Democratic Transition And Prospects For PTI in GE-2018

Elections in Pakistan have always been Marred by Turmoil, rigging, Horse trading, Nepotism, favouritism, manipulation and bartering of votes.The Voters are influenced and threatened to face dire consequences if they did not vote and support any specific  Party Leader usually a traditional  Feudal who even warns to forcibly displace or disappear any person if they or their favourite candidate was not voted. In the past several decades, Pakistan has never witnessed any free, fair and transparent elections.

However, The  Elections held in 1988 under Army are said to be the fair ones as people believe that people were given free choice to vote for their  Favourite candidates. Luckily, PPP under Benazir with simple majority  formed their Government.

Afterwards, PPP and  PML-N had their turns  one after another and maintained their duopoly until General Parvez Musharraf’s Toppling of  PML-N second Government when his Plane was denied landing  and  Even The Army chief was changed in his absence while he was on the official visit.

The Army supported their General and helped him become the Marshal Law administrator and then President after Holding a Public Referendum.

Musharraf enjoyed the largest tenure as Martial Law Administrator and then President of Pakistan  After  General Zial Haque who had enjoyed the largest tenure as both Martial Law Administrator and Then President. Though ,later he declared  that  he had not imposed any Martial law.

It is Irony that Pakistan has experienced mostly   Military Coups  than Civilian Governments as a result we  had  Iskandar Mirza, General Ayoob Khan, General Yahya, General Zial Haq, Zulfiquar Ali Bhutto  and Musharraf as CMLAs though General Musharraf Declared  that  It was not  Martial Law but when he imposed  Emergency in the  country  and  kept the  constitution in abeyance . The people called it Martial  Law or Military Rule  as the constitution was suspended.

His reforms especially for improving and reforming Local Governance System and an introduction of  New  Local Governance system in which  Commissionerate  System was replaced with District Governments where the District Nazim was the  Most Powerful Administrator whereas a Grade  20 Officer worked as District coordination officer to ensure coordination between the  Various Departments.

Each  Department was headed by a grade 19/20 Officer as Executive  District officer such as EDO (finance and Planning) EDO (education ) EDO (Health), EDO (Revenue ) EDO (Agriculture  ) and So. It was the first time that Finance Department was devolved at District Level which benefitted the  People since each Departmental Budget was released from Account-IV of District instead of  Account-I i.e. Provincial Government.

The  District Nazim with help of  EDO(F&P) prepared their own budget and approved the required schemes upon the recommendation of the District Council members and thus over 80 % of the allocated budget was utilized. Such Utilization changed the shape of Urban and Rural areas and Development was evident from the Massive Development schemes and their Proper Implementation.

The  Mayor Karachi, Naimutullah Khan did the best and changed the whole scenario of Karachi and made a very  Clean and Green City and later the MQMs Mustafa Kamal became Mayor Karachi and targeted the own areas for Development.

Musharraf held a so called referendum and got himself elected as President and then Held Elections in which his party  PML Q came into power and formed the Government in Sindh, Center and Punjab. Then in his era, Benazir Bhutto was assassinated and he was held responsible for Benazir Killing. The Country experienced bloody Riots as  the angry mobs set the  Govt Buildings, Banks, Schools and  Police  Station on fire and there was Chaos all-around since  Musharraf had stopped the Security Personnel not to resist or stop the Protesters who were protesting against the Brutal Killing of their  Leader Benazir  Bhutto.

At least Benazir  Bhutto was successful to make Musharraf as a civilian President when he was compelled through Political Pressure to withdraw from Military Uniform.

PPP  won  2008 Election owing to sympathy vote and Yousuf raza   Gillani Became the Prime Minister and then Musharraf was given  Clear passage to leave the country and Zardari became the President of  Pakistan and completed their Tenure of Five Years.  Even Supreme court disqualified Gillani over defiance to Write a letter to swiss Government to Freeze the Bank accounts of  Zardari   by awarding 30 second Sentence . Thus , Raja Parvez Asharaf replaced him as PM

It was the first time that any Democratic Government had completed its tenure, As earlier, none was able to complete their tenure since most of the civilian governments lasted for  2 to three years hardly which were either dissolved by the presidents under articles  58 2B or ousted by  CMLAs.

Then in 2013, PML –N came to power and Formed their Government and  Mian Mohammad Nawaz Sharif Became the only Person in the History who had become the  PM third time in Pakistan . As PPP Government had brought 18th Amendment and made the way for the PM third time to hold the Office and given Provincial Autonomy .

The PML N- Government came under fire when PTI complained that there was rigging in General Elections. Even the Speaker  NA  Ayaz Sadique was disqualified and there was re-poll on his constituency but he re-won the seat and became the Speaker again.  The Model town incident and  Long March and  Dharnas became the order of the Day and then the tremors of   Panama Leaks shook the world hard and  The Names of Mian Nawaz Sharif, His Sons Hassan and Hussain Nawaz and Her daughter came in corruption list of  Panama Papers. All the  Parties  Started protests and demanded resignation from  Nawaz Sharif but his stubbornness cost him lot and he was disgraced publically when he was disqualified on 20^th April, 2017 by   Supreme Court of  Pakistan after the JIT  findings in Panama Papers Case.

Nawaz’s Bad luck did not stop here, He was sentenced on Friday, July 6, 2018, for  Ten Years and His  Daughter  Mariam Nawaz for  7 Years and His  Son law Captain Safdar for one Year in Aven Field  Reference Filed by NAB  under Directions of  Supreme court of Pakistan.

With Elections 2018 are just three days Away, All the Political Parties are busy in their Election campaigns. Some of  The Election rallies are targeted by Suicide  Bombings in Mastung and Among the dead were the Workers of  Baluchistan Awami Party) including the party’s provincial candidate, Siraj Raisani whereas in Peshawar Suicide Attack ANP Leader for Provincial Seat Haroon Ahmed Bilour was killed and other Party workers were also Killed in the Suicide Blast .

The  Political  Pundits and  Analysts are of the View that  the PTI enjoys a Strong position in KPK, Punjab and Sindh followed by  Alliance of  Religious Parties  (Muttahida Majlis e-Amal  ) MMA has also strong position in KPK, Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan. The  Baluchistan is Center for religious parties and has always Mix support for  Nationalists such as Baluchistan Awami Party, National Party of Pakistan,  JUI, PPP and  PML – N.

In Sindh, the  Old Parties such as  MQM has strong hold in Urban Population of  Karachi , Hyderabad ,Mirpur Khas whereas PPP has Strength in Interior Sindh . They are facing strong Resistance from Grand Democratic Alliance headed by PML-Functional  Head Pir Pagara and other Nationals. Though MQM has seat adjustment with GDA, yet MQM has always preferred to be in power be it PPP or PML-Q. The Other new Force is Pak Sarzameen Party (PSP) Headed by Mustafa Kamala. The  Party consists the old stalwarts of  MQM who left MQM after differences with  Farooque Sattar and joined PSP. This would be the First Election for them to  contest and prove their Strength.

It is estimated that GDA  will grab more than  40 Seats in Sindh and form their  Government in Sindh and will be recognized as an Alternate Force to PPP  .

It is very difficult to break the Monopoly of PPP in Sindh yet People are hopeful that they will  get rid of  PPP hegemony forever and will prefer Service Delivery. If  PTI  forms an alliance with GDA in Sindh, With National Party in Baluchistan and with  MMA in Punjab, KPK and Baluchistan, it will easily form Government and both  PPP and PML-N will sit in opposition benches.

Despite all this , it will be very difficult to  make any prediction before General  Election 2018  but as per the  Social  Media Surveys, Gallup  Pakistan Surveys and  Media Debates, It is  assumed that  PTI  will have the lion’s share in NA and PA  Seats in KPK, Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan followed by  MMA and  GDA in Sindh. The sympathy vote may play a role for   PML-N as their Leader Mian Nawaz Shareef is in Adiala jail along with his daughter as there is no any other chance for them as they were tested thrice by the People of Pakistan. PTI has brighter and stronger position to sweep the  GE-2018 and Elect Imran Khan as Next PM of  Pakistan Let   July 25, 2018, come and decide the Future of mainstream parties i.e PTI, PPP, PML-N or  MMA  who will be the Next PM. Let’s Wait for Elections Results to pour in.