Analysis

2025: The Year That Reshaped Our World

Published

1 month ago

December 24, 2025

Abdul Rahman

Defining moments of 2025 including climate disasters, technological transformation, political upheaval, and conflict resolution attempts

Table of Contents

A Political Analyst’s Reflection on Twelve Months That Redefined Power, Progress, and Planetary Limits

When historians thumb through the annals of the early 21st century, 2025 will stand out—not for a single cataclysmic event, but for the way disparate forces converged to accelerate transformations already underway. It was the year artificial intelligence moved from boardroom buzzword to economic driver, when climate records tumbled with disturbing regularity, and when geopolitical fault lines cracked open in ways that will shape international relations for decades.

I’ve covered politics and global affairs for two decades, but few years have felt as consequent as this one. From my perch watching these events unfold, 2025 revealed something fundamental: the post-Cold War order isn’t gradually evolving—it’s being actively dismantled and rebuilt, often simultaneously, by forces ranging from Silicon Valley boardrooms to Kathmandu’s streets.

The AI Gold Rush: When Technology Became Infrastructure

If 2023 introduced the world to generative AI’s possibilities, 2025 was the year it became undeniable infrastructure. The numbers tell a staggering story: global AI spending reached approximately $1.5 trillion this year, according to Gartner projections, while private investment in AI companies surged to $202.3 billion—a 75% increase from 2024.

The United States dominated this landscape with almost imperial confidence. U.S. private AI investment hit $109.1 billion in 2024 data, nearly twelve times China’s $9.3 billion. The San Francisco Bay Area alone captured $122 billion in AI funding this year—more than three-quarters of U.S. investment. When President Trump announced the $500 billion “Stargate” project with OpenAI, SoftBank, and Oracle, it wasn’t just industrial policy; it was a declaration that whoever controls AI’s commanding heights will shape the global economy.

But this gold rush came with costs that extend beyond quarterly earnings. Business usage of AI jumped from 55% of organizations in 2023 to 78% in 2024, and that acceleration continued through 2025. Yet as JP Morgan economists noted, AI-related capital expenditures contributed 1.1% to GDP growth in the first half of 2025—actually outpacing consumer spending as an engine of expansion.

The human toll proved harder to quantify. Companies increasingly cited AI adoption when announcing mass layoffs. The technology stands accused of fueling misinformation campaigns, faces mushrooming copyright lawsuits, and has sparked fears of a speculative bubble reminiscent of the 1990s dot-com crash. China’s DeepSeek R1 demonstrated that the computing gap between Beijing and Silicon Valley is narrowing faster than many anticipated, adding geopolitical urgency to what was already an economic arms race.

By year’s end, 88% of organizations reported regular AI use—but most had yet to embed these tools deeply enough to realize material benefits. The promise of transformation remains largely that: a promise, expensive and unproven at scale.

Trump’s Return: Disruption as Governing Philosophy

Donald Trump’s return to the White House on January 20 marked more than a political restoration. At 78, he became the oldest person to win the presidency and only the second to serve non-consecutive terms. But age and precedent mattered less than the velocity of change he unleashed.

Within hours of taking office, Trump signed executive orders withdrawing from the World Health Organization and the Paris Climate Agreement, initiated what he termed “mass deportations” of undocumented immigrants, and set in motion the dismantling of diversity and inclusion programs across the federal government. The National Guard deployed to Democratic-voting cities. Media outlets faced presidential intimidation. The administrative state found itself under systematic assault.

Yet Trump’s most consequential policy lever proved to be the one Alexander Hamilton championed in the Federalist Papers: tariffs. What began as campaign rhetoric evolved into the most aggressive trade policy since the Great Depression. The administration imposed a minimum 10% tariff on all trading partners, with China facing rates reaching 60%, and specific sectors like steel, aluminum, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals hit with targeted increases.

The economic impact unfolded like a slow-motion collision. The Tax Foundation calculated that Trump’s imposed tariffs would raise $2.1 trillion over a decade while reducing GDP by 0.5%—and that’s before accounting for foreign retaliation. Penn Wharton’s Budget Model projected even grimmer consequences: an 8% GDP reduction and 7% wage decline, costing a middle-income household approximately $58,000 over their lifetime.

Real-world effects arrived swiftly. The U.S. economy actually contracted at an annual rate of 0.6% in early 2025 as businesses braced for the tariff onslaught. Brazilian coffee exports to the United States fell by 32.2% after facing 50% tariffs. Switzerland’s economy shrank in the third quarter at the fastest rate since the pandemic. By November, only 36% of Americans approved of Trump’s economic stewardship—his worst mark in six years of polling.

The tariffs raised $30 billion monthly by August, but revenue projections kept declining as economists factored in reduced trade volumes, foreign retaliation, and slower economic growth. What Trump positioned as economic nationalism increasingly resembled fiscal folly: the largest tax increase as a percentage of GDP since 1993, implemented to fund tax cuts that benefited primarily the wealthy while raising consumer prices for everyone else.

Climate’s Unrelenting March

While politicians debated policy, the planet delivered its verdict. Data from multiple scientific agencies confirmed 2025 as either the second or third warmest year on record, with global average temperatures running 1.42°C above pre-industrial levels through August. More ominously, the three-year average for 2023-2025 exceeded 1.5°C for the first time—the threshold scientists had long warned against breaching.

The past eleven years, from 2015 to 2025, now constitute the eleven warmest in the 176-year observational record. Arctic sea ice extent after winter freeze reached the lowest level ever recorded. Ocean heat content hit new records. And approximately 7% of Earth’s surface experienced record warming in just the first six months of the year.

These weren’t abstract statistics. The Los Angeles wildfires that erupted January 7 burned for a month, destroying more than 16,000 structures and killing 30 people. With costs estimated between $76 billion and $131 billion, it became one of the costliest disasters in U.S. history. Typhoon Kalmaegi killed more than 200 people across the Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand in November. Catastrophic flooding in Southeast Asia claimed over 1,700 lives when tropical cyclones struck in late November, demonstrating how climate change intensifies the water cycle—for every degree Celsius of warming, air holds 7% more moisture.

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The World Meteorological Organization projected that without dramatic emission reductions, multi-decadal global temperatures will at least temporarily exceed 1.5°C within the next decade. UN Environment Programme modeling found the world now heading toward 1.8°C warming before potentially falling back below 1.5°C before century’s end—but only if nations implement aggressive mitigation policies they’ve mostly failed to enact.

“Each year above 1.5 degrees will hammer economies, deepen inequalities and inflict irreversible damage,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned. Yet greenhouse gas concentrations continued rising throughout 2025, and the gap between climate commitments and climate action grew wider, not narrower.

Gaza: A Fragile Peace After Years of Devastation

Few conflicts commanded global attention like the Gaza war, which entered its third year before President Trump brokered a ceasefire that went into effect October 10. The numbers behind the agreement were staggering and tragic: the war had killed at least 67,869 Palestinians according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, following the Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023, that killed 1,144 Israelis.

Trump’s 20-point peace plan, announced September 29, required Hamas to release all living hostages and hand over deceased hostages’ remains within 72 hours of Israeli forces withdrawing to designated “yellow lines” within Gaza. Israel agreed to release 2,000 Palestinian prisoners, including 250 serving life sentences. On October 13, all 20 remaining living Israeli hostages walked free.

But if the ceasefire formally ended the war, it did little to resolve the underlying conflicts. According to Gaza’s Government Media Office, Israel violated the ceasefire at least 875 times between October 10 and December 22—through shootings, raids, bombings, and property demolitions. Since the ceasefire began, Israeli attacks killed at least 406 Palestinians and injured 1,118 more.

The deadliest incident occurred October 29, when Israel killed 104 people, including 46 children, after accusing Hamas of ceasefire violations. Trump defended the strikes from Air Force One, saying Israel “should hit back” and warning that Hamas would be “terminated” if they didn’t “behave.”

The peace plan’s subsequent phases remain mired in fundamental disagreements. Israel refuses to allow a Palestinian state. Hamas refuses to disarm. The UN Security Council approved a U.S. resolution on November 17 establishing an International Stabilization Force for Gaza and calling for the Palestinian Authority to assume governance by 2027, but implementation faces massive obstacles. The World Bank estimates Gaza reconstruction will cost more than $70 billion—and no one has explained where that funding will come from.

The Gen Z Uprising: Youth Demand Their Voice

September 8 marked the beginning of the most dramatic Gen Z protest of 2025: thousands of students in Nepal took to the streets to oppose the government’s sweeping social media ban. The uprising created vivid images—protesters hanging a Jolly Roger flag from the manga One Piece on gates as the Singha Durbar government complex burned behind them. By the time the demonstrations subsided, at least 22 people were dead, hundreds were injured, and Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli had resigned.

Nepal’s revolt formed part of a broader pattern. From Morocco to Indonesia, young people under 30 led mass movements against poor living standards, social media censorship, and elite corruption. Australia implemented a social media ban for those under 16 on December 10, applying to YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, X, and TikTok. India’s government grappled with youth protests over economic opportunities. In Morocco, the government promised social reforms but then prosecuted more than 2,000 demonstrators.

These movements enjoyed mixed success, but they revealed something significant: a generation that came of age during global financial crisis, pandemic lockdowns, and climate anxiety refuses to accept the world older generations are handing them. They’re digitally native, globally connected, and increasingly willing to risk state violence to demand change.

Ukraine: The War That Wouldn’t End

The war in Ukraine ground through its fourth year with punishing arithmetic. Russia lost roughly 1,000 soldiers daily, according to estimates, yet increased its control of Ukrainian territory by less than 1% throughout 2025. Those meager gains came at costs that strain comprehension—both in lives and treasure.

Russia intensified its missile and drone campaigns, repeatedly striking Ukrainian cities and causing heavy civilian casualties. In March, Russian forces reclaimed Kursk province, which Ukraine had seized in a surprise invasion the previous August. Ukraine stunned observers in June with Operation Spiderweb—a covert drone strike deep into Russia that hit five air bases. Yet the attack failed to change the war’s basic dynamics.

President Trump’s approach oscillated between engagement and confrontation. In February, he berated President Zelensky in the Oval Office, accusing him of risking World War III. An August summit with Putin in Alaska ended early, with Washington accusing Moscow of not being serious about peace. Trump later imposed his first major sanctions package on Russia. By November, international negotiations based on a draft U.S. plan commenced, though Kyiv and European allies initially considered the proposal largely favorable to Moscow.

Experts continue debating how long both sides can sustain the conflict, but most agree Ukraine’s position looks increasingly precarious. The EU approved a €90 billion loan for Ukraine over two years, structured so Kyiv only repays once Russia pays reparations—a condition that acknowledges peace remains distant and uncertain.

The Bondi Beach Massacre: Terror Returns to Australia

December 14 brought Australia’s deadliest terrorist incident in history when a father and son opened fire on a Hanukkah celebration at Sydney’s Bondi Beach, killing 15 people and injuring more than 40. Police fatally shot one gunman; both were said to be motivated by Islamic State ideology.

The attack shook a nation that had implemented some of the world’s strictest gun laws following the 1996 Port Arthur massacre. It raised uncomfortable questions about radicalization, security screening, and whether bureaucratic delays in gun licensing contributed to the tragedy. An Australian state leader later revealed the main suspect faced lengthy delays in obtaining a gun license due to administrative backlogs, not suspicion.

The massacre also highlighted the persistent threat of ISIS-inspired violence even as the Islamic State’s territorial caliphate had collapsed years earlier. The ideology proved more durable than the territory, capable of inspiring attacks from New Orleans (where a man inspired by ISIS drove into crowds on New Year’s Day, killing multiple people) to Sydney’s beaches.

The First American Pope and the Church’s New Direction

On May 8, the College of Cardinals elected Cardinal Robert Prevost as Pope Leo XIV, making him the first American pontiff in Catholic Church history. The Chicago-born clergyman, who spent nearly 20 years as a missionary in Peru and obtained citizenship there, took the papal name Leo XIV at age 69.

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Pope Leo XIV inherited a church grappling with declining attendance in the Global North, clergy abuse scandals, and questions about its relevance to younger generations. His predecessor, Pope Francis, had died April 21 at age 88 after hospitalization for respiratory issues. Francis had been canonized for his focus on the poor, migrants, and the environment—causes Leo XIV signaled he would continue.

Yet the new pope also offered reassurances to conservative circles by ruling out, at least in the short term, the ordination of women as deacons and recognition of same-sex marriage. This balancing act—progressive on economic justice and climate, traditional on doctrine and gender roles—will define his papacy and likely determine whether the Church can retain influence as secularization accelerates across developed nations.

Carlo Acutis, who died at age 15 from leukemia, was canonized on September 7, becoming widely venerated as “the first millennial saint” and “the patron saint of the Internet” for his interest in using digital communication to teach others. His canonization reflected the Church’s attempt to remain relevant in an increasingly digital age.

Democracy Under Strain: Elections and Erosions

The year delivered a mixed verdict on democratic governance. In New York City, Zohran Mamdani, a self-described democratic socialist, won the mayoral race on November 4, defeating better-known candidates with promises to make the city more affordable. India won its first Women’s Cricket World Cup on November 2, a cultural milestone in a nation where women’s sports traditionally received little support or recognition.

But democratic backsliding accelerated elsewhere. Charlie Kirk, the conservative activist and Trump ally who founded Turning Point USA, was assassinated on September 10 while speaking at Utah Valley University. His killing sent shockwaves through American political movements on both left and right, raising fears of escalating political violence.

Elections across Europe and Asia revealed voters’ discontent with incumbent governments yet offered few clear alternatives. Czech elections on October 3-4 saw former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš win a plurality but fail to reach a majority. Bulgaria’s government resigned in December following major protests, extending a political crisis that began in 2021. Chile elected José Antonio Kast as president, marking a rightward shift in a nation that had recently elected progressive leaders.

The pattern suggested voters everywhere wanted change but disagreed fundamentally about what kind. Populism continued gaining ground, traditional parties fragmented, and the center struggled to hold.

Notable Passages and Cultural Moments

Not everything in 2025 spoke to crisis. Rebecca Yarros published Onyx Storm, the third installment in her Empyrean “romantasy” series on January 21, breaking sales records with more than 2.7 million copies sold in its first week—the fastest-selling adult fiction title in 20 years. The cultural hunger for escapist fantasy suggested audiences wanted relief from a relentlessly difficult present.

Inter Miami CF, led by Lionel Messi, won its first Major League Soccer Cup on December 6, marking a triumph for both the legendary player and American soccer’s growing ambitions. The fictional K-pop group from the Netflix series K-Pop Demon Hunters saw their song “Golden” hit No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100, becoming the first K-pop girl group, real or fictional, to reach the top slot. The movie became Netflix’s most-watched film of all time.

On October 19, thieves dressed as workers used a furniture ladder to break into Paris’s Louvre Museum, fleeing on scooters with Crown Jewels valued at €88 million (though they dropped a diamond-encrusted crown during their escape). Three suspects were charged and jailed, but the stolen treasures remained missing—a crime that sparked worldwide headlines and debates about security at the world’s most-visited museum.

And on December 16, the world celebrated the 250th anniversary of Jane Austen’s birth, a reminder that some cultural touchstones endure regardless of technological disruption or geopolitical turbulence.

What 2025 Revealed About Our Trajectory

Standing at year’s end, several patterns emerge from the chaos. First, the American-led international order that structured global affairs since 1945 is dissolving faster than any replacement is being built. Trump’s tariffs, his simultaneous courtship and confrontation with traditional allies, and his transactional approach to alliances all signal that the rules-based system is giving way to something more Hobbesian—though what precisely remains unclear.

Second, climate change has moved from future threat to present reality in ways that penetrate public consciousness even as political action remains inadequate. When Los Angeles burns and Southeast Asian floods kill thousands, the connection between fossil fuel emissions and human suffering becomes harder to dismiss as alarmist speculation.

Third, artificial intelligence is reshaping economic structures at a pace that makes measured policy responses nearly impossible. By the time regulators understand last year’s technology, next year’s innovation has already been deployed. The $1.5 trillion in AI spending this year will seem quaint when we look back from 2030.

Fourth, young people globally are losing patience with systems that offer them diminishing opportunities while demanding their compliance. From Kathmandu to New York, Gen Z is increasingly willing to take risks their parents avoided. Whether this energy produces meaningful reform or violent backlash will shape the decade ahead.

Fifth, the search for peace in long-running conflicts—Ukraine, Gaza, Yemen—keeps producing agreements that paper over rather than resolve fundamental disagreements. Ceasefires hold, barely, while the underlying causes of war remain unaddressed. This is not stability; it’s a fragile pause before the next round.

Looking Forward: 2026 and Beyond

As we enter 2026, several questions demand answers. Can AI deliver on its enormous promises without triggering economic dislocation or enabling authoritarian control? Will democracies find ways to address voter anger, or will that anger keep empowering demagogues who offer simple answers to complex problems? Can the international community mobilize the resources needed to prevent climate change from triggering mass displacement and resource wars?

And perhaps most fundamentally: Is the post-1945 liberal international order worth saving, or should we accept that we’re entering a multipolar world where might increasingly makes right?

The optimist in me notes that humanity has navigated periods of comparable disruption before. The pessimist observes that such transitions typically involved considerable suffering before new equilibria emerged.

What’s undeniable is that 2025 represented not an aberration but an acceleration. The forces reshaping our world—technological, environmental, political, demographic—aren’t slowing down. If anything, they’re compounding, creating feedback loops that make prediction increasingly hazardous.

Those of us who chronicle these changes bear a responsibility to document not just events but patterns, not just what happened but what it might mean. And what 2025 meant, I believe, is this: the old world is dying, the new world struggles to be born, and in this interregnum, many monsters appear.

Whether 2026 brings us closer to resolution or deeper into crisis, one lesson from 2025 endures: change is the only constant, and our capacity to shape that change depends on our willingness to see clearly, think honestly, and act courageously in the face of enormous complexity.

The year ahead will test whether we’re equal to that challenge.

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Analysis

The Kashmir Conflict and the Reality of Crimes Against Humanity

Published

7 days ago

January 29, 2026

Dr Ghulam Nabi Fai

Crimes against humanity represent one of the most serious affronts to human dignity and collective conscience. They embody patterns of widespread or systematic violence directed against civilian populations — including murder, enforced disappearances, torture, persecution, sexual violence, deportation, and other inhumane acts that shock the moral order of humanity. The United Nations Conference of Plenipotentiaries on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime against Humanity presents a historic opportunity to strengthen global resolve, reinforce legal frameworks, and advance cooperation among states to ensure accountability, justice, and meaningful prevention.

While the international legal architecture has evolved significantly since the aftermath of the Second World War, important normative and institutional gaps remain. The Genocide Convention of 1948 and the Geneva Conventions established foundational legal protections, and the creation of the International Criminal Court reinforced accountability mechanisms. Yet, unlike genocide and war crimes, there is still no stand-alone comprehensive convention dedicated exclusively to crimes against humanity. This structural omission has limited the capacity of states to adopt consistent domestic legislation, harmonize cooperation frameworks, and pursue perpetrators who move across borders. The Conference of Plenipotentiaries seeks to fill this critical void.

The Imperative of Prevention

Prevention must stand at the core of the international community’s approach. Too often, the world reacts to atrocities only after irreparable harm has been inflicted and communities have been devastated. A meaningful prevention framework requires early warning mechanisms, stronger monitoring capacities, transparent reporting, and a willingness by states and institutions to act before crises escalate. Education in human rights, inclusive governance, rule of law strengthening, and responsible security practices are equally essential elements of prevention.

Civil society organizations, academic institutions, moral leaders, and human rights defenders play a vital role in documenting abuses, amplifying the voices of victims, and urging action when warning signs emerge. Their protection and meaningful participation must therefore be an integral component of any preventive strategy. Without civic space, truth is silenced — and without truth, accountability becomes impossible.

Accountability and the Rule of Law

Accountability is not an act of punishment alone; it is an affirmation of universal human values. When perpetrators enjoy impunity, cycles of violence deepen, victims are re-traumatized, and the integrity of international law erodes. Strengthening judicial cooperation — including extradition, mutual legal assistance, and evidence-sharing — is essential to closing enforcement gaps. Equally important is the responsibility of states to incorporate crimes against humanity into domestic criminal law, ensuring that such crimes can be prosecuted fairly and independently at the national level.

Justice must also be survivor centered. Victims and affected communities deserve recognition, reparations, psychological support, and the assurance that their suffering has not been ignored. Truth-seeking mechanisms and memorialization efforts help restore dignity and foster long-term reconciliation.

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The Role of Multilateralism

The Conference reinforces the indispensable role of multilateralism in confronting global challenges. Atrocities rarely occur in isolation; they are rooted in political exclusion, discrimination, securitization of societies, and structural inequalities. No state, however powerful, can confront these dynamics alone. Shared norms, coordinated diplomatic engagement, and principled international cooperation are vital to preventing abuses and responding when they occur.

Multilateral commitments must also be matched with political will. Declarations are meaningful only when accompanied by implementation, transparency, and accountability to both domestic and international publics.

Technology, Media, and Modern Challenges

Contemporary conflicts and crises unfold in an increasingly digital and interconnected world. Technology can illuminate truth — enabling documentation, verification, and preservation of evidence — but it can also be weaponized to spread hate, dehumanization, and incitement. Strengthening responsible digital governance, countering disinformation, and supporting credible documentation initiatives are essential tools for both prevention and accountability. Journalists, researchers, and human rights monitors must be protected from reprisals for their work.

Climate-related stress, demographic shifts, and political polarization further complicate the landscape in which vulnerabilities emerge. The Conference should therefore promote a holistic understanding of risk factors that may precipitate widespread or systematic violence.

A Universal Commitment — With Local Realities

While the principles guiding this Convention are universal, their application must be sensitive to local histories, languages, cultures, and institutional realities. Effective implementation depends on national ownership, capacity-building, judicial training, and inclusive policymaking that engages women, youth, minorities, and marginalized communities. The pursuit of justice must never be perceived as externally imposed, but rather as an expression of shared human values anchored within domestic legal systems.

The Kashmir Conflict and the Reality of Crimes Against Humanity

Crimes against humanity do not emerge overnight. They develop through sustained patterns of abuse, erosion of legal safeguards, and the normalization of repression. Jammu and Kashmir presents a contemporary case study of these dynamics.

Under international law, crimes against humanity encompass widespread or systematic attacks directed against a civilian population, including imprisonment, torture, persecution, enforced disappearance, and other inhumane acts. Evidence emerging from Kashmir—documented by UN experts, international NGOs, journalists, and scholars—demonstrates patterns that meet these legal criteria.

The invocation of “national security” has become the central mechanism through which extraordinary powers are exercised without effective judicial oversight. Draconian laws are routinely used to silence dissent, detain human rights defenders, restrict movement, and suppress independent media. This securitized governance has produced what many Kashmiris describe as the “peace of the graveyard”—an imposed silence rather than genuine peace.

Early-warning frameworks for mass atrocities are particularly instructive. Gregory Stanton identifies Kashmir as exhibiting multiple risk indicators, including classification and discrimination, denial of civil rights, militarization, and impunity. These indicators, if left unaddressed, historically precede mass atrocity crimes.

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The systematic silencing of journalists, as warned by the Committee to Protect Journalists, and the targeting of academics and diaspora voices—such as the denial of entry to Dr. Nitasha Kaul and the cancellation of travel documents of elderly activists like Amrit Wilson—demonstrate repression extending beyond borders.

The joint statement by ten UN Special Rapporteurs (2025) regarding one of internationally known human rights defender – Khurram Parvez – underscores that these are not isolated incidents but part of a broader pattern involving arbitrary detention, torture, discriminatory treatment, and custodial deaths. Together, these acts form a systematic attack on a civilian population, triggering the international community’s responsibility to act.

This Conference offers a critical opportunity to reaffirm that sovereignty cannot be a shield for crimes against humanity. Kashmir illustrates the urgent need for:

Preventive diplomacy grounded in early warning mechanisms.
Independent investigations and universal jurisdiction where applicable.
Stronger protections for journalists, scholars, and human rights defenders, including Irfan Mehraj, Abdul Aaala Fazili, Hilal Mir, Asif Sultan and others.
Victim-centered justice and accountability frameworks for Mohammad Yasin Malik, Shabir Ahmed Shah, Masarat Aalam, Aasia Andrabi, Fehmeeda Sofi, Nahida Nasreen and others.

Recognizing Kashmir within the crimes-against-humanity discourse is not political—it is legal, moral, and preventive. Failure to act risks entrenching impunity and undermining the very purpose of international criminal law.

Conclusion

The United Nations Conference of Plenipotentiaries carries profound moral, legal, and historical significance. It represents not only a technical exercise in treaty development but a reaffirmation of humanity’s collective promise — that no people, anywhere, should face systematic cruelty without recourse to justice and protection. By advancing a comprehensive Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime against Humanity, the international community strengthens its resolve to stand with victims, confront impunity, and uphold the sanctity of human dignity.

The success of this effort will ultimately depend on our willingness to transform commitments into action, principles into practice, and aspiration into enduring protection for present and future generations.

Dr. Fai submitted this paper to the Organizers of the Preparatory Committee for the United Nations Conference of Plenipotentiaries on Prevention and Punishment of Crimes against Humanity on behalf of PCSWHR which is headed by Dr. Ijaz Noori, an internationally known interfaith expert. The conference took place at the UN headquarters between January 19 – 30, 2026.

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Analysis

What Is Nipah Virus? Symptoms, Risks, and Transmission Explained as India Faces New Outbreak Alert

Published

1 week ago

January 27, 2026

Abdul Rahman

KOLKATA, West Bengal—In the intensive care unit of a Kolkata hospital, shielded behind layers of protective glass, a team of healthcare workers moves with a calibrated urgency. Their patient, a man in his forties, is battling an adversary they cannot see and for which they have no specific cure. He is one of at least five confirmed cases in a new Nipah virus outbreak in West Bengal, a stark reminder that the shadow of zoonotic pandemics is long, persistent, and profoundly personal. Among the cases are two frontline workers, a testament to the virus’s stealthy human-to-human transmission. Nearly 100 contacts now wait in monitored quarantine, their lives paused as public health officials race to contain a pathogen with a terrifying fatality rate of 40 to 75 percent.

This scene in India is not from a dystopian novel; it is the latest chapter in a two-decade struggle against a virus that emerges from forests, carried by fruit bats, to sporadically ignite human suffering. As of January 27, 2026, containment efforts are underway, but the alert status remains high. There is no Nipah virus vaccine, no licensed antiviral. Survival hinges on supportive care, epidemiological grit, and the hard-learned lessons from past outbreaks in Kerala and Bangladesh.

For a global audience weary of pandemic headlines, the name “Nipah” may elicit a flicker of recognition. But what is Nipah virus, and why does its appearance cause such profound concern among virologists and public health agencies worldwide? Beyond the immediate crisis in West Bengal, this outbreak illuminates the fragile interplay between a changing environment, animal reservoirs, and human health—a dynamic fueling the age of emerging infectious diseases.

Table of Contents

Understanding the Nipah Virus: A Zoonotic Origin Story

Nipah virus (NiV) is not a newcomer. It is a paramyxovirus, in the same family as measles and mumps, but with a deadlier disposition. It was first identified in 1999 during an outbreak among pig farmers in Sungai Nipah, Malaysia. The transmission chain was traced back to fruit bats of the Pteropus genus—the virus’s natural reservoir—who dropped partially eaten fruit into pig pens. The pigs became amplifying hosts, and from them, the virus jumped to humans.

The South Asian strain, however, revealed a more direct and dangerous pathway. In annual outbreaks in Bangladesh and parts of India, humans contract the virus primarily through consuming raw date palm sap contaminated by bat urine or saliva. From there, it gains the ability for efficient human-to-human transmission through close contact with respiratory droplets or bodily fluids, often in家庭or hospital settings. This capacity for person-to-person spread places it in a category of concern distinct from many other zoonoses.

“Nipah sits at a dangerous intersection,” explains a virologist with the World Health Organization’s (WHO) Emerging Diseases unit. “It has a high mutation rate, a high fatality rate, and proven ability to spread between people. While its outbreaks have so far been sporadic and localized, each event is an opportunity for the virus to better adapt to human hosts.” The WHO lists Nipah as a priority pathogen for research and development, alongside Ebola and SARS-CoV-2.

Key Symptoms and Progression: From Fever to Encephalitis

The symptoms of Nipah virus infection can be deceptively nonspecific at first, often leading to critical delays in diagnosis and isolation. The incubation period ranges from 4 to 14 days. The illness typically progresses in two phases:

Initial Phase: Patients present with flu-like symptoms including:
- High fever
- Severe headache
- Muscle pain (myalgia)
- Vomiting and sore throat
Neurological Phase: Within 24-48 hours, the infection can progress to acute encephalitis (brain inflammation). Signs of this dangerous progression include:
- Dizziness, drowsiness, and altered consciousness.
- Acute confusion or disorientation.
- Seizures.
- Atypical pneumonia and severe respiratory distress.
- In severe cases, coma within 48 hours.

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According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the case fatality rate is estimated at 40% to 75%, a staggering figure that varies by outbreak and local healthcare capacity. Survivors of severe encephalitis are often left with long-term neurological conditions, such as seizure disorders and personality changes.

Transmission Routes and Risk Factors

Understanding Nipah virus transmission is key to breaking its chain. The routes are specific but expose critical vulnerabilities in our food systems and healthcare protocols.

Zoonotic (Animal-to-Human): The primary route. The consumption of raw date palm sap or fruit contaminated by infected bats is the major risk factor in Bangladesh and India. Direct contact with infected bats or their excrement is also a risk. Interestingly, while pigs were the intermediate host in Malaysia, they have not played a role in South Asian outbreaks.
Human-to-Human: This is the driver of hospital-based and家庭clusters. The virus spreads through:
- Direct contact with respiratory droplets (coughing, sneezing) from an infected person.
- Contact with bodily fluids (saliva, urine, blood) of an infected person.
- Contact with contaminated surfaces in clinical or care settings.

This mode of transmission makes healthcare workers exceptionally vulnerable, as seen in the current West Bengal cases and the devastating 2018 Kerala outbreak, where a nurse lost her life after treating an index patient. The lack of early, specific symptoms means Nipah can enter a hospital disguised as a common fever.

The Current Outbreak in West Bengal: Containment Under Pressure

The Nipah virus India 2026 outbreak is centered in West Bengal, with confirmed cases receiving treatment in Kolkata-area hospitals. As reported by NDTV, state health authorities have confirmed at least five cases, including healthcare workers, with one patient in critical condition. The swift response includes:

The quarantine and daily monitoring of nearly 100 high-risk contacts.
Isolation wards established in designated hospitals.
Enhanced surveillance in the affected districts.
Public advisories against consuming raw date palm sap.

This outbreak echoes, but is geographically distinct from, the several deadly encounters Kerala has had with the virus, most notably in 2018 and 2023. Each outbreak tests India’s increasingly robust—yet uneven—infectious disease response infrastructure. The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) and the National Institute of Virology (NIV) have deployed teams and are supporting rapid testing, which is crucial for containment.

Airports in the region, recalling measures from previous health crises, have reportedly instituted thermal screening for passengers from affected areas, a move aimed more at public reassurance than efficacy, given Nipah’s incubation period.

Why the Fatality Rate Is So High: A Perfect Storm of Factors

The alarming Nipah virus fatality rate is a product of biological, clinical, and systemic factors:

Neurotropism: The virus has a strong affinity for neural tissue, leading to rapid and often irreversible brain inflammation.
Lack of Specific Treatment: There is no vaccine for Nipah virus and no licensed antiviral therapy. Treatment is purely supportive: managing fever, ensuring hydration, treating seizures, and, in severe cases, mechanical ventilation. Monoclonal antibodies are under development and have been used compassionately in past outbreaks, but they are not widely available.
Diagnostic Delays: Early symptoms mimic common illnesses. Without rapid, point-of-care diagnostics, critical isolation and care protocols are delayed, increasing the opportunity for spread and disease progression.
Healthcare-Associated Transmission: Outbreaks can overwhelm infection prevention controls in hospitals, turning healthcare facilities into amplification points, which increases the overall case count and mortality.

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Global Implications and Preparedness

While the current Nipah virus outbreak is a local crisis, its implications are global. In an interconnected world, no outbreak is truly isolated. The World Health Organization stresses that Nipah epidemics can cause severe disease and death in humans, posing a significant public health concern.

Furthermore, Nipah is a paradigm for a larger threat. Habitat loss and climate change are bringing wildlife and humans into more frequent contact. The Pteropus bat’s range is vast, spanning from the Gulf through the Indian subcontinent to Southeast Asia and Australia. Urbanization and agricultural expansion increase the odds of spillover events.

“The story of Nipah is the story of our time,” notes a global health security analyst in a piece for SCMP. “It’s a virus that exists in nature, held in check by ecological balance. When we disrupt that balance through deforestation, intensive farming, or climate stress, we roll the dice on spillover. West Bengal today could be somewhere else tomorrow.”

International preparedness is patchy. High-income countries have sophisticated biosecurity labs but may lack experience with the virus. Countries in the endemic region have hard-earned field experience but often lack resources. Bridging this gap through data sharing, capacity building, and joint research is essential.

Prevention and Future Outlook

Until a Nipah virus vaccine becomes a reality, prevention hinges on public awareness, robust surveillance, and classical public health measures:

Community Education: In endemic areas, public campaigns must clearly communicate the dangers of consuming raw date palm sap and advise covering sap collection pots to prevent bat access.
Enhanced Surveillance: Implementing a “One Health” approach that integrates human, animal, and environmental health monitoring to detect spillover events early.
Hospital Readiness: Ensuring healthcare facilities in at-risk regions have protocols for rapid identification, isolation, and infection control, and that workers have adequate personal protective equipment (PPE).
Accelerating Research: The pandemic has shown the world the value of platform technologies for vaccines. Several Nipah virus vaccine candidates are in various trial stages, supported by initiatives like the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI). Similarly, research into antiviral treatments like remdesivir and monoclonal antibodies must be prioritized.

The future outlook is one of cautious vigilance. Eradicating Nipah is impossible—its reservoir is wild, winged, and widespread. The goal is effective management: early detection, swift containment, and reducing the case fatality rate through better care and, eventually, medical countermeasures.

Conclusion: A Test of Vigilance and Cooperation

The patients in Kolkata’s isolation wards are more than statistics; they are a poignant call to action. The Nipah virus India outbreak in West Bengal is a flare in the night, illuminating the persistent vulnerabilities in our global health defenses. It reminds us that while COVID-19 may have redefined our scale of concern, it did not invent the underlying risks.

Nipah’s high fatality rate and capacity for human-to-human transmission demand respect, but not panic. The response in West Bengal demonstrates that with swift action, contact tracing, and community engagement, chains of transmission can be broken, even without a magic bullet cure.

Ultimately, the narrative of Nipah is not solely one of threat, but of trajectory. It shows where we have been—reactive, often scrambling. And it points to where we must go: toward a proactive, collaborative, and equitable system of pandemic preparedness. This means investing in research for neglected pathogens, strengthening health systems at the grassroots, and respecting the delicate ecological balances that, when disturbed, send silent passengers from the forest into our midst. The goal is not just to contain the outbreak of today, but to build a world resilient to the viruses of tomorrow.

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Analysis

Systematic Inhumane Persecution in Jammu & Kashmir

Published

2 weeks ago

January 21, 2026

Dr. Ghulam Nabi Fai

This written communication draws the attention of the United Nations and its human rights mechanisms to persistent and grave violations in Jammu and Kashmir, which cumulatively raise serious concerns under international human rights law and international criminal law, including the threshold of crimes against humanity.

For decades, the civilian population of Jammu and Kashmir has lived under one of the world’s most militarized environments. Since August 2019 in particular, restrictions on civil liberties have intensified, marked by arbitrary arrests, prolonged detentions without trial, torture and ill-treatment, extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances, and collective punishment under the guise of national security.

On 24 November 2025, ten UN Special Rapporteurs issued a joint statement condemning “reports of arbitrary arrests and detentions, suspicious deaths in custody, torture and other ill-treatment, lynchings, and discriminatory treatment of Kashmiri and Muslim communities.”

These concerns echo findings previously documented by Michelle Bachelet,the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) in its 2019 report, which warned of an entrenched culture of impunity and lack of accountability for serious violations.

Independent experts on mass atrocities have sounded early warnings. Gregory Stanton, Founder of Genocide Watch, has stated that Kashmir exhibits multiple risk factors associated with genocide, including extreme militarization, denial of identity, suppression of dissent, and systemic impunity.

Freedom of expression and access to information have been severely curtailed. The Committee to Protect Journalists has repeatedly warned that journalism in Kashmir has been effectively criminalized, leaving the population voiceless.

Award-winning journalists and scholars—such as Masarat Zahra and Dr. Nitasha Kaul (British Academic) —have faced harassment, travel bans, and reprisals, including the denial of entry to India, amounting to transnational repression.

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The recent attachment of properties belonging to members of the Kashmiri diaspora who advocate a peaceful resolution of the Kashmir dispute is deeply alarming. These measures appear aimed at intimidating and silencing dissenting voices and preventing the international community from understanding the reality on the ground.

Equally disturbing is the forthcoming trial of Mohammad Yasin Malik before the Supreme Court of India, where the government is seeking the death penalty, a move that has sent shockwaves across Kashmir and among human rights advocates worldwide. The recent convictions of Asiya Andrabi, Nahida Nasreen and Fahmeeda Sofi serve no legitimate purpose other than to suppress political expression and peaceful advocacy.

The continued incarceration of Shabir Ahmed Shah and Masarat Alam, without credible justification, further underscores a pattern of repression aimed at dismantling legitimate political leadership in Kashmir. The prolonged confinement of Khurram Parvez, an internationally known human rights advocate violates all norms of international standards.

These actions collectively reflect a troubling pattern of repression and raise serious concerns under international human rights law. Urgent intervention by the United Nations is essential to protect fundamental freedoms, uphold the rule of law, and prevent further deterioration of the human rights situation in Jammu and Kashmir.

My concerns are consistent with observations made by other United Nations independent experts, international NGO’s, scholars and academics.

Mary Lawlor, UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights Defenders said on the targeting of Kashmiri civil society: “The continued use of counter-terrorism legislation to silence human rights defenders in Jammu and Kashmir is deeply alarming. Peaceful human rights work must never be criminalized under the guise of national security.”

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Dr. Fernand de Varennes, UN Special Rapporteur on Minority Issues (2020): “Restrictions imposed in Jammu and Kashmir appear to be inconsistent with international human rights norms, particularly those protecting minorities.”

International Commission of Jurists (ICJ): “The prolonged denial of civil liberties in Jammu and Kashmir raises serious concerns under international law, including the prohibition of collective punishment and arbitrary detention.”

Amnesty International: “India’s claims of ‘normalcy’ in Kashmir are contradicted by widespread repression, including arbitrary detentions, communication blackouts, and collective punishment of civilians.”

Human Rights Watch: “Impunity for security forces remains the norm, fostering further abuses and denying justice to victims.”

Timely and principled intervention by the United Nations is essential to restore confidence in the rule of law, protect fundamental freedoms, and bring a measure of sanity and accountability to the situation in Jammu and Kashmir.

This submission urges the United Nations to:

Initiate independent international investigations into alleged crimes against humanity in Jammu and Kashmir.
Press for the repeal or reform of laws enabling arbitrary detention and collective punishment.
Persuade India to release Mohammad Yasin Malik, Shabbir Ahmed Shah, Masar Aalam, Asiya Andrabi, Nahida Nasreen, Fahmeeda Soofi, Khurram Parvez and others immediately.
Ensure access to UN Special Procedures, international observers, and independent media.
Call for accountability and remedies for victims, consistent with international law.

Silence and inaction risk normalizing repression. The situation in Jammu and Kashmir demands sustained international scrutiny and principled engagement.

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