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Will COVID-19 Remake the World? A Detailed Expert analysis

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Crises come in two variants: those for which we could not have prepared, because no one had anticipated them, and those for which we should have been prepared, because they were in fact expected. COVID-19 is in the latter category, no matter what US President Donald Trump says to avoid responsibility for the unfolding catastrophe. Even though the coronavirus itself is new and the timing of the current outbreak could not have been predicted, it was well recognized by experts that a pandemic of this type was likely.

SARS, MERS, H1N1, Ebola, and other outbreaks had provided ample warning. Fifteen years ago, the World Health Organization revised and upgraded the global framework for responding to outbreaks, trying to fix perceived shortcomings in the global response experienced during the SARS outbreak in 2003.

In 2016, the World Bank launched a Pandemic Emergency Financing Facility to provide assistance to low-income countries in the face of cross-border health crises. Most glaringly, just a few months before COVID-19 emerged in Wuhan, China, a US government report cautioned the Trump administration about the likelihood of a flu pandemic on the scale of the influenza epidemic a hundred years ago, which killed an estimated 50 million people worldwide.

No one should expect the pandemic to alter – much less reverse – tendencies that were evident before the crisis. Neoliberalism will continue its slow death, populist autocrats will become even more authoritarian, and the left will continue to struggle to devise a program that appeals to a majority of voters.

Just like climate change, COVID-19 was a crisis waiting to happen. The response in the United States has been particularly disastrous. Trump downplayed the severity of the crisis for weeks. By the time infections and hospitalizations began to soar, the country found itself severely short of test kits, masks, ventilators, and other medical supplies.

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The US did not request test kits made available by the WHO, and failed to produce reliable tests early on. Trump declined to use his authority to requisition medical supplies from private producers, forcing hospitals and state authorities to scramble and compete against one another to secure supplies.

Delays in testing and lockdowns have been costly in Europe as well, with Italy, Spain, France, and the United Kingdom paying a high price. Some countries in East Asia have responded a lot better. South Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong appear to have controlled the spread of the disease through a combination of testing, tracing, and strict quarantine policies.

Interesting contrasts have emerged within countries as well. In northern Italy, Veneto has done much better than nearby Lombardy, largely owing to more comprehensive testing and earlier imposition of travel restrictions. In the US, the neighboring states of Kentucky and Tennessee reported their first cases of COVID-19 within a day of each other. By the end of March, Kentucky had only a quarter of the number of cases as Tennessee, because the state acted much more quickly to declare a state of emergency and close down public accommodations.

For the most part, though, the crisis has played out in ways that could have been anticipated from the prevailing nature of governance in different countries. Trump’s incompetent, bumbling, self-aggrandizing approach to managing the crisis could not have been a surprise, as lethal as it has been. Likewise, Brazil’s equally vain and mercurial president, Jair Bolsonaro, has, true to form, continued to downplay the risks.

On the other hand, it should come as no surprise that governments have responded faster and more effectively where they still command significant public trust, such as in South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan.

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China’s response was typically Chinese: suppression of information about the prevalence of the virus, a high degree of social control, and a massive mobilization of resources once the threat became clear. Turkmenistan has banned the word “coronavirus,” as well as the use of masks in public. Hungary’s Viktor Orbán has capitalized on the crisis by tightening his grip on power, by disbanding parliament after giving himself emergency powers without time limit.

The crisis seems to have thrown the dominant characteristics of each country’s politics into sharper relief. Countries have in effect become exaggerated versions of themselves. This suggests that the crisis may turn out to be less of a watershed in global politics and economics than many have argued. Rather than putting the world on a significantly different trajectory, it is likely to intensify and entrench already-existing trends.

Momentous events such as the current crisis engender their own “confirmation bias”: we are likely to see in the COVID-19 debacle an affirmation of our own worldview. And we may perceive incipient signs of a future economic and political order we have long wished for.

So, those who want more government and public goods will have plenty of reason to think the crisis justifies their belief. And those who are skeptical of government and decry its incompetence will also find their prior views confirmed. Those who want more global governance will make the case that a stronger international public-regime health could have reduced the costs of the pandemic.

And those who seek stronger nation-states will point to the many ways in which the WHO seem to have mismanaged its response (for example, by taking China’s official claims at face value, opposing travel bans, and arguing against masks).

Via __PS

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Analysis

China warns US to choose between cooperation or confrontation: Blinken given ultimatum

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According to reports, China has warned the United States that it must choose between “cooperation or confrontation” in their relationship. The comments were made by Yang Jiechi, a senior Chinese diplomat, during a virtual meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. The meeting was the first high-level talks between the two countries since President Joe Biden took office.

The warning comes amid growing tensions between the US and China over a range of issues, including trade, human rights, and Taiwan. The two countries have been engaged in a trade war since 2018, which has seen both sides impose tariffs on each other’s goods. In addition, the US has imposed sanctions on Chinese officials over the treatment of Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang, while China has been accused of cracking down on democracy in Hong Kong.

The meeting between Blinken and Yang was described as “tough” and “frank” by both sides. While the US has said it wants to work with China on issues such as climate change and the pandemic, it has also called on China to respect human rights and stop its aggressive actions in the South China Sea.

Diplomatic Ultimatum

China's warning to US: "co-operation or confrontation."

China has warned the United States sternly, stating that it must choose between cooperation or confrontation. The ultimatum was delivered by China’s top diplomat, Yang Jiechi, during a virtual meeting with US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken.

Blink en’s Response

Blinken responded that the US is not seeking confrontation with China, but rather wants to ensure that the relationship between the two countries is based on “fairness, reciprocity and respect for international rules and norms.” He also emphasised the importance of addressing human rights issues in China, including the treatment of Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang.

US-China Relations

The relationship between the US and China has been strained in recent years, with both countries engaging in a trade war and accusing each other of human rights abuses. China’s warning to the US comes as tensions continue to rise between the two nations.

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It remains to be seen how the US will respond to China’s ultimatum, but the relationship between the two countries will be a key issue in international relations for the foreseeable future.

Areas of Cooperation and Confrontation

China warns US, emphasizing choice between cooperation or confrontation. Tension evident in body language and facial expressions

China and the United States have a complex relationship, with areas of both cooperation and confrontation. The following are some of the key areas where the two countries have worked together and where they have faced challenges.

Trade and Economic Policies

China and the United States are two of the world’s largest economies, and their trade relationship is critical to the global economy. However, the two countries have had a long-standing trade dispute, with the US accusing China of unfair trade practices, intellectual property theft, and currency manipulation. This has led to the imposition of tariffs on both sides, which has hurt businesses and consumers in both countries.

Military and Security Issues

China’s growing military power and territorial ambitions have raised concerns in the United States and other countries in the region. The US has accused China of militarizing the South China Sea, and has increased its military presence in the region in response. The two countries have also clashed over Taiwan, with the US supporting the island’s independence and China claiming it as part of its territory.

Human Rights and Cybersecurity

The US has raised concerns about China’s human rights record, particularly in relation to Tibet, Xinjiang, and Hong Kong. China has been accused of suppressing dissent, cracking down on religious and ethnic minorities, and violating international human rights standards. The two countries have also clashed over cybersecurity, with the US accusing China of state-sponsored hacking and cyber espionage.

In conclusion, the relationship between China and the United States is complex, with cooperation and confrontation in several key areas. While there are challenges to be addressed, there are also opportunities for the two countries to work together to address global issues such as climate change and economic development.

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Implications for International Relations

China's warning to US: "Co-operation or confrontation" in international relations

Allies’ Reactions

China’s warning to the US about the need to choose between “cooperation or confrontation” has implications for international relations, particularly about how US allies will react. The US has traditionally relied on its allies in the Asia-Pacific region to help counterbalance China’s growing influence. However, some of these allies, such as Japan and South Korea, have been hesitant to take a hardline stance against China, preferring instead to maintain good economic relations with their neighbour.

The recent warning from China could further complicate matters for the US and its allies, as it may force them to choose between maintaining good economic relations with China or siding with the US in a potential confrontation. This could lead to a fracturing of the US-led alliance system in the region, which could ultimately benefit China.

Global Strategic Balance

China’s warning also has implications for the global strategic balance. The US has been increasingly concerned about China’s military modernisation and its growing influence in the Asia-Pacific region. The US has responded by increasing its military presence in the region and strengthening its alliances with countries such as Japan and South Korea.

However, China’s warning could be seen as a challenge to the US’s strategic position in the region. If the US were to back down in the face of China’s warning, it could be seen as a sign of weakness, which could embolden China to further assert its influence in the region.

On the other hand, if the US were to take a hardline stance against China, it could risk escalating tensions and potentially even leading to a military confrontation. This would have serious implications for the global strategic balance, particularly given the nuclear capabilities of both countries.

Overall, China’s warning to the US has significant implications for international relations and the global strategic balance. The US and its allies will need to carefully consider their response in order to maintain stability and avoid further escalating tensions in the region.

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Analysis

Understanding China’s Alternative Order and Lessons for America

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The vision of Chinese President Xi Jinping for a new global order is reshaping international dynamics. This agenda seeks to challenge traditional Western dominance and establish a multipolar system based on Chinese principles. As China works towards redefining global institutions, norms, and power structures, it prompts a critical examination of the implications for the United States and the international community. This is especially important in today’s rapidly evolving global landscape.

China’s Vision for a New World Order

President Xi Jinping’s vision for a new global order is rooted in the idea of a “community with a shared future for mankind.” This vision encompasses key initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative, the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative, and the Global Civilization Initiative. By promoting common security, economic development, and state-determined political rights, China seeks to position itself as a central player in shaping the future of international relations.

Assessing China’s Progress and Challenges

While China’s aspirations for global leadership are evident, the effectiveness of its strategies and the reception from the international community are subject to scrutiny. Despite Beijing’s efforts to expand its influence, there are indications of setbacks and resistance. China’s assertive diplomatic approach, characterized by the “Wolf Warrior” style, has raised concerns and alienated potential allies. Additionally, economic challenges and growing scepticism towards China’s intentions have hindered its quest for global acceptance.

Lessons for America

As China’s alternative order gains momentum, the United States must reassess its approach to international relations and global leadership. By understanding the motivations behind China’s initiatives and the responses they elicit, America can adapt its strategies to navigate this evolving geopolitical landscape effectively. Embracing a nuanced perspective that acknowledges both China’s ambitions and limitations can inform a more constructive engagement with Beijing and the broader international community.

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Real-Time Data and Analysis

Recent data from the 2023 Pew Research Center study highlights the global perceptions of China and the United States. While China faces challenges in garnering favourable opinions and trust internationally, the United States maintains a stronger reputation for contributing to peace and stability. These findings underscore the importance of reputation, diplomacy, and soft power in shaping global perceptions and alliances.

Conclusion

In conclusion, China’s pursuit of an alternative world order presents both opportunities and challenges for the international community, including the United States. By critically examining China’s ambitions, successes, and setbacks, America can glean valuable insights for refining its own foreign policy and strategic priorities. As the global landscape continues to evolve, understanding China’s role and impact is essential for navigating the complexities of contemporary international relations.

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China

China’s Sinking Cities: The Looming Crisis of Subsidence and Rising Sea Levels

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Introduction

China’s coastal cities, home to over 400 million people, are facing a dual threat of subsidence and rising sea levels, according to a recent study. The study, published in the journal Science, found that a quarter of China’s coastal land will sink below sea level within a century, putting millions of lives and trillions of dollars in infrastructure at risk.

Subsidence and Sea Level Rise

Subsidence, or the sinking of the land, is a natural process that occurs when the ground settles or compacts over time. However, in China’s coastal cities, the process is being accelerated by human activities, such as the over-extraction of groundwater and the weight of buildings.

The study, conducted by researchers from the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the University of California, Berkeley, analyzed satellite data and found that the rate of subsidence in China’s coastal cities has increased by up to 50% in the past decade. The researchers also found that the subsidence is linked to changes in groundwater levels and the weight of buildings.

At the same time, sea levels are also rising due to climate change. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), sea levels have risen by about 3.3 millimetres per year over the past 25 years. In China’s coastal cities, the combination of subsidence and sea level rise is creating a crisis that is only expected to worsen in the coming decades.

Impact on Coastal Cities

The impact of subsidence and sea level rise on China’s coastal cities is already being felt. In Shanghai, the city’s iconic Bund waterfront has sunk by up to 2.6 meters over the past century, while in Tianjin, the city’s central business district has sunk by up to 2.5 meters.

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The subsidence is causing a range of problems, from increased flooding to damage to buildings and infrastructure. In some areas, the subsidence has caused roads and buildings to crack, while in other areas, it has led to the flooding of entire neighbourhoods.

The cost of addressing the subsidence and sea level rise crisis in China’s coastal cities is estimated to be in the trillions of dollars. The Chinese government has already spent billions of dollars on measures such as building sea walls and pumping sand onto eroding beaches. However, these measures are only a temporary solution and do not address the root causes of the subsidence.

Expert Opinions

Experts warn that the subsidence and sea level rise crisis in China’s coastal cities is a ticking time bomb. “The situation is very serious and requires urgent action,” said Dr. Xiaojun Yin, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Sciences and one of the authors of the study. “We need to reduce the extraction of groundwater and find ways to reduce the weight of buildings.”

Dr. Robert Nicholls, a professor of coastal engineering at the University of Southampton, agrees. “China’s coastal cities are facing a perfect storm of subsidence and sea level rise,” he said. “The Chinese government needs to take urgent action to address the root causes of the subsidence and invest in long-term solutions to protect its coastal cities.”

Conclusion

China’s coastal cities are facing a crisis of subsidence and sea level rise that is only expected to worsen in the coming decades. The crisis is being driven by human activities, such as the over-extraction of groundwater and the weight of buildings. The Chinese government needs to take urgent action to address the root causes of the subsidence and invest in long-term solutions to protect its coastal cities.

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The cost of addressing the crisis is estimated to be in the trillions of dollars, but the cost of inaction is likely to be much higher. Millions of lives and trillions of dollars in infrastructure are at risk. The Chinese government must act now to prevent a catastrophic flood from engulfing its coastal cities.

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