Connect with us

News

Turkey in the Black Sea Region: Risks for Russia?

Published

on

On February 3, 2022, President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan made an official visit to Ukraine, during which he managed to put his signature to a Turkey–Ukraine free trade agreement following more than ten years of negotiations on the provisions of the document. But this was not the only achievement of the President’s visit: Ankara and Kiev also signed a framework document on the construction of a facility that will produce Turkish unmanned aerial vehicles in Ukraine.

The dynamically developing relations between Ankara and Kiev bring into focus such issues as Turkey’s vigorous penetration into the post-Soviet space, its willingness to act as a military and political patron of a number of former Soviet countries and aid them in strengthening their relations with NATO despite their non-NATO member status. Do these developments make conflict in the Black Sea more likely? What risks would this create for Russia and its interests?

The Caucasus and Ukraine: Two Links in the Same Chain

After the Second Karabakh War, the Armenian–Azerbaijani conflict was no longer a predominantly regional ethnopolitical confrontation rooted in the consequences of the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The strategic link between Ankara and Baku formed in the early 1990s has gone from strength to strength. Opportunities for Turkey and Azerbaijan to collectively exert pressure on Armenia (military, political and diplomatic) and Georgia (in terms of economic cooperation) have expanded. Russia’s hegemony in the South Caucasus has been challenged. At the same time, the Turkish strategy of strengthening its positions in Eurasia has created additional tensions in Ankara’s relations with its NATO allies and with Iran.

However, the events of 2020 did not lead to changes in just one region of the post-Soviet space. Turkey’s growing presence in the South Caucasus has opened up opportunities for it to build up political and economic influence in the Black Sea. And the expansion of multifaceted cooperation with Ukraine is one of the most obvious consequences of Turkey’s encroachment into the former Soviet Union.

Today, President Erdogan consistently promotes the idea of Turkey being a mediator between Russia and Ukraine. Yet, he is just as consistent in promoting ideas and practices that are unacceptable to Moscow. Erdogan has made no secret of the fact that he does not recognize Russian jurisdiction over Crimea, while the Russian authorities have declared that the issue of the status of the peninsula is “closed.”

Military-technical cooperation between Ankara and Kiev has long ceased to be merely a part of the foreign policy activity of the two states. On September 29, 2021, the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine and the Bayraktar Savunma signed a Memorandum of Cooperation on the construction of a joint training and testing centre for the maintenance, repair and modernization of UAVs and training of personnel. In late October 2021, Ukraine used a Bayraktar strike drone for the first time in the armed conflict in the southeast of the country, in violation of the peace agreement between the parties. Following the strike, a group of reconnaissance officers from the Armed Forces of Ukraine infiltrated and captured the village of Staromaryevka located in the so-called “grey zone” between the DPR (the unrecognized Donetsk People’s Republic) and Ukraine. Such operations are very much to the liking of Ukraine’s partner countries in Eastern Europe. In the autumn of 2021, Minister of Defence of the Republic of Latvia Artis Pabriks suggested that EU and NATO countries follow Ankara’s example and learn from its experience in developing relations with Kiev without taking the position of Moscow into consideration.

In this context, it is worth noting a certain incongruence between the approaches of the United States and Turkey’s other NATO allies to its actions in the Caucasus and Ukraine. France could not (and cannot) tolerate Ankara’s unequivocal support for Baku, while the United States has adopted a position of cautious restraint. Washington and Paris are co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, and they are concerned about Turkey’s “revisionism” in the Caucasus. This explains why both the French and the American sides are prepared to put up with Russia being the only major player in Nagorno-Karabakh as an inevitability or a lesser evil.

ALSO READ :  The Political Imbroglio And The Solution

There is an Armenian lobby in the United States and France. Without exaggerating the role that it plays in the politics of both countries, we can say that the issues of Karabakh independence and the Armenian genocide in the Ottoman Empire are present in the American and French narratives. Yet there is no scenario in which one could possibly imagine a discussion of the self-determination of the Donbass republics taking place in Congress or the National Assembly of France. It is unlikely that influential groups (not individual members of parliaments) calling for the recognition of Crimea as part of Russia will appear in either country any time soon.

Thus, the collective West sees Turkey’s advances in Ukraine as being far less nuanced than the strengthening of the strategic alliance between Turkey and Azerbaijan. Some countries of the “New Europe” even believe that Ankara is acting as any NATO member can (and should) act in its relations with Ukraine—without any kind of political correctness or reservations, something that representatives of Germany, France, Italy, Hungary and other EU countries resort to from time to time. All this cannot but embolden Turkey to take new steps to build allied relations with Kiev. In turn, Ukraine, tired of sitting on its hands waiting for NATO to make up its mind about the country’s membership in the organization, is ready to welcome Turkey with open arms.

But does Turkey’s growing activity in the Black Sea necessarily mean that its relations with Russia will suffer greatly? Well, the answer to this question is not as clear-cut as it may seem at first. To understand why this is the case, it is vital to examine the foundations on which the bilateral partnership between Ukraine and Turkey was built.

Ukraine and Turkey: It is more than just about Crimea

For Ukraine, President Erdogan and the Turkish establishment are a sympathetic audience, especially when it comes to the loss of Kiev’s sovereignty over Crimea. Turkish officials miss no opportunity to stress that they do not recognize Russian authority over the peninsula.

But the Crimean Tatar community is an important domestic factor for Turkey. According to various estimates, approximately 4–5 million descendants of Crimean Tatars live in the country. Russian expert in Turkic languages and civilization Pavel Shlykov has noted that, “there are forces in Turkey that are ready to exploit the romantic moods of a part of the Turkish elite who dream of expanding more actively into the Caucasus, Crimea, the Volga Region and Central Asia, and who view Russia not as a partner, but as a geopolitical rival.” In this regard, it is no coincidence that Erdogan, justifying his initiative to act as a mediator between Moscow and Kiev, has pointed out just how important it is for the Black Sea region as a whole to see a positive resolution to the Crimean Tatar issue. During his visit to Ukraine in February, Erdogan met with a delegation from the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar People (an organization banned in the Russian Federation).

ALSO READ :  Nolte: Poll Reveals Slim Majority in Favor of States Banning Trump from Ballot

But Turkey does not focus on Crimea only. The Turkish elite, realizing the complexity of relations between Moscow and Kiev, uses Ukrainian channels to express its dissatisfaction with Russian stance on other foreign policy issues. This was the case during Erdogan’s visit to Kiev on February 3, 2020, which was timed to coincide with the 28th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the Republic of Turkey and post-Soviet Ukraine. It also took place against the backdrop of a sharp military escalation in Syria. The Turkish President lambasted the Russian leadership for deliberately turning a blind eye to the actions of the “Syrian regime.”

We should keep in mind that contacts with Bartholomew I of Constantinople are extremely important for the Ukrainian leader, Volodymyr Zelensky (as they were for his predecessor Petro Poroshenko), as he wants to use the Archbishop’s influence to fuel the “nationalization” of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine. And there are no two ways about it—he needs Erdogan to do this. Arguably, Ukraine is willing to showcase its privileged relations with Azerbaijan, while it also seems poised to affirm the policy of non-recognition towards the genocide of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire. Following the Second Karabakh War, Kiev has noted a change in the behaviour of the Azerbaijani leadership, deeming it more relevant to today than the example of the 1995 “pacification” of the Republic of Serbian Krajina it relied on before.

However, despite the commonality of interests and growing cooperation between the sides, Ankara will most likely try to compensate for its emotions with regard to Ukraine by being pragmatic in its relations with Russia. No matter how intensively cooperation between Ankara and Kiev may develop, Erdogan is not trying to give up its role as an “intermediary” between Ukraine and Russia. He is under no illusion that the West would be satisfied if it were Turkey pulling the chestnuts out of the fire and not the “Euro-Atlantic brotherhood.” But the Turkish leadership is trying to raise its profile in the dialogue with the United States and the European Union by appealing to its “special relations” with Moscow. For all intents and purposes, this looks similar to how Ankara is conducting the dialogue with the European Union around the problem of refugees and migrants from the Middle East. For Turkey, getting caught up in an open confrontation with Russia would mean losing its status as a “special member” of NATO that needs to be coaxed and coddled.

Over recent years, Erdogan has thrown down the gauntlet to a number of countries, such as when putting Moscow, Washington, Beijing, and New Delhi, among others, on notice. However, by embracing his image as a major troublemaker, the President of Turkey has repeatedly shown that he is able to rationalize confrontation. This was the case in 2016 when Turkey and Russia disagreed over Syria, and in 2021 when Joe Biden called the tragedy of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire a genocide.

However, no matter how the Turkish President and his inner circle maneuver, Turkey is becoming more and more militarily and politically involved in post-Soviet affairs with each passing day. And we are no longer talking exclusively about the Caucasus region. It appears as if Erdogan wants to become one of the key actors in the Ukrainian game—a player without whom any reconfiguration in the Black Sea region would be, if not impossible, then extremely unlikely.


Discover more from The Monitor

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Continue Reading
Advertisement
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Analysis

Brown University Shooting Sparks Renewed Manhunt After Suspect Released

Published

on

Providence, R.I. — The tranquil campus of Brown University was shattered this weekend by a deadly shooting that left two students dead and nine others wounded during final exams. As the community reels from the violence, authorities have reset their manhunt after releasing a previously detained person of interest, citing new evidence that “points in a different direction”.

The shooting occurred Saturday afternoon inside the Barus & Holley engineering building, a hub of student activity and academic rigor. Witnesses described chaos erupting as gunfire rang out during a packed exam session. One student, still visibly shaken, told reporters, “We were just trying to finish our semester. Then everything changed in seconds.”

A Campus in Mourning

Brown University President Christina Paxson issued a statement calling the attack “an unspeakable tragedy,” and announced that classes and exams would be suspended for the week. Vigils have sprung up across campus, with students lighting candles and leaving handwritten notes outside the building where the shooting occurred.

“This is not just a university story,” said Rhode Island Governor Daniel McKee. “This is a story about young lives cut short, families devastated, and a community that deserves answers”.

The Search Intensifies

On Monday, Providence Police released new surveillance footage showing a masked individual dressed in black walking near the scene shortly before the attack. The FBI has joined the investigation, offering a $50,000 reward for information leading to the arrest and conviction of the suspect, described as a male approximately 5’8″ with a stocky build.

ALSO READ :  Taboola Launches New Global Partner Program ‘Taboola PRO’

“This individual definitely targeted Brown University,” said Chief Colonel Oscar L. Perez, Jr. at a press conference. “We are exploring all possible motives, but this was not random”.

The suspect remains at large, and the search has expanded beyond Providence into neighboring states. Federal agents have been deployed to canvass neighborhoods, analyze digital evidence, and follow up on community tips.

A Community Demands Justice

The release of the initial detainee has sparked frustration among students and families, many of whom are demanding transparency and swift justice. “We want to see the individual that pulled the trigger on these young kids apprehended, identified and brought to justice,” said Governor McKee.

Brown University has set up emergency counseling services and a dedicated hotline for students and staff affected by the tragedy. Meanwhile, the broader academic community is grappling with the implications of violence in spaces meant for learning and growth.

What Comes Next

As the investigation unfolds, questions linger: Was this an isolated act or part of a broader threat? What security lapses allowed the gunman to enter a campus building undetected? And how will Brown—and universities nationwide—respond to the growing specter of campus violence?

For now, Providence remains on edge. Helicopters circle overhead, police checkpoints dot the city, and a once-quiet Ivy League campus finds itself at the center of a national reckoning.


Discover more from The Monitor

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Continue Reading

Biography

Tributes Pour In for Rob Reiner, 78, as Hollywood Mourns a Storyteller Who Shaped an Era

Published

on

The death of filmmaker Rob Reiner at age 78 has prompted an outpouring of tributes across the entertainment world, as colleagues, actors, and cultural figures reflect on the legacy of a director whose work helped define modern American cinema. Reiner and his wife, Michele Singer Reiner, were found dead in their Los Angeles home, according to police statements released this week.

Reiner’s passing—under circumstances now the subject of an active homicide investigation—has sent shockwaves through Hollywood and beyond. Authorities confirmed that the couple’s son, Nick Reiner, has been taken into custody and “booked for murder,” though charges have not yet been formally filed. The Los Angeles Police Department has said the case remains open as detectives continue their inquiry.

A Career That Spanned Generations

Rob Reiner’s influence on American storytelling is difficult to overstate. From the comedic brilliance of This Is Spinal Tap to the emotional resonance of Stand By Me, When Harry Met Sally, and A Few Good Men, Reiner’s films became cultural touchstones—quoted, revisited, and taught in film schools for decades.

His work blended humor with humanity, often exploring the fragile, complicated bonds between people. Reiner’s films were rarely just entertainment; they were emotional experiences that lingered.

Colleagues described him as a director with an uncanny ability to draw out vulnerability from actors while maintaining a light, collaborative set. “Rob had a way of making you feel safe enough to take risks,” one longtime collaborator said in a tribute posted shortly after news of his death broke.

ALSO READ :  US-China Decoupling Could Jeopardize AI Governance: Insights from Henry Kissinger

A Loss Felt Across Hollywood

As news spread, tributes began flooding social platforms and industry circles. Actors who grew up watching his films shared memories of the first time they encountered The Princess Bride or Misery. Directors spoke of Reiner’s craftsmanship—his ability to move seamlessly between genres without losing his signature warmth.

Industry veterans noted that Reiner’s career bridged eras: from the golden age of network television, where he first gained fame on All in the Family, to the rise of prestige filmmaking in the 1980s and 1990s, and finally to the streaming era, where his classics found new audiences.

His death, many said, marks the end of a particular Hollywood lineage—one rooted in character-driven storytelling, emotional honesty, and a belief that films could be both deeply personal and universally resonant.

A Family Tragedy Under Public Scrutiny

The circumstances surrounding Reiner’s death have added a layer of heartbreak to the tributes. Police confirmed that both Reiner and his wife were found dead in their Brentwood home, and that their son Nick was arrested shortly thereafter. The case has drawn intense media attention, with officials urging the public to allow investigators space to complete their work.

Despite the grim backdrop, those who knew Reiner have focused their public statements on his life rather than the tragedy. “Rob Reiner changed the way America tells stories,” one filmmaker wrote. “His films helped us understand ourselves.”

A Legacy That Will Endure

Reiner’s influence will continue to ripple through Hollywood for generations. His films remain staples of American culture—quoted at weddings, referenced in political debates, and rediscovered by new audiences every year.

ALSO READ :  Taboola Launches New Global Partner Program ‘Taboola PRO’

For many, the loss feels personal. Reiner’s work was woven into the fabric of everyday life: the comfort of a familiar line, the catharsis of a well-crafted scene, the joy of a story told with sincerity.

As Hollywood mourns, one truth is clear: Rob Reiner didn’t just make movies. He made memories.


Discover more from The Monitor

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Continue Reading

Corruption

Transparency International Pakistan releases NCPS 2025

Published

on

ISLAMABAD—Transparency International Pakistan (TIP) on Tuesday released its comprehensive National Corruption Perception Survey (NCPS) 2025, presenting a mixed picture of public sentiment on corruption, anti-graft efforts, and governance across the country.

The survey, conducted with 4,000 respondents from all four provinces, reveals that while a significant majority of citizens did not report paying a bribe in the last year, three key public sectors—the Police, Tender/Procurement, and the Judiciary—continue to be perceived as the most corruption-prone institutions.

Police Top List Despite Perception Improvement

According to the NCPS 2025 findings, the Police remains the most corrupt sector in the eyes of the public, cited by 24% of respondents nationwide. This is followed by the Tender and Procurement process at 16%, and the Judiciary at 14%.

However, the report highlighted a subtle but “notable” positive shift in public perception regarding the Police, registering a 6% improvement in perceived behaviour and service delivery compared to the previous survey.

Low Bribery Rate vs. High Dissatisfaction

The survey’s most encouraging statistic is that a majority of citizens (66%) reported they did not feel compelled to pay a bribe for public services in the past 12 months, which TIP considers a strong indicator of perceived progress in service delivery. Provincially, Sindh reported the highest rate of citizens encountering a demand for a bribe at 46%.

Despite the low rate of personal bribery, public satisfaction with the government’s overall efforts to combat corruption remains low. A significant 77% of respondents nationwide expressed “low satisfaction” or were “not satisfied” with the government’s anti-corruption drive.

ALSO READ :  Cowboys VS 49ers: A Clash of Titans in the NFL

The public identified the three major causes driving corruption as a lack of accountability (15%), lack of transparency and limited access to information (15%), and delays in the disposal of corruption cases (14%).

Demand for Accountability of Anti-Graft Bodies

The survey findings reflect a strong public demand for institutional reform and accountability. An overwhelming 78% of Pakistanis believe that anti-corruption institutions like the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) and the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) should themselves be more accountable and transparent.

Citizens also proposed a blueprint for curbing corruption, prioritising:

  • Enhancing accountability (26%)
  • Limiting discretionary powers (23%)
  • Strengthening Right to Information laws (20%)

The report also found a notable lack of awareness regarding reporting channels, with 70% of citizens being unaware of any official corruption reporting mechanism. Furthermore, 42% stated they would feel safe reporting corruption only if strong whistleblower protection laws were in place.

Economic Stability and Political Finance

On economic matters, approximately 58% of respondents indicated that the government has either fully or partially stabilised the economy, crediting the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme and the country’s exit from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) Grey List. However, 57% reported a decline in their purchasing power over the past year.

The survey also highlighted a strong public desire for clean electoral financing, with a combined 83% of respondents supporting either a complete ban or strict regulation of business funding to political parties.

In response to the report, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif welcomed the survey, stating that the large number of respondents who reported not encountering corruption during his government reflects the public’s recognition of the reforms aimed at transparency and economic recovery.

ALSO READ :  Taboola Launches New Global Partner Program ‘Taboola PRO’

For more details on the survey’s public opinion findings, watch this report: Transparency International Report on Corruption – Public Opinion – 9 Dec 2025.


Discover more from The Monitor

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Continue Reading
Advertisement
Advertisement

Facebook

Advertisement

Trending

Copyright © 2019-2025 ,The Monitor . All Rights Reserved .

Discover more from The Monitor

Subscribe now to keep reading and get access to the full archive.

Continue reading