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Will COVID-19 Remake the World? A Detailed Expert analysis

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Crises come in two variants: those for which we could not have prepared, because no one had anticipated them, and those for which we should have been prepared, because they were in fact expected. COVID-19 is in the latter category, no matter what US President Donald Trump says to avoid responsibility for the unfolding catastrophe. Even though the coronavirus itself is new and the timing of the current outbreak could not have been predicted, it was well recognized by experts that a pandemic of this type was likely.

SARS, MERS, H1N1, Ebola, and other outbreaks had provided ample warning. Fifteen years ago, the World Health Organization revised and upgraded the global framework for responding to outbreaks, trying to fix perceived shortcomings in the global response experienced during the SARS outbreak in 2003.

In 2016, the World Bank launched a Pandemic Emergency Financing Facility to provide assistance to low-income countries in the face of cross-border health crises. Most glaringly, just a few months before COVID-19 emerged in Wuhan, China, a US government report cautioned the Trump administration about the likelihood of a flu pandemic on the scale of the influenza epidemic a hundred years ago, which killed an estimated 50 million people worldwide.

No one should expect the pandemic to alter – much less reverse – tendencies that were evident before the crisis. Neoliberalism will continue its slow death, populist autocrats will become even more authoritarian, and the left will continue to struggle to devise a program that appeals to a majority of voters.

Just like climate change, COVID-19 was a crisis waiting to happen. The response in the United States has been particularly disastrous. Trump downplayed the severity of the crisis for weeks. By the time infections and hospitalizations began to soar, the country found itself severely short of test kits, masks, ventilators, and other medical supplies.

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The US did not request test kits made available by the WHO, and failed to produce reliable tests early on. Trump declined to use his authority to requisition medical supplies from private producers, forcing hospitals and state authorities to scramble and compete against one another to secure supplies.

Delays in testing and lockdowns have been costly in Europe as well, with Italy, Spain, France, and the United Kingdom paying a high price. Some countries in East Asia have responded a lot better. South Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong appear to have controlled the spread of the disease through a combination of testing, tracing, and strict quarantine policies.

Interesting contrasts have emerged within countries as well. In northern Italy, Veneto has done much better than nearby Lombardy, largely owing to more comprehensive testing and earlier imposition of travel restrictions. In the US, the neighboring states of Kentucky and Tennessee reported their first cases of COVID-19 within a day of each other. By the end of March, Kentucky had only a quarter of the number of cases as Tennessee, because the state acted much more quickly to declare a state of emergency and close down public accommodations.

For the most part, though, the crisis has played out in ways that could have been anticipated from the prevailing nature of governance in different countries. Trump’s incompetent, bumbling, self-aggrandizing approach to managing the crisis could not have been a surprise, as lethal as it has been. Likewise, Brazil’s equally vain and mercurial president, Jair Bolsonaro, has, true to form, continued to downplay the risks.

On the other hand, it should come as no surprise that governments have responded faster and more effectively where they still command significant public trust, such as in South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan.

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China’s response was typically Chinese: suppression of information about the prevalence of the virus, a high degree of social control, and a massive mobilization of resources once the threat became clear. Turkmenistan has banned the word “coronavirus,” as well as the use of masks in public. Hungary’s Viktor Orbán has capitalized on the crisis by tightening his grip on power, by disbanding parliament after giving himself emergency powers without time limit.

The crisis seems to have thrown the dominant characteristics of each country’s politics into sharper relief. Countries have in effect become exaggerated versions of themselves. This suggests that the crisis may turn out to be less of a watershed in global politics and economics than many have argued. Rather than putting the world on a significantly different trajectory, it is likely to intensify and entrench already-existing trends.

Momentous events such as the current crisis engender their own “confirmation bias”: we are likely to see in the COVID-19 debacle an affirmation of our own worldview. And we may perceive incipient signs of a future economic and political order we have long wished for.

So, those who want more government and public goods will have plenty of reason to think the crisis justifies their belief. And those who are skeptical of government and decry its incompetence will also find their prior views confirmed. Those who want more global governance will make the case that a stronger international public-regime health could have reduced the costs of the pandemic.

And those who seek stronger nation-states will point to the many ways in which the WHO seem to have mismanaged its response (for example, by taking China’s official claims at face value, opposing travel bans, and arguing against masks).

Via __PS

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China’s Diplomatic Intervention in the Israel-Gaza War: A Call for Impartiality

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The recent Israel-Gaza war has caused widespread turmoil and devastation in the region. As the world struggles to come to terms with the aftermath of the conflict, China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, has called on major countries to be fair and impartial in their approach to resolving the crisis.

Wang Yi’s comments come at a time when tensions between Israel and Palestine are at an all-time high, with both sides accusing the other of instigating the conflict. The situation has been further exacerbated by the involvement of other countries, including the US, which has been accused of taking sides in the dispute.

In his statement, Wang Yi called on major countries to “uphold justice and fairness, and push for an early end to the violence and conflict.” He also stressed the need for a “comprehensive, just, and lasting solution” to the crisis, which would involve addressing the underlying issues that have led to the conflict.

Wang Yi’s comments have been welcomed by many in the international community who see them as a positive step towards resolving the crisis. However, there are also those who remain sceptical about China’s role in the conflict, given its historical support for Palestine and criticism of Israel’s actions.

Despite these concerns, it is clear that Wang Yi’s call for fairness and impartiality is a crucial one, particularly in a conflict where emotions are running high and tensions are at their peak. If major countries can come together to support a peaceful resolution to the crisis, it could provide a much-needed ray of hope for the people of Israel and Palestine, and help to prevent further bloodshed and suffering.

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In conclusion, the Israel-Gaza war is a complex and difficult issue that requires a nuanced and comprehensive approach. China’s call for fairness and impartiality is an important step in the right direction, and it is now up to major countries to work together to find a solution that is just, lasting and ultimately serves the best interests of all those involved.

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Western Moves to Contain China’s Rise and The New Global Order!

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I. Introduction

Many Western countries are actively working to limit China’s rise to power on the global stage. Their approach involves utilizing international law and norms to create a narrative that portrays China as a potential threat to the current world order. This strategy aims to curb China’s influence and prevent it from becoming a dominant force in the international community. By constructing this narrative, Western countries hope to gain support from other nations and strengthen their positions in the global arena. However, this approach may also lead to increased tensions and conflict between China and the West.

II. Western Countries’ Efforts to Contain China’s Rise

A. Use of International Law and Norms

Western nations have strategically harnessed international law and norms to impede China’s rise. This involves leveraging their diplomatic and economic influence to mould a narrative that portrays China as a disruptor of the established global equilibrium.

B. Creation of a Narrative Portraying China as a Threat to the World Order

The West, through its geopolitical manoeuvring, has meticulously crafted a narrative painting China as a menace to the prevailing world order. This narrative, however, raises questions about its veracity, as it seems detached from objective facts and is utilized to rationalize Western aggression against China.

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C. Lack of Factual Basis for the Narrative

Scrutinizing the narrative reveals a notable absence of a factual foundation. The depiction of China as a global threat appears to be a strategic fabrication, a tool wielded to legitimize Western actions against China and rally international support.

D. Use of the Narrative to Justify Western Aggression Against China

The narrative portraying China as a threat serves as a pretext for Western aggression against the emerging global power. This aggressive stance, built on a shaky foundation, not only distorts the reality of China’s peaceful rise but also contributes to an increasingly precarious global situation.

III. China’s Response to These Challenges

A. Efforts to Create a New World Order

In response to the challenges posed by Western containment strategies, China is actively engaged in creating a new world order that prioritizes equity and inclusivity. This involves a departure from the traditional power dynamics and a quest for a more balanced and fair global system.

B. Focus on Equity and Inclusivity

China’s approach to reshaping the world order underscores a commitment to equity and inclusivity. By advocating for a fair and just global environment, China aims to foster cooperation, mutual respect, and understanding among nations.

IV. Conclusion

A. Recap of the Main Points

The central theme revolves around Western attempts to stifle China’s ascent, deploying international law and norms to construct a narrative that casts China as a global threat. tIt also analyses China’s response, emphasizing its pursuit of a new world order marked by equity and inclusivity.

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B. Final Thoughts

The Western endeavours to contain China’s rise carry significant implications for global stability. Recognizing China’s ascendancy and engaging in collaborative efforts to construct a more equitable and just world order is not only prudent but essential for fostering a harmonious and cooperative international community. As we navigate these complex geopolitical waters, the imperative is to move beyond adversarial narratives and embrace a shared vision for a better future.

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The ‘Live and Let Live’ Era is Over: China and the US Are on a Collision Course

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Introduction

The notion of ‘live and let live’ has long been touted as a potential cornerstone for a stable and cooperative relationship between China and the United States, the world’s two largest economies. However, recent developments paint a rather grim picture, suggesting that this once-envisioned approach may be teetering on the brink of collapse.

A Brief History of ‘Live and Let Live’

The concept of ‘live and let live’ gained prominence during the Cold War era, when the US and the Soviet Union, the two dominant superpowers, sought to avoid direct confrontation while maintaining their respective spheres of influence. This approach, characterized by a degree of tolerance and accommodation, helped prevent global catastrophe.

In the context of China-US relations, ‘live and let live’ has been interpreted as a tacit agreement to coexist peacefully, acknowledging each other’s interests and refraining from interference in domestic affairs. This approach has been credited with fostering economic interdependence and preventing major conflicts.

The Erosion of ‘Live and Let Live’

Despite its potential benefits, the ‘live and let live’ approach between China and the US is facing increasing challenges. Several factors have contributed to this erosion, including:

  • Ideological Differences: The fundamental ideological differences between the two countries, with China’s authoritarian system contrasting sharply with the US’s democratic values, have created a persistent source of tension.
  • Economic Rivalry: The rapid rise of China’s economy has transformed the global landscape, leading to concerns about its economic dominance and potential threat to US interests.
  • Geopolitical Competition: The expanding geopolitical influence of China, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, has heightened US anxieties about its strategic ambitions.
  • Technological Advancement: China’s rapid technological advancements, particularly in areas like artificial intelligence and 5G, have raised concerns about potential US vulnerabilities.
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The Impact of Recent Developments

Recent developments have further strained the relationship between China and the US, making the ‘live and let live’ approach increasingly difficult to sustain:

  • Trade War: The ongoing trade war between the two countries has imposed significant economic costs and raised concerns about a broader decoupling of their economies.
  • Technology Crackdown: The US’s crackdown on Chinese technology companies, such as Huawei and TikTok, has intensified technological rivalry and raised concerns about protectionism.
  • Taiwan Tensions: The heightened tensions surrounding Taiwan, with China’s increasing military assertiveness, have raised fears of a potential conflict.
  • South China Sea Disputes: The ongoing territorial disputes in the South China Sea have remained a flashpoint for potential conflict.

The Path Forward

Amidst these challenges, the future of ‘live and let live’ between China and the US remains uncertain. Both countries face a difficult decision: to continue pursuing a cooperative approach or embrace a more confrontational stance.

A return to the ‘live and let live’ approach would require a significant shift in both countries’ attitudes and policies. It would demand a willingness to compromise, acknowledge each other’s interests, and refrain from provocative actions.

However, the path forward is fraught with challenges. The deeply entrenched ideological differences, economic rivalry, and geopolitical competition make it difficult to envision a return to the status quo.

Conclusion

The ‘live and let live’ approach between China and the US has served as a crucial stabilizing force in international relations. However, recent developments suggest that this approach is facing an existential crisis. Both countries must carefully consider the consequences of their actions and make a concerted effort to avert a downward spiral that could have devastating global consequences. Embracing a more cooperative approach, while acknowledging and addressing underlying differences, remains the only viable path forward for ensuring a stable and prosperous future for both nations.

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