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US-Pak Relations in Historical Perspective

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With the changing geostrategic Situation and after the Twitter blitz, Donald Trump turns to Pakistan to get rid of Afghan Mess and seeking help from Islamabad to influence the Taliban by bringing them to the negotiating table. The Russia Peace Talks with the participation of the stakeholders along with Insurgent Taliban leadership and Afghanistan Peace Council Delegation held talks in Moscow to reach an agreement but the talks, unfortunately, did not bear any fruit.

US-Pakistan relations have always been overcast with mistrust but this time, the onus has been felt and new terms of engagement have surfaced with New Government of Pakistan. Imran Khan in his exclusive interview With the Washington Post has made it clear that Pakistan is not hired Gun and will not fight anyone’s war.

 The Peace in Afghanistan is in favour of Pakistan and welcomed the letter by giving a positive response to Trump’s request. The Foreign Office will draft the reply to the letter and will present to Prime Minister Imran Khan for approval.

The analysts and political pundits have termed the development as positive and this time the Trump administration seems to be serious in engagement with Pakistan. The incoming US central command Lieutenant General Kenneth McKenzie has also said that he will engage with Pakistan on priority basis  as directed by the US  president to him since the US wants to come in direct talks with the insurgent Taliban and bring them to negotiating table to devise a sharable government plan and the possible amendments in the Afghan Constitution.

 With Kartarpur Corridor opening to facilitate the Sikh Pilgrims of India and the recent paradigm shift in US-Pakistan Relations  are being termed as watershed moments for both Pakistan and US to work together to bring Normalcy in Afghanistan Since both US and Pakistan has suffered a lot in so-called War on terror and Pakistan has done a lot more than expected as US Ally . 

Pakistan facilitated the US by giving her ground, Air and communication channels that played a vital role as a close ally in post 9/11 arena and the US bid for regime change in Afghanistan.   Pakistan has laid down unprecedented sacrifices of  Civil and Military sacrifices in thousands and what Pakistan is facing today in terms of Economic crisis that is because of being a close ally of US in  War on terror and have significantly lost its Investment and Trade opportunities at the helm of America. 

Donald Trump’s so-called irresponsible Twitter Tirade against Pakistan blaming that despite paying millions of Rupees in security aid, Pakistan has deceived the US or did not do the damn thing ,has stirred widespread criticism since the World Community is well aware that

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Pakistan Suffered a lot being a US ally and that is the mistrust that has become the Stalemate between US-Pak relations and the ambiguities that have stalled the diplomatic relations. 

With increasing US alignment towards India and signing various trade agreement with Modi Regime ,Trump Administration has also created the sense of disappointment in the circles of Civil and Military leadership of Pakistan that despite making us a scapegoat and used as the hired gun –the salt is being rubbed on our wounds by favouring our arch-rivals  since we have lost our near and dear ones in various terrorist activities infiltrated from Afghanistan and the India patronizing the Separatist movements in the province of Baluchistan.

The Indian spy captured from Baluchistan province, Kalbhushan Yadav, had publically confessed that how Indian Secret Agency Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) carried out various terrorist activities within Pakistan to bring instability through terrorism.

The US might have been advised by various think-tanks and Influencing bodies of political and diplomatic circles  that an ally who fought the war on terror as an important ally of US  and still bearing the brunt of Terrorist attacks -be it Army Public School attack, the attacks on various Shrine, Shia-Sunni Sectarian killings patronized by international forces, is left out when it comes the development option or trade relations or when Pakistan needed US support to fix its balance of Payments Issue  .

Instead of giving support, US withheld a huge chunk of security aid and even tried to influence the International Monetary Fund (IMF) not to offer any bailout package as the same may be used to repay Chinese loans. Thanks to Saudis and China helping Pakistan to fix the issue of balance payments that alignment towards alternative powers might have prompted the US to change its stance.

Pakistan has always responded in positive gesture and has been overburdened with Afghan Refugees influx caused by US air Strikes on Afghanistan for regime change, Dismantling AlQaida and nabbing the Osama bin Laden.

Pakistan has the majority of Afghan refugees in KPK and Sindh province and often found involved in terrorist links or activities as Pakistan Army and Rangers conducted various anti-terrorism operations under the National Action Plan in FATA and KPK to cleanse the terrorist elements and so far, achieved tremendous success in eradication of Terrorism and restoring  peace in the country.

On the other hand, US has always demanded from Pakistan to do more that is really disappointing and hurting. Despite all these odds, Pakistan’s civil and military leadership appears to be on the same page and ready to engage with the US on revised terms of engagement for the sake of peace.

Both Pakistan and the US have suffered losses, now, it is the time that they should serve the common interests of each other.Pakistan can  play  a key role in the Afghan peace process since this time ,the regional powers of Asia such as Russia, China, India, Pakistan, Turkey and US  intend to resolve the issue through dialogue as  American have failed in bringing peace despite  their  presence in Afghanistan and have been waging war for the last 17 years   . 

This is perhaps one of the longest wars they have fought and apparently, they are losing the ground since the Taliban seem to be much organized and have become a party for talks rather than an insurgent group. They have control of various provinces and possess great influence in its controlled areas.

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The Afghan Peace process will never succeed unless all the stakeholders are taken on board especially the Taliban leadership, as prior to the US-led Air strikes, Taliban had full control of all the areas of Afghanistan.

Owing to being a landlocked country, Afghanistan depends on Pakistan for the trade and supplies. The Peace Process may pave the way for Pakistan-Afghanistan Transit Trade Agreement (APTTA) that was bilateral trade agreement signed in 2010 that calls for greater facilitation in the movement of goods between these two countries.

The China Pakistan Economic Corridor is yet another trade route that will benefit Afghanistan if the peace agreement reaches between the Taliban and the Afghan Government. 

CPEC is a game changer not only for Pakistan but also for the Central Asian States. The analysts are of the view that CPEC may trigger Hybrid war since it has a very significant geostrategic position that will attract more countries towards it including the OPEC to use the Gawadar Port for transportation of Oil and LPG gas to the South Asian and Central Asian States.

It is imperative that Pakistan and US must work together for regional peace and especially reaching an agreement with the insurgent Taliban leadership so that Peace could be maintained and restored in Afghanistan.

The withdrawal plan for the NATO forces may be chalked out and the refugees’ crisis may be overcome since Pakistan has not been compensated in a real sense despite being overburdened by 1.45 million Afghan Refugees as per recent statistics of UNHCR and UNHCR termed Pakistan as World’s biggest country to host such high number of Refugees.

It is hoped that this change of attitude will benefit both the countries and will improve diplomatic relations and help find out lasting solutions to bring peace in war-torn Afghanistan and repatriation of Afghan refugees.

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Analysis

China warns US to choose between cooperation or confrontation: Blinken given ultimatum

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According to reports, China has warned the United States that it must choose between “cooperation or confrontation” in their relationship. The comments were made by Yang Jiechi, a senior Chinese diplomat, during a virtual meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. The meeting was the first high-level talks between the two countries since President Joe Biden took office.

The warning comes amid growing tensions between the US and China over a range of issues, including trade, human rights, and Taiwan. The two countries have been engaged in a trade war since 2018, which has seen both sides impose tariffs on each other’s goods. In addition, the US has imposed sanctions on Chinese officials over the treatment of Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang, while China has been accused of cracking down on democracy in Hong Kong.

The meeting between Blinken and Yang was described as “tough” and “frank” by both sides. While the US has said it wants to work with China on issues such as climate change and the pandemic, it has also called on China to respect human rights and stop its aggressive actions in the South China Sea.

Diplomatic Ultimatum

China's warning to US: "co-operation or confrontation."

China has warned the United States sternly, stating that it must choose between cooperation or confrontation. The ultimatum was delivered by China’s top diplomat, Yang Jiechi, during a virtual meeting with US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken.

Blink en’s Response

Blinken responded that the US is not seeking confrontation with China, but rather wants to ensure that the relationship between the two countries is based on “fairness, reciprocity and respect for international rules and norms.” He also emphasised the importance of addressing human rights issues in China, including the treatment of Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang.

US-China Relations

The relationship between the US and China has been strained in recent years, with both countries engaging in a trade war and accusing each other of human rights abuses. China’s warning to the US comes as tensions continue to rise between the two nations.

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It remains to be seen how the US will respond to China’s ultimatum, but the relationship between the two countries will be a key issue in international relations for the foreseeable future.

Areas of Cooperation and Confrontation

China warns US, emphasizing choice between cooperation or confrontation. Tension evident in body language and facial expressions

China and the United States have a complex relationship, with areas of both cooperation and confrontation. The following are some of the key areas where the two countries have worked together and where they have faced challenges.

Trade and Economic Policies

China and the United States are two of the world’s largest economies, and their trade relationship is critical to the global economy. However, the two countries have had a long-standing trade dispute, with the US accusing China of unfair trade practices, intellectual property theft, and currency manipulation. This has led to the imposition of tariffs on both sides, which has hurt businesses and consumers in both countries.

Military and Security Issues

China’s growing military power and territorial ambitions have raised concerns in the United States and other countries in the region. The US has accused China of militarizing the South China Sea, and has increased its military presence in the region in response. The two countries have also clashed over Taiwan, with the US supporting the island’s independence and China claiming it as part of its territory.

Human Rights and Cybersecurity

The US has raised concerns about China’s human rights record, particularly in relation to Tibet, Xinjiang, and Hong Kong. China has been accused of suppressing dissent, cracking down on religious and ethnic minorities, and violating international human rights standards. The two countries have also clashed over cybersecurity, with the US accusing China of state-sponsored hacking and cyber espionage.

In conclusion, the relationship between China and the United States is complex, with cooperation and confrontation in several key areas. While there are challenges to be addressed, there are also opportunities for the two countries to work together to address global issues such as climate change and economic development.

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Implications for International Relations

China's warning to US: "Co-operation or confrontation" in international relations

Allies’ Reactions

China’s warning to the US about the need to choose between “cooperation or confrontation” has implications for international relations, particularly about how US allies will react. The US has traditionally relied on its allies in the Asia-Pacific region to help counterbalance China’s growing influence. However, some of these allies, such as Japan and South Korea, have been hesitant to take a hardline stance against China, preferring instead to maintain good economic relations with their neighbour.

The recent warning from China could further complicate matters for the US and its allies, as it may force them to choose between maintaining good economic relations with China or siding with the US in a potential confrontation. This could lead to a fracturing of the US-led alliance system in the region, which could ultimately benefit China.

Global Strategic Balance

China’s warning also has implications for the global strategic balance. The US has been increasingly concerned about China’s military modernisation and its growing influence in the Asia-Pacific region. The US has responded by increasing its military presence in the region and strengthening its alliances with countries such as Japan and South Korea.

However, China’s warning could be seen as a challenge to the US’s strategic position in the region. If the US were to back down in the face of China’s warning, it could be seen as a sign of weakness, which could embolden China to further assert its influence in the region.

On the other hand, if the US were to take a hardline stance against China, it could risk escalating tensions and potentially even leading to a military confrontation. This would have serious implications for the global strategic balance, particularly given the nuclear capabilities of both countries.

Overall, China’s warning to the US has significant implications for international relations and the global strategic balance. The US and its allies will need to carefully consider their response in order to maintain stability and avoid further escalating tensions in the region.

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Analysis

Understanding China’s Alternative Order and Lessons for America

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The vision of Chinese President Xi Jinping for a new global order is reshaping international dynamics. This agenda seeks to challenge traditional Western dominance and establish a multipolar system based on Chinese principles. As China works towards redefining global institutions, norms, and power structures, it prompts a critical examination of the implications for the United States and the international community. This is especially important in today’s rapidly evolving global landscape.

China’s Vision for a New World Order

President Xi Jinping’s vision for a new global order is rooted in the idea of a “community with a shared future for mankind.” This vision encompasses key initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative, the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative, and the Global Civilization Initiative. By promoting common security, economic development, and state-determined political rights, China seeks to position itself as a central player in shaping the future of international relations.

Assessing China’s Progress and Challenges

While China’s aspirations for global leadership are evident, the effectiveness of its strategies and the reception from the international community are subject to scrutiny. Despite Beijing’s efforts to expand its influence, there are indications of setbacks and resistance. China’s assertive diplomatic approach, characterized by the “Wolf Warrior” style, has raised concerns and alienated potential allies. Additionally, economic challenges and growing scepticism towards China’s intentions have hindered its quest for global acceptance.

Lessons for America

As China’s alternative order gains momentum, the United States must reassess its approach to international relations and global leadership. By understanding the motivations behind China’s initiatives and the responses they elicit, America can adapt its strategies to navigate this evolving geopolitical landscape effectively. Embracing a nuanced perspective that acknowledges both China’s ambitions and limitations can inform a more constructive engagement with Beijing and the broader international community.

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Real-Time Data and Analysis

Recent data from the 2023 Pew Research Center study highlights the global perceptions of China and the United States. While China faces challenges in garnering favourable opinions and trust internationally, the United States maintains a stronger reputation for contributing to peace and stability. These findings underscore the importance of reputation, diplomacy, and soft power in shaping global perceptions and alliances.

Conclusion

In conclusion, China’s pursuit of an alternative world order presents both opportunities and challenges for the international community, including the United States. By critically examining China’s ambitions, successes, and setbacks, America can glean valuable insights for refining its own foreign policy and strategic priorities. As the global landscape continues to evolve, understanding China’s role and impact is essential for navigating the complexities of contemporary international relations.

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China

China’s Sinking Cities: The Looming Crisis of Subsidence and Rising Sea Levels

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Introduction

China’s coastal cities, home to over 400 million people, are facing a dual threat of subsidence and rising sea levels, according to a recent study. The study, published in the journal Science, found that a quarter of China’s coastal land will sink below sea level within a century, putting millions of lives and trillions of dollars in infrastructure at risk.

Subsidence and Sea Level Rise

Subsidence, or the sinking of the land, is a natural process that occurs when the ground settles or compacts over time. However, in China’s coastal cities, the process is being accelerated by human activities, such as the over-extraction of groundwater and the weight of buildings.

The study, conducted by researchers from the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the University of California, Berkeley, analyzed satellite data and found that the rate of subsidence in China’s coastal cities has increased by up to 50% in the past decade. The researchers also found that the subsidence is linked to changes in groundwater levels and the weight of buildings.

At the same time, sea levels are also rising due to climate change. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), sea levels have risen by about 3.3 millimetres per year over the past 25 years. In China’s coastal cities, the combination of subsidence and sea level rise is creating a crisis that is only expected to worsen in the coming decades.

Impact on Coastal Cities

The impact of subsidence and sea level rise on China’s coastal cities is already being felt. In Shanghai, the city’s iconic Bund waterfront has sunk by up to 2.6 meters over the past century, while in Tianjin, the city’s central business district has sunk by up to 2.5 meters.

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The subsidence is causing a range of problems, from increased flooding to damage to buildings and infrastructure. In some areas, the subsidence has caused roads and buildings to crack, while in other areas, it has led to the flooding of entire neighbourhoods.

The cost of addressing the subsidence and sea level rise crisis in China’s coastal cities is estimated to be in the trillions of dollars. The Chinese government has already spent billions of dollars on measures such as building sea walls and pumping sand onto eroding beaches. However, these measures are only a temporary solution and do not address the root causes of the subsidence.

Expert Opinions

Experts warn that the subsidence and sea level rise crisis in China’s coastal cities is a ticking time bomb. “The situation is very serious and requires urgent action,” said Dr. Xiaojun Yin, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Sciences and one of the authors of the study. “We need to reduce the extraction of groundwater and find ways to reduce the weight of buildings.”

Dr. Robert Nicholls, a professor of coastal engineering at the University of Southampton, agrees. “China’s coastal cities are facing a perfect storm of subsidence and sea level rise,” he said. “The Chinese government needs to take urgent action to address the root causes of the subsidence and invest in long-term solutions to protect its coastal cities.”

Conclusion

China’s coastal cities are facing a crisis of subsidence and sea level rise that is only expected to worsen in the coming decades. The crisis is being driven by human activities, such as the over-extraction of groundwater and the weight of buildings. The Chinese government needs to take urgent action to address the root causes of the subsidence and invest in long-term solutions to protect its coastal cities.

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The cost of addressing the crisis is estimated to be in the trillions of dollars, but the cost of inaction is likely to be much higher. Millions of lives and trillions of dollars in infrastructure are at risk. The Chinese government must act now to prevent a catastrophic flood from engulfing its coastal cities.

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