” of NATO that needs to be coaxed and coddled.

Over recent years, Erdogan has thrown down the gauntlet to a number of countries, such as when putting Moscow, Washington, Beijing, and New Delhi, among others, on notice. However, by embracing his image as a major troublemaker, the President of Turkey has repeatedly shown that he is able to rationalize confrontation. This was the case in 2016 when Turkey and Russia disagreed over Syria, and in 2021 when Joe Biden called the tragedy of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire a genocide.

However, no matter how the Turkish President and his inner circle maneuver, Turkey is becoming more and more militarily and politically involved in post-Soviet affairs with each passing day. And we are no longer talking exclusively about the Caucasus region. It appears as if Erdogan wants to become one of the key actors in the Ukrainian game—a player without whom any reconfiguration in the Black Sea region would be, if not impossible, then extremely unlikely.

Post Views: 1,395

Analysis

The 2026 Medicare Sticker Shock: Why Your COLA Raise Is Already Gone

Published

2 days ago

November 24, 2025

Abdul Rahman

The Social Security Administration delivered the news retirees desperately wanted to hear: a 2.8% 2026 Social Security COLA increase, designed to shield fixed incomes from persistent inflation. For the average retiree, that translates to roughly a $56 per month increase.

Sounds good, right? Don’t deposit that phantom raise just yet.

As a senior healthcare policy analyst, I can tell you that the accompanying announcement from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) is the silent thief in the night. The sharp increase in Medicare 2026 premiums is poised to claw back nearly one-third of the entire COLA, leaving millions of seniors with little more than a nominal net increase—and, for some, no increase at all.

The illusion of a raise is quickly yielding to the reality of the healthcare squeeze.

Table of Contents

The Brutal Math: How the Premium Hike Neutralizes the COLA

The key numbers that matter most to retirees on Original Medicare are staggering.

Old Standard Part B Premium (2025): $185.00
New Standard Medicare Part B premium 2026: $202.90
The Difference: An increase of $17.90 per month.

Since the Part B premium is automatically deducted from your Social Security check, this is an immediate, inescapable reduction to your net income.

Calculation	Monthly Increase	Impact
Gross COLA Increase (Avg.)	~$56.00	The headline raise.
Less: Part B Premium Hike	-$17.90	The mandatory deduction.
Net Gain (Avg.)	~$38.10	What’s left for food, gas, and utilities.

That $17.90 hike consumes approximately 32% of the average retiree’s raise, bringing the effective COLA down from 2.8% to around 2.1%. After a year of intense inflation hitting food, fuel, and housing, this marginal net gain offers almost no genuine retiree inflation protection. It is the largest erosion of the COLA by Medicare premiums since 2017.

ALSO READ : Pakistan's Education Conundrum: Challenges and Strategic Solutions for Reform

The Hidden Costs You Must Also Face

Beyond the standard premium, two other numbers underscore the rising financial pressure:

Medicare Part B deductible increase: This is rising from $257 to $283. This is the amount you must pay out-of-pocket annually before Part B coverage kicks in.
Part A Inpatient Deductible: This is also rising to over $1,736 per benefit period. A single, unexpected hospitalization could now cost hundreds of dollars more than it did in 2025.

For those with smaller Social Security checks, the “hold harmless” provision will thankfully prevent your net benefit from decreasing. However, it also means your check essentially won’t grow at all, leaving you with zero net benefit from the COLA to battle rising consumer prices.

📈 The Wealth Penalty: IRMAA Brackets 2026

The squeeze is exponentially tighter for affluent and upper-middle-class retirees who are subject to the Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount (IRMAA). This surcharge requires higher earners to pay a larger percentage of the Part B program cost.

The initial IRMAA trigger is now based on your 2024 tax filing.

IRMAA Trigger 2026 (Single Filers): Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI) > $109,000
IRMAA Trigger 2026 (Joint Filers): MAGI > $218,000

The problem? Many retirees are only slightly above these thresholds, often due to a single, planned event like selling an appreciated asset or executing a small Roth conversion. Falling into that first IRMAA bracket can jump your total Part B monthly premium from $202.90 to $284.10 (and higher tiers escalate steeply from there), completely vaporizing the 2.8% COLA and potentially reducing your actual net monthly income.

ALSO READ : Socio-Economic Implications of Canadian Border Closure With U.S

Actionable Advice: Three Moves to Protect Your Income Now

The reality of these high Medicare deductible 2026 and premium costs demands a proactive financial stance. Here are three strategies to mitigate the damage:

1. Optimize Your Taxable Income (The IRMAA Strategy)

If you are close to an IRMAA threshold, work immediately with your tax advisor to manage your 2026 IRMAA brackets exposure.

Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCDs): If you are 70.5 or older, use QCDs from your IRA to satisfy your Required Minimum Distribution (RMD). This lowers your MAGI without generating taxable income.
Roth Conversions: Strategically time any Roth conversions to stay under the IRMAA limit. A large conversion this year could cost you thousands in surcharges two years from now.

2. Review Your Part D and Medicare Advantage Options

Since this is Open Enrollment Season, don’t default to your old plan.

Part D Surcharges: IRMAA also applies to Part D prescription drug coverage. Review your Part D plan’s premium and its coverage of your specific medications.
Medicare Advantage: While not for everyone, many MA plans offer $0 Part B premiums and incorporate Part D coverage, offering a way to avoid the direct Part B premium hike—though you must weigh network restrictions and out-of-pocket limits.

3. File an IRMAA Appeal (The SSA-44)

Did a life-changing event (e.g., stopping work, reduction in work hours, divorce, death of a spouse) significantly reduce your income since 2024? If so, you can file a Form SSA-44 with Social Security to appeal the IRMAA determination based on your current reduced income, potentially lowering your premium tier immediately.

The 2.8% COLA was supposed to be a lifeline against inflation. For millions of American seniors, it will instead be a transfer payment to cover soaring healthcare costs. Planning now is the only way to ensure the net number on your Social Security check is maximized.

Post Views: 173

Analysis

The Odd Couple: Why the Trump-Mamdani “Bromance” is the Most Honest Thing in Politics Right Now

Published

4 days ago

November 22, 2025

Abdul Rahman

Let’s be honest: if you had “Donald Trump and Zohran Mamdani bonding over utility bills” on your 2025 Bingo card, you’re lying.

But yesterday, the simulation didn’t just glitch; it completely reset.

On Friday, the Oval Office played host to a scene that would make a cable news pundit’s head explode. On one side, President Donald Trump, the avatar of right-wing populism. On the other hand, Mayor-Elect Zohran Mamdani, a card-carrying Democratic Socialist who campaigned on taxing the rich. By all laws of political physics, this should have been a cage match. It should have been fire and fury.

Instead? It was a bromance.

The Mamdani and Trump meeting wasn’t just cordial; it was arguably the most fascinating political theatre of the year. Watching them sit side-by-side, you didn’t see a clash of civilizations. You saw two guys from Queens who know exactly how to work a room, and who both seemingly hate the exact same people.

Table of Contents

The “Fascist” Pass

The moment that’s going to burn down social media isn’t the policy talk—it’s the joke.

When a reporter from the press pool—voice trembling with the anticipation of a “gotcha” moment—asked Mamdani if he still considered the President a “fascist,” the air left the room. It’s the kind of question designed to blow up a meeting.

But before Mamdani could answer, Trump interrupted. He didn’t rage. He didn’t tweet. He leaned over, patted the Mayor-Elect’s arm like a proud uncle, and dropped the line of the year:

“That’s okay. You can just say yes. It’s easier than explaining it. I don’t mind.”

This is the latest evolution of Trumpism. It’s a level of post-irony that renders the usual resistance attacks useless. By giving Mamdani a permission slip to use the “F-word” (fascism), Trump didn’t just defuse the insult; he owned it. He turned the ultimate condemnation into an inside joke between two guys who understand that labels don’t matter as much as leverage.

ALSO READ : Pakistan slipping lower in corruption index is a bombshell revelation

For Mamdani, it was a masterclass in pragmatism. He didn’t walk back his beliefs, but he didn’t take the bait. He laughed. And in that laugh, the “Resistance” died a little, and something else—something far more pragmatic—was born.

The Common Enemy: Con Edison

So, what do a billionaire real estate mogul and a socialist tenant organizer talk about when the cameras are off?

Con Edison.

If there is one thing that unites the penthouse and the tenement, it is the absolute hatred of a utility bill that makes no sense. This was the glue of the Trump Zohran summit.

Trump, ever the simplifier, argued that since global fuel prices are down, the rates in New York City must drop. “It’s ridiculous,” he said. Mamdani, who has made public power a central pillar of his platform, nodded vigorously. “Absolutely,” he replied.

This is the common ground that the establishment ignores at its peril. The Con Edison discussion highlights the “Horseshoe Theory” in action—the idea that the far-left and the far-right eventually curve around and meet. Both Trump and Mamdani appeal to voters who feel ripped off by faceless corporations and abandoned by the centrist status quo.

When Mamdani pointed out that “1 in 10” of his voters also pulled the lever for Trump, he wasn’t apologizing; he was stating a fact that Democratic consultants in D.C. are too terrified to admit. The working class doesn’t care about the ideological labels; they care that their lights stay on without bankrupting them.

Queens Recognizes Queens

Perhaps the most surreal moment came when Trump defended Mamdani against his own party. Rep. Elise Stefanik had previously thrown the kitchen sink at Mamdani, labeling him a “Jihadist.”

ALSO READ : Sania Approves Cognitive API Architecture For Ehsaas’ One Window Socioeconomic Registry

In a normal timeline, Trump joins the pile-on. But yesterday? He dismissed his loyalist’s attack with a wave of his hand, calling Mamdani a “rational person” and adding, “The better he does, the happier I am.”

Why? Because Stefanik is Washington. Trump and Mamdani are New York. Specifically, they are creatures of the outer boroughs.

There is a specific frequency that New Yorkers operate on—a mix of hustle, bluntness, and a complete lack of patience for decorum. The Zohran Mamdani White House meeting proved that geography is often thicker than ideology. Trump looks at Mamdani and doesn’t see a socialist threat; he sees a guy who won against the odds, a guy who knows how to fight, and a guy who isn’t boring.

The New Face of Populism?

We are witnessing a realignment. The Trump-Mamdani meeting headline isn’t just a fluke; it’s a preview.

We have entered an era where cultural warring takes a backseat to the raw exercise of power against perceived elites. Suppose the new face of populism involves a MAGA president and a socialist mayor teaming up to bully a utility company into lowering rates. In that case, the centrist middle is in big trouble.

The traffic swarm on social media will obsess over the “fascism” joke. Still, the real story is boring, practical, and terrifying for the establishment: Trump and Mamdani agree on more than you think.

And as Trump said, he doesn’t mind if you call him names, as long as you can cut a deal. Welcome to the new New York.

Post Views: 333

Opinion

The Texans Defense Just Put the AFC on Notice—With or Without Stroud

Published

5 days ago

November 21, 2025

Abdul Rahman

Josh Allen didn’t just lose a football game on Thursday night; he survived a mugging.

If you watched the Texans vs Bills highlights, you didn’t see a shootout. You saw a statement. You saw a Houston defensive front that smelled blood in the water and a secondary that refused to break. By the time the clock hit zero at NRG Stadium, with the scoreboard reading Texans 23, Bills 19, one thing became violently clear: The Houston Texans are no longer just “C.J. Stroud’s team.”

They are a defensive juggernaut capable of wrecking the AFC playoff picture, regardless of who is under center.

Table of Contents

The “Bullock Breakout” and the Pass Rush Party

Let’s start with the metric that matters most: 8 sacks.

That is not a typo. The Texans’ defensive front, led by the relentless Will Anderson Jr. (who tallied 2.5 sacks and seemingly lived in the Bills’ backfield), turned one of the league’s best quarterbacks into a frantic escape artist. Anderson has now recorded a sack in six straight games, tying a franchise record held by Mario Williams. He isn’t just rushing the passer; he is wrecking game plans.

But the true story of Thursday night was rookie safety Calen Bullock.

3 Total Turnovers Forced: Two interceptions and a forced fumble.
The “Closer”: His interception with 24 seconds left didn’t just pad the stats; it iced the game.

In a league obsessed with offense, DeMeco Ryans has built a unit that wins ugly. When the Bills threatened late, it wasn’t the offense that responded—it was the defense forcing a 4th-and-27 disaster for Buffalo. This is the brand of football that travels well in January.

ALSO READ : US-Pak Relations in Historical Perspective

Davis Mills Did “Just Enough” (And That’s the Point)

Let’s address the elephant in the room: C.J. Stroud was out.

When your franchise quarterback is sidelined with a concussion, the playbook usually shrinks to the size of a napkin. Enter Davis Mills. The backup signal-caller didn’t light up the box score (153 yards, 2 TDs), but he did something far more important: he didn’t lose the game.

Zero Turnovers: Mills protected the football.
Red Zone Efficiency: Two first-half touchdown passes gave the defense a lead they could defend.

The “Mills Narrative” isn’t about him being a saviour. It’s about the Texans proving they have the infrastructure to survive adversity. Good teams panic when their star goes down. Great teams lean on their other units. Thursday night proved that Houston is becoming the latter.

The AFC South & Playoff Picture

So, where does this leave the Texans?

At 6-5, they are back above .500 and have firmly re-inserted themselves into the NFL playoff picture AFC. This wasn’t just a win; it was a tiebreaker goldmine against a fellow AFC contender.

With the Jaguars and Colts also fighting for the AFC South crown, this win stabilises the ship. If Stroud returns healthy for the stretch run—paired with this version of the defence—Houston is a dark horse to make a deep run. They just proved they can beat a 7-win Bills team without their best player. Imagine what they can do when he returns.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

When will C.J. Stroud return?

C.J. Stroud is currently in the NFL concussion protocol. While there is no official timeline, most players typically miss one week. If he clears protocol, he could return for the Week 13 matchup against the Jaguars.

ALSO READ : THREE YEARS OF EHSAAS AND SUCCESSFUL DEPLOYMENT OF PROJECTS: PM TO CHAIR EVENT

Are the Texans playoff contenders?

Absolutely. At 6-5 with a tiebreaker win over Buffalo, the Texans are firmly in the Wild Card hunt and still competing for the AFC South title. Their defence (ranking top-5 in sacks) makes them a dangerous matchup for any team.

Who is Calen Bullock?

Calen Bullock is the Texans’ rookie safety out of USC. He was a third-round draft pick in 2024 and has quickly become a playmaker, recording multiple interceptions in his debut season, including the game-sealer against the Bills.

Post Views: 390