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Who will win French election 2022?

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Nicolas Sarkozy snubs centre-right hopeful in favour of Emmanuel Macron

France will vote for its new president in April in an election marked by division over the ongoing response to Covid-19, balancing the nation’s economy, tackling unemployment and questions over national identity.

In a crowded field of candidates, President Emmanuel Macron – who is yet to officially announce his candidacy – will once again attempt to stave off the French far-right, with a rising conservative candidate also threatening to split the mainstream vote.

Here is everything you need to know about the latest in the election campaign, the candidates and their chances of winning. 

1

The latest

Valerie Pecresse, the outsider centre-right hopeful in the French presidential race, has suffered a setback after Nicolas Sarkozy declined to attend her forthcoming rally in Paris.

Pecresse’s campaign “has been widely criticised as uninspiring since her designation” as the Republicans’ contender, The Times said. But she hoped Sarkozy “would be present in the front row of a rally being touted by her supporters as a chance for a new start”.

The former president has “let it be known that he will be otherwise engaged on Sunday”, the paper reported, “heightening concern in the Pecresse camp over his reluctance to back her publicly”.

Macron has been handed a further boost through the endorsement of Eric Woerth, a labour and budget minister in governments led by Sarkozy. The announcement had “raised questions about the possible stance of Sarkozy in the election”, France 24 said.

Making his support for Macron public, Woerth said that he did not “subscribe” to the arguments being put forward by Pecresse and her party, describing the serving president as the best option to “defend the interests of France and the French” in April’s election. 

His refusal to attend Pecresse’s forthcoming rally have added fuel to the fire of French media reports that are already “awash with reports that Sarkozy is critical” of her campaign”, The Times said.

She has come under fire for an “absence of eye-catching pledges”. But Sarkozy is reportedly “angry she has failed to mention him as her inspiration”, preferring instead to “pay tribute to the late centre-right president Jacques Chirac, whom Sarkozy disliked”.

2

The candidates

While he is yet to officially declare his candidacy, Emmanuel Macron is widely considered the favourite to win re-election come April. The serving president is expected to tout “new foreign investment projects in France and a booming economy as proof his economic reforms have been bearing fruit” after four years in the role, Reuters said.

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Macron, who leads La République En Marche (Republic Forward), has also set himself up for a conflict with those who refuse to be vaccinated, “ramping up his rhetoric against France’s minority of non-vaccinated people – less than 10% of the population – in part as a way of setting the political battle lines for the election”, The Guardian reported.

Valerie Pecresse, the candidate for the centre-right Républicains, declared her candidacy in July 2021 following the party’s internal primary. Nicknamed “the bulldozer”, she has stated that she will be France’s first female president, describing herself as “one-third Thatcher and two-thirds Merkel”, France 24 said.

Running for a third time, Marine Le Pen is once again the candidate for her far-right Rassemblement national (National Rally) party. The daughter of the party’s founder, Jean-Marie Le Pen, is opposed to globalisation, which she has previously blamed for negative economic trends, as well as standing against any expansion in the EU’s power.

She has previously called for a referendum on leaving the bloc, but since 2019 has said she no longer advocates France leaving the EU or the euro currency. Her party also calls for the “de-Islamisation” of French society, while Le Pen has argued in favour of the establishment of a privileged partnership with Russia.

Unlike previous campaigns, she has “bet on dropping the populist messaging that once characterised her”, The New York Times (NYT) said, pushing efforts to “un-demonize” her party and its association “with flashes of antisemitism and xenophobia”.

Le Pen’s decision to detoxify her image is in part a result of the rise of far-right candidate Eric Zemmour. Dubbed “the French Donald Trump” by Politico, the controversial former television pundit is racking up “far more prime-time TV slots and front-page stories than many of his rivals”.

Zemmour “admires the former US president”, according to The Guardian’s Paris correspondent Angelique Chrisafis, and has been “convicted for inciting racial hatred”. But those criminal convictions have not stopped his “meteoric” rise to fame as first a journalist and now the “new face” of the French far-right. 

From the left of the French political spectrum, Jean-Luc Melenchon, leader of the socialist Groupe La France insoumise, is also running for the top job. Like Le Pen, he is also on his third crack at winning the presidency. 

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A socialist, he stands for increased labour rights and the expansion of French welfare programmes. He also argues in favour of mass redistribution of wealth to rectify socioeconomic inequality and is an outspoken critic of the EU, which he claims has been corrupted and is now a tool for neoliberal ideology.

Christiane Taubira, the leftist unity candidate elected during the unofficial “people’s primary”, previously served as justice minister under president Francois Hollande. She also sat in the National Assembly of France for French Guiana from 1993 to 2012 and was a member of the European Parliament from 1994 to 1999.

Following her victory in the vote to select a candidate to lead the French left’s presidential campaign, she told activists: “We want a united left, we want a strong left and we have a great road in front of us.”

But the primary was “dogged by serious drawbacks”, France 24 said, including “the upfront refusal” by a number of leftist candidates “to pay any attention to its result”.

3

How the election works

The public will go to the polls and place their first votes on 10 April. 

If no candidate wins 50% of the vote, which the polls suggest is very unlikely, the election continues into a second-round run-off. In the second round, the top two candidates from the first round compete and the candidate with a majority wins. 

4

Who is leading in the polls?

According to Politico’s “Poll of Polls”, Macron leads the pack of candidates and would mop up 24% of first-round voters. He is ahead of Le Pen (17%), Pecresse (16%), Zemmour (13%) and Mélenchon (10%). Mayor of Paris Anne Hidalgo, who announced an outsider pitch for the presidency in September 2021, trails the leading pack on just 3%. 

The news site’s tracker suggests that Macron has increased his share of the first-round vote by one percentage point since he won in 2017 and that he would win a second-round run-off vote with 57% of the vote. Le Pen is forecast to pick up 43% of the vote in the second round, with Pecresse touted to run a closer race with 47% of the vote. 

This is reflected in the bookies’ odds*, which give Macron a 1/3 chance of retaining the presidency. Pecresse has shortest odds of 4/1, compared with 10/1 for Le Pen. Zemmour is on 12/1, while Melenchon trails on 20/1.

@theweek


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Analysis

Global Right-Wing Leaders Rally Behind Viktor Orbán as Hungary’s Pivotal 2026 Election Looms

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The spectacle was unmistakable: a carefully choreographed campaign video featuring a who’s who of international right-wing politics, each leader speaking directly to Hungarian voters with a singular message—reelect Viktor Orbán. Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, France’s Marine Le Pen, Argentina’s Javier Milei, Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu, and Germany’s Alice Weidel appeared alongside a roster of populist figures spanning continents, delivering what amounts to the most coordinated international endorsement campaign for a sitting European leader in recent memory. The video, released as Hungary’s April 12, 2026, parliamentary election enters its decisive phase, arrives at a moment of acute vulnerability for Orbán—trailing in polls, buffeted by economic stagnation, and facing the most serious electoral challenge of his fourteen-year tenure.

This unprecedented mobilization of global populist heavyweights reveals more than campaign theatrics. It exposes the architecture of an international movement that has quietly matured from ideological affinity into operational alliance, with Orbán positioned as its elder statesman and symbolic anchor. Yet paradoxically, this display of external support underscores a deeper anxiety: that the Hungarian strongman who once seemed politically invincible now requires rescue from abroad.

The Video: A Roll Call of Populist Power

The endorsement video reads like a directory of contemporary right-wing ascendancy. Giorgia Meloni, Italy’s prime minister and leader of the post-fascist Brothers of Italy party, praised Orbán’s “courage” in defending national sovereignty. Marine Le Pen, whose National Rally has become France’s dominant opposition force, lauded his resistance to Brussels’ overreach. Javier Milei, Argentina’s anarcho-capitalist president whose chainsaw-wielding campaign style captivated global libertarians, hailed Orbán as a kindred spirit in the fight against “progressive elites.”

Benjamin Netanyahu’s participation carries particular weight, given Israel’s traditionally cautious approach to European domestic politics. His endorsement signals both personal friendship with Orbán and calculated alignment with European leaders willing to buck the pro-Palestinian sentiments gaining traction in progressive circles. Alice Weidel, co-leader of Germany’s surging Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), which recently polled second nationally, brings the endorsement full circle to the heart of the European Union.

Matteo Salvini, Italy’s deputy prime minister and Meloni’s coalition partner, Andrej Babiš of the Czech Republic’s ANO movement, Herbert Kickl of Austria’s Freedom Party, and Janez Janša, Slovenia’s former prime minister, rounded out the European contingent. Even Switzerland’s Christoph Blocher and Brazil’s Eduardo Bolsonaro joined the chorus, transforming what might have been a regional political gesture into a statement of global right-wing solidarity.

Orbán’s Domestic Quagmire: The Rise of Péter Magyar

The irony is sharp: as international allies queue to endorse him, Orbán faces unprecedented domestic erosion. Recent polling shows his Fidesz party trailing the upstart Tisza Party, led by Péter Magyar, a former government insider turned crusader against systemic corruption. Magyar’s emergence represents something Orbán’s fragmented opposition coalition never achieved: a credible, charismatic alternative who speaks the language of patriotic conservatism while denouncing the kleptocratic apparatus Fidesz has constructed.

Magyar, once married to former Justice Minister Judit Varga, possesses the insider credibility to make accusations stick. His allegations—that Orbán’s circle operates a sophisticated patronage network siphoning EU funds, that judicial independence has been systematically dismantled, that media pluralism exists only in name—resonate because they come from someone who witnessed the machinery firsthand. Tisza’s polling surge to 30-35% represents the most serious electoral threat Orbán has faced since consolidating power in 2010.

Economic headwinds compound Orbán’s troubles. Hungary’s inflation rate, though moderating from its 2022-23 peaks, remains among the EU’s highest. The forint’s persistent weakness against the euro erodes purchasing power for ordinary Hungarians, belying Orbán’s promises of prosperity. Brussels’ decision to freeze billions in EU funds over rule-of-law concerns has starved public services and infrastructure projects, making the government’s corruption vulnerabilities tangible in citizens’ daily lives.

ALSO READ :  Global Right-Wing Leaders Rally Behind Viktor Orbán as Hungary's Pivotal 2026 Election Looms

The Populist International: Ideology Meets Infrastructure

The endorsement video is not merely symbolic—it reflects an increasingly institutionalized network. Orbán has methodically constructed what amounts to a populist international through formal and informal channels. The annual Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) meetings in Budapest have become pilgrimage sites for American and European right-wing figures. The Mathias Corvinus Collegium, Orbán’s lavishly funded conservative think tank and university, trains cadres across Europe in populist political methodology.

This network operates on shared ideological pillars: skepticism of supranational governance, hostility to liberal immigration policies, defense of “traditional” social values against progressive “gender ideology,” and a revisionist historiography that emphasizes national grievance over continental cooperation. Yet beneath ideological coherence lies pragmatic calculation. Orbán’s Hungary offers a laboratory for democratic backsliding wrapped in electoral legitimacy—a model that tantalizes leaders who seek expanded executive power while maintaining democratic façades.

The financial dimensions merit scrutiny. Orbán’s government has channeled contracts and favorable policies toward ideologically aligned businesses, creating an ecosystem where economic interest and political loyalty intertwine. This template attracts international allies not merely for its ideas but for its demonstration that populist governance can be materially rewarding for loyalists—a lesson not lost on leaders navigating their own patronage networks.

Geopolitical Stakes: Ukraine, Brussels, and the Future of European Cohesion

Hungary’s election transcends domestic politics, carrying implications that reverberate through European and transatlantic relations. Orbán has positioned himself as the EU’s primary internal disruptor on Ukraine policy, repeatedly blocking or delaying aid packages and sanctions against Russia. His maintained relationship with Vladimir Putin, including continued energy imports and diplomatic engagement, makes him Moscow’s most valuable asset within the European Union’s institutional architecture.

A Magyar-led government would likely normalize Hungary’s stance toward Kyiv and Brussels, removing a persistent irritant in EU decision-making. Yet Orbán’s retention would signal something more consequential: that populist disruption, even when economically costly and diplomatically isolating, remains electorally viable within the EU framework. This would embolden similar forces across the continent, from the AfD’s ambitions in Germany to Vox’s influence in Spain.

The rule-of-law dispute encapsulates deeper tensions about European integration’s trajectory. The European Commission’s activation of conditionality mechanisms to freeze Hungarian funds represents an unprecedented assertion of supranational authority over member state governance. Orbán frames this as vindication of his Brussels-as-imperial-overlord narrative; Magyar presents it as the natural consequence of systemic corruption. The election becomes a referendum on whether European voters prioritize sovereignty narratives or institutional accountability.

The Broader Meaning: Populism’s Resilience Test

The 2024-25 period witnessed populism’s mixed fortunes globally. Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency energized right-wing movements worldwide, providing psychological momentum and validating anti-establishment messaging. Yet populist forces also faced setbacks: the AfD’s electoral ceiling in German regional elections despite polling gains, National Rally’s failure to convert parliamentary strength into governmental power in France, and Brexit’s lingering economic hangovers tempering enthusiasm for EU exits elsewhere.

Orbán’s election represents a critical test case. He pioneered the populist playbook in the EU context—using democratic mechanisms to concentrate power, controlling media landscapes while maintaining nominal pluralism, rhetorically defying Brussels while materially benefiting from EU membership. His potential defeat would suggest this model’s limits: that economic underperformance and corruption exposure eventually erode populist support regardless of cultural warfare’s intensity.

Conversely, his survival would demonstrate populism’s resilience even under adverse conditions. If Orbán can weather economic stagnation, credible corruption allegations, and a charismatic challenger while trailing in polls, it suggests that identity-based political mobilization and nationalist messaging possess deeper roots than critics acknowledge. The international endorsements, rather than appearing as foreign interference, might resonate with voters receptive to framing the election as civilizational struggle between globalist elites and national sovereignty defenders.

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Campaign Dynamics: Domestic versus International Frames

Magyar’s campaign strategically reframes the contest away from Orbán’s preferred culture-war terrain. Rather than engaging grand debates about European identity or migration, Tisza emphasizes bread-and-butter concerns: healthcare system dysfunction, education funding, infrastructure decay, and the tangible costs of diplomatic isolation. Magyar’s messaging resonates particularly with younger voters and urban professionals who experience Orbán’s Hungary as opportunity constraint rather than cultural preservation.

The international endorsements risk reinforcing Magyar’s narrative that Orbán prioritizes global populist celebrity over Hungarian citizens’ welfare. Yet they also provide Fidesz with powerful visual content demonstrating that Hungary “matters” on the world stage—an appeal to national pride that has traditionally resonated with Orbán’s rural and older base. The competing frames—cosmopolitan disruption versus patriotic perseverance—will largely determine whether the endorsements help or hinder.

Fidesz retains formidable structural advantages despite polling deficits. The electoral system’s design favors larger parties through winner-take-all constituencies. State media saturation ensures Orbán’s message dominates in regions with limited independent journalism access. Campaign finance disparities are staggering, with Fidesz outspending all opposition forces combined by orders of magnitude, much of it from sources connected to government-friendly businesses.

Forward Outlook: What Orbán’s Fate Signals

The April 12 election’s outcome carries diagnostic value for populism’s trajectory in established democracies. An Orbán victory, particularly from a polling deficit, would suggest that incumbency advantages, message discipline, and structural control can overcome economic underperformance and corruption exposure. It would embolden international allies in the video to believe similar resilience awaits them during future challenges.

A Magyar victory would represent populism’s perhaps most significant electoral reversal in a major European state since Brexit. It would demonstrate that insider-turned-reformer candidates who credibly promise to dismantle corrupt systems while maintaining conservative cultural stances can fracture populist coalitions. The implications would extend beyond Hungary: opposition forces from Poland to Italy would study the Tisza playbook for replicability.

The geopolitical ramifications extend to Washington, Moscow, and Brussels. A Tisza government would likely reorient Hungary toward mainstream EU positions on Ukraine, potentially breaking the current pattern of unanimous-vote obstruction. It would remove a key Putin ally from within Western institutional architecture, though Hungary’s continued dependence on Russian energy ensures complete realignment remains distant. For the European Commission, it would vindicate the rule-of-law conditionality mechanism as an effective lever for promoting democratic standards.

Yet declaring outcomes prematurely risks analytical error. Fidesz has repeatedly defied polls and predictions, engineering victories through superior organization, strategic messaging adjustments, and effective base mobilization. The international endorsement video itself represents sophisticated campaign tactics—generating global media coverage, reinforcing supporter commitment, and framing the election in maximalist terms that could drive turnout.

Conclusion: A Referendum on Populist Governance

The parade of international leaders endorsing Viktor Orbán illuminates populism’s evolution from insurgent force to networked governance model. What began as disparate national reactions to globalization and cultural change has matured into a transnational movement with shared strategies, mutual support networks, and coordinated messaging. Orbán’s centrality to this ecosystem—as pioneer, mentor, and symbolic anchor—makes his electoral fate consequential far beyond Hungary’s borders.

Yet this very international prominence highlights populism’s central paradox. Movements that derive legitimacy from defending national sovereignty and opposing globalist elites now depend on cross-border coordination and external validation. The endorsement video intended to project strength instead reveals anxiety—the recognition that domestic achievements alone may not suffice, that external reinforcement becomes necessary when local support erodes.

Hungary’s April 12 election will not definitively settle populism’s future, but it provides a crucial data point. Whether voters prioritize cultural preservation narratives over economic performance and institutional accountability will signal how durable populist governance models prove when confronted with their own contradictions. The world’s right-wing leaders have placed their bets on Orbán; Hungarian voters will render the verdict on whether that gamble pays dividends or accelerates decline.


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Analysis

2025 Elections Shockwaves: How Global Leadership Is Shifting Overnight

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Introduction

The 2025 elections reshaped global leadership overnight, sparking political power shifts, economic uncertainty, and new geopolitical trends.

The 2025 elections have unleashed a wave of uncertainty and transformation across continents. From Washington to Warsaw, Delhi to Dakar, voters have spoken — and the verdict is shaking the foundations of global leadership. Overnight, the balance of power has shifted, alliances are being tested, and economies are bracing for impact.

This isn’t just another election cycle. It’s a political power shift of historic proportions, one that raises urgent questions about the resilience of democracy, the trajectory of international relations, and the economic impact of elections on everyday lives.

🌍 Global Election Highlights

United States: Democracy in Crisis

The US 2025 elections were the most polarizing in modern history. Record voter turnout reflected both hope and anxiety. Yet the results underscored a democracy in crisis, with deep divisions across race, class, and ideology. The new administration faces a daunting task: restoring trust in institutions while navigating a fractured Congress.

For global observers, the U.S. remains a bellwether. Its leadership choices reverberate through NATO, trade agreements, and climate commitments. The question is whether Washington can still project stability in a world increasingly skeptical of American consistency.

Europe: Populism vs Integration

Across Europe, elections revealed a tug‑of‑war between populist nationalism and pro‑integration forces. In France, populist candidates surged, while Germany’s coalition government struggled to maintain unity. The European Union now faces existential questions: will it strengthen its collective identity or splinter under nationalist pressures?

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The implications for world leaders 2025 are profound. A weakened EU could embolden Russia, destabilize NATO, and undermine global efforts on climate and trade.

Asia: Rising Powers, Shifting Alliances

India’s elections highlighted the tension between rapid economic growth and democratic resilience. With a youthful electorate demanding jobs and transparency, the government faces pressure to deliver reforms while balancing regional security challenges.

Meanwhile, Japan and South Korea recalibrated their foreign policies, signaling new geopolitical trends in the Indo‑Pacific. China, watching closely, continues to expand its influence through trade and technology, intensifying the US‑China rivalry that defines this era.

Africa: Continental Awakening

Africa’s elections in Nigeria, South Africa, and Kenya underscored the continent’s growing importance. Citizens demanded accountability, economic opportunity, and stronger institutions. The African Union now faces the challenge of balancing sovereignty with collective strength, particularly in trade and security.

For global leadership, Africa is no longer a passive player. Its demographic boom and resource wealth make it central to the future of international relations.

🔎 Leadership Changes & Geopolitical Consequences

The political power shift of 2025 is not just about who won or lost. It’s about how leadership transitions ripple across borders:

  • US‑China rivalry intensifies, with both nations vying for technological, military, and ideological dominance.
  • Europe’s fragile unity raises questions about NATO’s future role and the continent’s ability to act collectively.
  • Middle East elections recalibrate oil diplomacy, impacting energy markets and reshaping alliances.
  • Latin America sees a surge in reformist leaders promising economic revival but facing institutional hurdles.

These shifts redefine international relations, forcing nations to reconsider alliances, trade strategies, and security commitments. The overnight reshaping of global leadership is both exhilarating and alarming.

💰 Economic & Social Ripple Effects

Markets in Flux

The economic impact of elections is already visible. Stock markets reacted with volatility, reflecting investor uncertainty. Wall Street, Frankfurt, and Tokyo all saw sharp swings as traders recalibrated expectations.

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Cryptocurrency & Alternative Economies

In regions where trust in government is low, cryptocurrency adoption surged. Citizens sought alternatives to unstable currencies, signaling a broader shift toward decentralized finance.

Trade & Supply Chains

Global trade faces recalibration. Tariffs, sanctions, and new trade blocs are reshaping supply chains. Nations are rethinking dependencies, particularly on energy and technology.

Social Movements

Beyond economics, social movements gained momentum. Climate activists, digital rights advocates, and youth organizations are demanding accountability from newly elected governments. Their influence is reshaping policy agendas, proving that elections are not just about ballots but about voices amplified through protest and digital platforms.

📰 Expert Commentary

As a columnist observing these tectonic shifts, one cannot ignore the irony: while voters seek stability, their choices often unleash unpredictability. The 2025 elections remind us that democracy, though imperfect, remains the most powerful instrument of change.

Yet, the pace of transformation raises urgent questions. Can institutions withstand the pressure of rapid political turnover? Can economies adapt to sudden shifts in policy direction? And can global alliances survive the strain of competing national interests?

The overnight reshaping of global leadership is a reminder that in today’s interconnected world, no election is local anymore. Every ballot cast in one nation reverberates across borders, influencing trade, security, and even cultural narratives.

Conclusion

The 2025 elections shockwaves are far from settling. What we are witnessing is not just a change of faces but a redefinition of power itself. From Washington to Beijing, Brussels to Brasília, the future of governance, economics, and diplomacy hangs in the balance.

The world must now ask: are we prepared for the consequences of this political power shift, or are we simply reacting to them? The answer will define the next decade of international relations and the trajectory of global stability.


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Economy

The Economic Consequences of Elections: A Perspective from Nedbank

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Introduction

Elections are an integral part of any democratic society, providing citizens with the opportunity to choose their leaders and hold them accountable for their actions. However, the focus on elections can often divert attention from other pressing issues, such as fixing the economy.

In a recent statement, the Nedbank chief, Mike Brown, expressed concern that the upcoming elections could take the focus off fixing the economy, which is a cause for concern for many South Africans. In this article, we will delve deeper into the economic consequences of elections and the implications for South Africa.

The Economic Consequences of Elections
Elections can have significant economic consequences, both in the short and long term. In the short term, elections can lead to increased uncertainty, as investors and businesses may hold back on making decisions until the outcome is clear. This uncertainty can lead to a decrease in investment, which can negatively impact economic growth.

In the long term, elections can lead to policy changes that can have significant economic consequences. For example, if a new government comes into power with a different economic policy, this can lead to changes in regulations, taxes, and other economic factors that can impact businesses and investors. This can lead to a decrease in confidence in the economy, which can further impact investment and economic growth.

Nedbank’s Perspective
Nedbank, one of South Africa’s largest banks, has expressed concern that the upcoming elections could take the focus off fixing the economy. Mike Brown, the Nedbank chief, has stated that “the focus on the election could distract from the need to address the structural issues that are holding back the economy.” This is a concern shared by many South Africans, who are worried about the country’s economic future.

ALSO READ :  The Uncertainty Surrounding General Elections 2018

Structural Issues in the South African Economy
South Africa’s economy has been struggling for some time, with high levels of unemployment, low economic growth, and a large budget deficit. These structural issues are complex and require significant attention and effort to address. However, the focus on elections can divert attention from these issues, making it difficult to make progress in fixing the economy.

Conclusion
Elections are an important part of any democratic society, but they can also have significant economic consequences. The focus on elections can divert attention from other pressing issues, such as fixing the economy. As the Nedbank chief has pointed out, this can seriously affect South Africa’s economic future. Attention must be given to these structural issues, regardless of the outcome of the elections. Only then can South Africa hope to achieve sustainable economic growth and development.


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