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The Mirage of a New Middle East: War With Iran Won’t Reshape the Region the Way America Wants

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On the morning of February 28, 2026, at exactly 2:30 a.m. Eastern time, Donald Trump released an eight-minute video on Truth Social explaining why the United States had just begun bombing Iran. The message was characteristically blunt: regime change, existential threat, forty-seven years in the making. By sunrise, the Middle East was on fire—literally and strategically—and the world had entered a crisis that no amount of American airpower was ever going to resolve on Washington’s terms.

Eight days later, war with Iran has not reshaped the region the way America wants. It has produced something rather different: a global energy shock, a humanitarian catastrophe, and a geopolitical reckoning that exposes, with brutal clarity, the limits of military supremacy as a tool for political transformation.

A Diplomatic Window, Deliberately Slammed Shut

The cruelest detail of this war is not its ferocity but its timing. On February 27, just twenty-four hours before the first American bombs fell on Tehran, Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr Al-Busaidi announced that a diplomatic “breakthrough” had been reached—that Iran had agreed in principle to never stockpile enriched uranium and to full international verification. A second round of nuclear talks had been scheduled for Geneva. The architecture of a deal was, by most accounts, within reach.

Instead, the Trump administration—which had spent weeks assembling the largest U.S. military presence in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq—chose the strike package over the negotiating table. “The president was faced with a choice,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters. That framing, however politically convenient, obscures the harder truth: the choice had been engineered, not inherited. Washington’s preconditions—total cessation of uranium enrichment, dismantlement of Iran’s ballistic missile program—were conditions Tehran had explicitly and repeatedly said it could not accept. The diplomacy was theatre. The war was always the plan.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres, in a statement that may endure as this conflict’s moral verdict, described the strikes as “squandering” an opportunity for diplomacy. He was not wrong. He was, in the manner of UN secretaries-general throughout history, also completely powerless to stop it.

The Human Arithmetic of “Epic Fury”

Operation Epic Fury—the Pentagon’s somewhat grandiose codename for the campaign—has, by the morning of March 7, killed at least 1,332 people in Iran, of whom at least 181 are children, according to UNICEF. Schools have been struck—most infamously, a girls’ elementary school in Minab on the very first day of the campaign, killing at least 165 schoolgirls and staff. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has said only that the Pentagon is “investigating.”

The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates the first 100 hours of the campaign cost $3.7 billion—roughly $891 million per day, with $3.5 billion of that entirely unbudgeted. US and Israeli forces have struck over 4,000 targets across Iran in the opening four days alone, a pace that war-monitoring group Airwars describes as “significantly more targets per day than any campaign in recent decades”—surpassing even the assault on Gaza that began in 2023, and the US-led campaign against ISIS.

Iran, for its part, is not lying down. Its Revolutionary Guard has launched twenty-three waves of missile and drone strikes against Israel, US bases across the Gulf, and civilian infrastructure from Riyadh to Doha to Dubai. Amazon Web Services’ Bahrain data center was taken offline after a nearby drone strike. An oil refinery in Bahrain was hit. Kuwait’s embassy operations have been suspended. A vessel was struck seven nautical miles east of Fujairah. More than 330,000 people have been forcibly displaced across the broader region. Six US servicemen have died.

Trump’s demand, as of March 6, is “unconditional surrender.” He has also announced his intention to personally select Iran’s next leader—explicitly ruling out Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the Supreme Leader assassinated in the opening salvo. The gap between what the United States is doing and what it can actually achieve has rarely been so wide.

The Oil Shock: When Geopolitics Meets the Fuel Tank

The Iran war impact on global oil markets has been, by any historical measure, extraordinary. When the Strait of Hormuz—through which approximately 20 percent of the world’s daily oil supply and significant LNG volumes normally transit—effectively closed to commercial shipping, markets responded with a violence not seen in decades.

Crude tanker transits through the Strait fell from an average of 24 vessels per day to four ships on March 1—three of them Iranian-flagged. By March 5, the Joint Maritime Information Center reported traffic at “single-digit levels”. Over 150 tankers sat at anchor outside the strait. Protection and indemnity insurance was pulled entirely for March 5 transit, making the economics of passage impossible regardless of the physical risk.

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The price response has been historic. West Texas Intermediate crude surged 35.63 percent across the week ending March 7—the largest weekly gain in the history of futures trading, dating to 1983. WTI closed at $90.90; Brent at $92.69. By Friday morning, WTI had briefly topped $86 for the first time since April 2024, and Oxford Economics noted it was up close to 30 percent since the start of the war and more than 55 percent from the January low. Barclays analysts warned clients that Brent could hit $100 per barrel by next week if tankers remain unable to traverse the Strait. UBS put a scenario for $120 Brent on the table.

Qatar’s energy minister, Saad al-Kaabi, provided what may prove the week’s most alarming single statement, telling the Financial Times that Gulf exporters would halt production entirely within days if tankers cannot pass the Strait—a scenario that could, in his words, spike oil to $150 a barrel and “bring down the economies of the world.” US retail gasoline prices have already jumped 32 cents a gallon in a single week to $3.31, the sharpest seven-day increase since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.

For central banks, the timing is diabolical. Brent has risen 36 percent since the start of the year, reigniting inflationary pressures just as monetary policymakers had hoped for clear air to cut rates. “The ongoing Iran conflict solidifies the case for many central banks to hold rates steady for now,” Nomura economists wrote in a note on Sunday. The Federal Reserve’s calculus, already complicated by domestic tariff-driven inflation, has become considerably darker.

Supply Chain Fracture Lines

The disruption extends well beyond crude oil. Iran war supply chain disruption is now running across multiple vectors simultaneously. About 10 percent of the world’s container ships are caught up in broader shipping backups, with cargo expected to begin piling up at ports and transshipment hubs in Europe and Asia. Qatar’s LNG production has been suspended—a serious blow to European winter reserves and Asian buyers who rely on the emirate as their third-largest LNG supplier. European natural gas prices nearly doubled within 48 hours, peaking above €60/MWh before partially retreating on tentative Iranian signals about talks. Aviation over the Gulf has been disrupted, with multiple carriers rerouting long-haul flights and Kuwait’s US embassy evacuated following direct strikes.

Why the Region Won’t Be “Reshaped” on Washington’s Terms

The Fallacy of the “Day After”

Every war of choice arrives with a theory of the peace that follows. In 2003, it was Iraqi democracy radiating stability across the Arab world. In 2011, it was Libyan liberation opening a new chapter for North Africa. The Trump administration’s theory—as Trump himself sketched it on Truth Social, promising to make Iran “economically bigger, better, and stronger than ever before” once it surrenders and accepts a US-selected leader—follows this tradition with striking fidelity, and with equally striking ignorance of its failures.

Iran is not Iraq in 2003. It is a nation of 90 million people with a coherent national identity, deep institutional roots, and a military-theological establishment that has spent four decades preparing for precisely this scenario. Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, warned this week that Iranian forces are “waiting” for a potential US ground invasion, and are prepared to “kill and capture thousands of US troops.” These are not empty words from a cornered regime. They are the considered statements of a state that has fought a grinding eight-year war with Iraq, absorbed decades of sanctions, and internalized—perhaps more deeply than any nation on earth—what existential threat feels like.

The critical intelligence failure lies not in underestimating Iran’s missile inventory, but in misreading how regime existential pressure changes behavior. As one geopolitics analyst put it plainly this week: “If the regime feels threatened, it’ll lash out harder than it would if it thought it could ride out the attacks.” The logic of “maximum pressure” assumes a linear relationship between military pain and political capitulation. Iran’s history suggests the relationship is inverse.

The Gulf States: Caught, Not Converted

Washington’s implicit assumption—that its Gulf Arab partners would welcome an Iran humbled or broken—has collided with a reality more complicated and more dangerous. Saudi Arabia and the UAE did not ask for Iranian missiles to rain on their territory. Riyadh’s US embassy has been struck. Bahraini refineries are on fire. Qatar, which hosts the largest US airbase in the region at Al Udeid, has intercepted multiple waves of Iranian attacks. Saudi Arabia confirmed Iranian strikes on Riyadh and its Eastern Province.

The Gulf states are, in the most literal sense, collateral damage in a war prosecuted in part on their behalf—and at their lobbying. The Washington Post reported that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman conducted multiple phone calls with Trump urging him to strike, warning that Iran would “become stronger and more dangerous if Washington did not strike immediately.” The irony now is that MBS’s kingdom is absorbing Iranian missiles while its energy exports sit stranded in tankers outside a closed strait. “Years of Iranian détente-building with the Gulf may be over,” noted Aysha Chowdhry of The Asia Group. That observation, though accurate, understates the fragility: Gulf states that were mending ties with Tehran in 2023—via Chinese mediation—are now war zones.

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China’s Strategic Patience

Beijing’s response to this crisis has been a masterclass in what might be called strategic restraint with strategic benefit. China has loudly condemned the strikes—Foreign Minister Wang Yi called the assassination of Khamenei “a grave violation of Iran’s sovereignty” and demanded an immediate halt to military operations—but has offered Tehran nothing beyond rhetoric. The reason is pragmatic: Beijing was not notified of the strikes in advance, and faces its own acute disruption from the Strait closure, given that roughly half of China’s seaborne crude imports transit through the waterway.

Yet the strategic calculus cuts both ways. China has barred the export of rare earth elements for military use—materials crucial for everything from missiles to fighter jets—which complicates America’s capacity to replenish weapons at a historically unprecedented pace of consumption. And with US military attention and resources diverted deep into the Persian Gulf, the Indo-Pacific breathing room Xi Jinping gains is, from his perspective, a strategic dividend. “China is a fair-weather friend—long on words, short on risk,” observed Craig Singleton of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. But in geopolitics, fair-weather friends who watch their rivals bleed are often the ultimate winners.

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace captured Beijing’s posture with precision: China has always maintained productive relations with Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Turkey, and Egypt simultaneously—a portfolio diversification that no other external power has matched. The war that Washington hoped would consolidate American primacy in the Middle East may, paradoxically, accelerate the region’s pivot toward Chinese mediation as the only broker trusted by all sides.

The Strategic Cost: What America Is Burning Through

The arithmetic of this campaign deserves more scrutiny than it has received. The US military has struck more than 3,000 targets in Iran and destroyed 43 Iranian warships since February 28. Iran’s ballistic missile attacks have, by the Pentagon’s own account, fallen 90 percent from peak—evidence of serious degradation. But Iran still fights. Its drone attacks have dropped only 83 percent. Its 23rd wave of missile strikes was announced this week. Its ground forces remain intact and warn of consequences for any invasion.

The weapons expenditure rates are almost certainly unsustainable. The US arsenal of precision munitions—stretched by support for Ukraine and the 2025 twelve-day war with Iran—is being consumed at a pace that no industrial base can immediately replace. China’s rare-earth export ban is not a symbolic gesture; it is a targeted intervention in America’s ability to keep this campaign going. The Senate’s vote on the War Powers Act—which failed, allowing Trump to continue the campaign—has done nothing to resolve the fundamental strategic question: what does “victory” actually look like, and who governs Iran the morning after?

Trump’s stated answer—a “great and acceptable leader” selected with direct US involvement—is not a policy. It is a fantasy that ignores every lesson of nation-building from Kabul to Baghdad to Tripoli. The Supreme Leader’s potential successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, has been explicitly ruled out by Washington. But Washington does not control Iranian succession. The IRGC, battered and enraged, retains both weapons and institutional memory. The Iranian people, who have no affection for the theocracy that has suppressed them for decades, have even less affection for foreign-imposed rulers.

The Forward Reckoning

Iran retaliation impact on global oil markets 2026 has become the dominant variable in the world economy. But the longer arc of this crisis will be measured in different currencies: the legitimacy of the international order, the durability of US alliances, the patience of Asian economies for disruption in their energy arteries, and the strategic positioning of China as the region’s indispensable mediator.

The path out of this war is not a military one. It is a negotiated one, and the very actors Washington has alienated—Oman’s mediators, Europe’s diplomats, China’s back-channels—are the ones who will ultimately have to construct it. Trump’s demand for “unconditional surrender” is not a negotiating position. It is a formula for indefinite war with a nation of 90 million that has nowhere left to retreat.

History is not kind to the architects of unnecessary wars. The mirage of a new Middle East—stable, American-aligned, Iran-free—has always been precisely that: a trick of desert light, receding as you approach it. The region’s fractures are not Iran-made. They are decades in the making, drawn in colonial borders and sustained by strategic miscalculation. No air campaign, however historic in its pace, changes those underlying geometries.

What this conflict has changed, definitively and dangerously, is the price at the pump, the temperature of the global economy, and the degree of trust that the international community extends to American statecraft.

Those are not small things. They are, in the medium term, the very foundations of the influence Washington is trying, through force, to reassert.

The Middle East will be reshaped by this war. Just not in any way that Washington planned, or that any American president will be proud to claim.


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Analysis

Qatar warns Middle East war will force Gulf to stop energy exports within days

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In the control rooms of Ras Laffan, the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility, the screens flickered to red early this week. Not because of a systems failure, but because the sky above the Qatari desert was no longer safe. When Iranian drones struck the heart of the global gas trade on Monday, they did more than damage infrastructure; they triggered a chain reaction that, according to Doha’s top energy official, will force every Gulf state to halt energy exports within days if the US-Israel war with Iran continues.

In an interview with the Financial Times that sent shockwaves through trading floors from London to Singapore, Qatar’s Minister of State for Energy Affairs, Saad al-Kaabi, delivered a stark ultimatum from the Gulf. “Everybody that has not called for force majeure we expect will do so in the next few days that this continues,” Kaabi warned. “All exporters in the Gulf region will have to call force majeure.”

The statement, parsed by every energy analyst and diplomat in real-time, confirms what many feared: the conflict has moved beyond a regional skirmish and into a direct assault on the arteries of the global economy. Here is the inside story of how the Gulf’s energy tap is being turned off, why it will take months to turn back on, and what it means for your heating bill, your factory’s supply chain, and the geopolitical order.

The Hormuz Chokepoint: Twenty Percent of Supply Goes Dark

To understand the gravity of the warning, one must look at a map. The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway flanked by Iran and Oman, is the only sea passage for Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and the majority of Saudi and Iraqi oil exports. About a fifth of the world’s total oil supply—roughly 20 million barrels per day—usually flows through this channel, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Since the outbreak of hostilities last weekend, that flow has all but ceased. No LNG vessels have transited the Strait of Hormuz since Saturday, effectively cutting off around 20% of global LNG supply. It is not a formal blockade by Tehran, but a de facto one driven by self-preservation. Insurers have hiked premiums to astronomical levels, and shipowners are refusing to risk crews and vessels through waters where at least 10 ships have already been attacked.

Kaabi put a fine point on the arithmetic of risk. “From the way we’ve seen attacks, putting vessels into the Strait… is very dangerous. It’s very close to the coast, it’s very hard to convince shipowners to go in there,” he explained. The result is a logjam. LNG carriers and oil tankers are anchored, fully laden but unable to move.

The “Force Majeure” Domino Effect

On Monday, Qatar made the first move. QatarEnergy, the state-owned giant, declared force majeure on its LNG exports. This legal clause, which frees a company from liability due to extraordinary events, was triggered after Iran targeted the Ras Laffan facility, forcing an emergency shutdown. The company also halted production across its chemical, petrochemical and downstream operations, including urea, polymers and methanol.

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Gulf ExporterStatus of ExportsKey Vulnerability
QatarHalted (Force Majeure)100% of LNG exports via Hormuz; Ras Laffan plant directly attacked.
IraqPartial HaltStorage tanks full at major oil fields; exports suspended via Kurdistan-Turkey pipeline.
KuwaitImminent Halt100% of oil exports via Hormuz; no alternative pipeline routes.
Saudi ArabiaDisruptedRas Tanura refinery hit; limited pipeline capacity to Red Sea (Abqaiq-Yanbu).
UAEDisruptedPartial pipeline capacity to Fujairah (bypassing Hormuz), but shipping risks persist.

But the key detail in Kaabi’s warning is the inevitability of the spread. Iraq has already begun halting operations at its largest oil fields because storage tanks are full; with nowhere for the crude to go, production must stop. Kuwait and Bahrain, which have no pipeline alternatives, face an immediate existential choice: keep producing and risk running out of storage, or shut in wells and declare force majeure themselves.

“If this war continues for a few weeks, GDP growth around the world will be impacted,” Kaabi told the FT. “Everybody’s energy price is going to go higher. There will be shortages of some products and there will be a chain reaction of factories that cannot supply.”

The Price Spike: From $89 to $150

The markets, often slow to price in geopolitical risk, have finally awakened. Brent crude broke above $90 per barrel on Friday after President Donald Trump demanded unconditional surrender from Iran, but this is merely the opening act. Kaabi predicted that if the Hormuz shutdown persists for two to three weeks, crude will soar to $150 a barrel—levels not seen since the 2022 energy crisis.

Natural gas is facing an even more violent correction. European benchmark TTF futures surged nearly 50% in the days following the attack, hitting multi-year highs. Kaabi forecasts gas prices will hit $40 per million British thermal units (MMBtu)—a fourfold increase from pre-war levels. For context, Goldman Sachs warned that a month-long halt to flows through Hormuz risks driving TTF prices toward levels that “triggered large natural gas demand responses” during the 2022 European energy crisis, forcing fertilizer plants in Germany to close and petrochemical makers in South Korea to slash output.

Asia versus Europe: The Scramble for Scraps

The disruption exposes a critical imbalance in global energy security. While Qatar supplies only a small fraction of Europe’s gas directly, it dominates the Asian market, with over 80% of its LNG going to China, Japan, India, and South Korea. According to the EIA, approximately 84% of crude oil and condensate shipments transiting the Strait of Hormuz in 2024 were headed to Asian markets, with China, India, Japan and South Korea accounting for a combined 69% of all flows.

Here is the brutal physics of the global gas market: if Asian buyers cannot get their contracted Qatari cargoes, they will outbid Europe for every available molecule of LNG from the US or Africa. Europe is entering this bidding war from a position of weakness. The continent’s gas storage sites are at around 30% full, well below the 62% level recorded at the same point in 2024, and it desperately needs to refill them before next winter.

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The Brussels-based think tank Bruegel highlighted that Europe would be “forced to compete with Asian buyers for flexible cargoes on the spot market”—something not seen since the 2021–2023 energy crisis. With the Red Sea already too dangerous for Qatari tankers since January, the closure of Hormuz means the Middle East is effectively offline. Europe is now in a bidding war for Atlantic supplies that simply do not exist in sufficient quantity.

The “Weeks to Months” Recovery

Perhaps the most chilling part of Kaabi’s analysis was reserved for the aftermath. Even if the guns fall silent tomorrow, the energy crisis will not.

Shutting down a liquefaction plant is not like flipping a light switch. It is a delicate, dangerous process of cooling equipment down to prevent thermal shock. Restarting is even harder. Once the process begins, it takes about two weeks to bring the plant back online and another two weeks to ramp up to full capacity.

“It will take ‘weeks to months’ to return to a normal cycle of deliveries,” Kaabi admitted. Furthermore, the $30 billion North Field expansion project—the lynchpin of future global gas supply scheduled to come online in mid-2026—will now be delayed. “It will delay all our expansion plans for sure,” Kaabi said. “If we come back in a week, perhaps the effect is minimal; if it’s a month or two, it is different.”

The View from Washington and Tehran

The Trump administration is watching with alarm. President Donald Trump has promised that the US Navy will escort tankers and provide insurance guarantees. But in practice, as Kaabi noted, “Most shipowners will think they are going to be a bigger target because the Iranians are targeting warships.” The promise of a naval escort may actually increase the perceived risk for commercial vessels.

On the other side, a senior adviser to the commander-in-chief of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps told state television that Iranian forces “won’t allow a single drop of oil to leave the region”. With Iranian state media boasting of their resolve, the prospects for a rapid diplomatic solution appear dim.

The Human and Industrial Toll

Beyond the headlines of barrels and BTUs, this is a story about jobs and heating bills. A sustained oil price spike translates directly to pain at the pump—retail gasoline in the US has already jumped nearly 27 cents per gallon since the conflict began. In Europe, it reignites inflation just as central banks were hoping to declare victory.

For industry, the halt in Gulf exports is about raw materials. The Gulf produces much of the world’s naphtha (for plastics) and feedstocks for fertilizers. “In certain industrial sectors, particularly chemicals, the conflict is already leading to a slowdown in production,” with companies preferring to reduce output rather than buy energy at these prices. “There will be a chain reaction of factories that cannot supply,” Kaabi warned. We are looking at potential supply chain disruptions that rival the pandemic-era logjams, but this time driven by a lack of energy, not a lack of containers.

Conclusion: The Clock is Ticking

The warning from Doha is not a threat; it is a physics lesson. You cannot export what you cannot ship. You cannot ship through a war zone. And you cannot restart a complex energy system overnight.

Qatar has effectively told the world that the era of cheap, reliable Gulf energy is on pause until the shooting stops. If the conflict drags into next week, the force majeure declarations will cascade. By all analyst projections, the global economy faces an energy shock that rivals the worst supply disruptions in modern history. The only question remaining is whether diplomats in Washington and Tehran are listening to the clock ticking in Doha before it strikes zero.


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Analysis

Pakistan’s Humiliating Defeat to India: A Catalog of Captaincy Failures at T20 World Cup 2026

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India’s 61-run demolition of Pakistan in Colombo exposes systematic flaws in team selection, tactical nous, and leadership under Salman Agha

When Salman Agha won the toss and elected to bowl first under the Colombo floodlights on Sunday evening, few could have predicted the scale of Pakistan’s capitulation that would follow. India’s comprehensive 61-run victory—their eighth win in nine T20 World Cup encounters against their arch-rivals—was not merely a defeat. It was an autopsy of Pakistan cricket’s endemic problems: mystifying team selections, baffling tactical decisions, and a captaincy that appears chronically underprepared for the intensity of India-Pakistan clashes.

The scoreline tells part of the story. India posted 175/7 in their 20 overs, with Ishan Kishan’s blistering 77 off 40 balls serving as the cornerstone. In response, Pakistan crumbled to 114 all out in just 18 overs, their batting lineup disintegrating like a sandcastle before the tide. But the numbers alone cannot capture the deeper malaise—the inexplicable decision-making that has become a hallmark of Pakistan’s recent tournament play.

The Toss That Lost the Match

Salman Agha won the toss and decided to bowl first on what he described as a “tacky” surface, believing it would assist bowlers in the early overs. The logic appeared sound on paper: exploit early movement, restrict India to a manageable total, and chase under lights as the pitch improved. India’s captain Suryakumar Yadav, by contrast, indicated they would have batted first anyway, expecting the pitch to slow down enough to counter any dew advantage later.

The decision proved catastrophic. On spin-friendly Colombo tracks that historically become harder to bat on as matches progress, Pakistan handed India first use of the surface. As events unfolded, 175 became the highest score in India-Pakistan T20 World Cup history—hardly the restricted total Agha had envisioned. Worse, when Pakistan batted, the pitch offered turn and variable bounce that rendered strokeplay treacherous.

The toss decision encapsulated a broader failure of match awareness. Senior analysts on ESPN Cricinfo noted that if pitches are tacky to begin with, they tend to get better as temperatures drop at night—precisely the opposite of Agha’s reasoning. This fundamental misreading of conditions set the tone for what followed.

The Selection Mysteries: Fakhar, Naseem, and Nafay

Perhaps nothing better illustrates Pakistan’s rudderless approach than the team selection. Three players with proven credentials against India—or specific skills suited to Colombo conditions—were inexplicably relegated to the bench.

Fakhar Zaman, one of Pakistan’s most destructive limited-overs batsmen, watched from the sidelines despite his storied history against India. Fakhar has played 117 T20Is, scoring 2,385 runs at a strike rate of 130.75, and his 2017 Champions Trophy century against India remains one of Pakistan cricket’s defining moments. His aggressive batting style and ability to play pace and spin with equal fluency made him an obvious selection for the high-pressure cauldron of an India clash. Yet the team management persisted with Babar Azam at number four—a batsman who managed just 5 runs off 7 balls before being bowled by Axar Patel and whose recent form against India has been woeful.

Naseem Shah, the young pace sensation who has repeatedly demonstrated his ability to extract bounce and movement even from docile surfaces, was another puzzling omission. While Pakistan’s squad featured Naseem as a key pace option alongside Shaheen Shah Afridi, the playing XI instead deployed Faheem Ashraf—a bowler whose international returns have been modest at best. Naseem’s pace and ability to hit the deck hard would have provided the ideal counterpoint to India’s aggressive openers, particularly on a pitch offering assistance to quicker bowlers in the early overs.

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Khawaja Nafay, named in the 15-man squad as a wicketkeeper-batsman option, similarly failed to make the cut. His exclusion was particularly glaring given Pakistan’s top-order fragility and the presence of two specialist wicketkeepers (Usman Khan and Sahibzada Farhan) in the lineup already.

The cumulative effect was a team that looked ill-equipped for the challenge, lacking both firepower and balance.

Spinner Overload: Too Many Cooks

If the batting order selections raised eyebrows, Pakistan’s bowling composition bordered on the incomprehensible. The team fielded a staggering array of spin options: Saim Ayub (part-time left-arm orthodox), Abrar Ahmed (leg-spinner/googly specialist), Shadab Khan (leg-spinner), Mohammad Nawaz (left-arm orthodox), Usman Tariq (mystery spinner), and captain Salman Agha himself (off-spinner).

Six spin options in a T20 match. The redundancy was staggering.

To make matters worse, Pakistan bowled five overs of spin in the powerplay alone—only the 13th time in T20 World Cup history that a fifth spin over has been bowled inside a powerplay. While the Colombo surface offered turn, this approach played directly into India’s hands. Kishan, a devastatingly effective player of spin, feasted on the lack of variety. Shadab Khan, Abrar Ahmed, and Shaheen Shah Afridi combined to concede 86 runs in six overs—a hemorrhaging of runs that effectively ended the contest as a spectacle.

The tactical poverty was evident in specific passages of play. Pakistan bowled Shadab Khan to two left-handed batters and brought Abrar Ahmed back despite him having a “stinker” of a night. In the death overs, rather than employing spin to squeeze India, Shaheen Shah Afridi was brought back for the final over and plundered for 16 runs, allowing India to surge past 175.

The spinner overload wasn’t merely a tactical misstep—it revealed a captain uncertain of his resources and unwilling to commit to a coherent plan.

The Batting Order Blunder: Agha Before Babar

Among the more peculiar decisions was the batting order itself. Salman Agha, the captain and an all-rounder by trade, was promoted to number three—ahead of Babar Azam, Pakistan’s most accomplished batsman.Even players like Mohammad Haris , Mohammad Rizwan ,Minhas were not picked for the squad , It is big blunder made by Aquib Javed and others who slected the squad . Pakistan team did not select the aggressive players like Abdul Samad and already wasted talented Asif Ali and Irfan Khan Niazi . There was none who could hit six to shift the pressure and speed up momentum . The chequred history of defeats against India in world cup still hounds and same happened today .Will anybody take the responsibility of poor selection and worst captaincy to step down and fix the issues . Even the smaller and new teams like,Afghanistan ,USA , Italy , Zimbabwe performed well and gave tough time to opponents . When will they learn the lesson . They prove to be a wall of Sand against India in world cup encounters disappointed and hurting the feelinhs and dreams of the fans .

The rationale is unclear. Agha’s T20 record is respectable but hardly stellar; his primary value lies in his ability to bowl tidy off-spin and provide lower-order impetus. Elevating him above Babar—who, despite recent struggles, remains Pakistan’s premier accumulator—suggested either a crisis of confidence in Babar or a fundamental misunderstanding of optimal batting orders.

When Pakistan’s chase began, the decision’s folly became immediately apparent. Hardik Pandya dismissed Sahibzada Farhan for a duck in his first over, and Jasprit Bumrah then removed both Saim Ayub and Salman Agha in quick succession. Pakistan found themselves at 13 for 3 within two overs, with their captain having contributed a meager 4 runs. Babar entered at the fall of the third wicket and lasted just 16 balls before departing for 5, caught between the need for consolidation and the mounting run rate.

The structural flaw was glaring: by promoting Agha, Pakistan had effectively wasted a top-order slot. Had Babar batted at three or as opener—his natural positions—he might have anchored the innings through the powerplay carnage. Instead, Pakistan’s best batsman arrived with the game already slipping away, the asking rate climbing, and pressure mounting exponentially.Pakistan failed to dominate both the pace and Spin attack of India .

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Kishan’s Masterclass and India’s Clinical Execution

To credit Pakistan’s failings alone would be to diminish India’s superlative performance. Ishan Kishan’s 77 off 40 balls, featuring 10 fours and 3 sixes, set the template for an innings of controlled aggression. Kishan’s ability to dominate Pakistan’s spin-heavy attack—particularly his audacious strokeplay against Abrar Ahmed and Mohammad Nawaz—showcased the chasm in class and preparation between the two sides.

Captain Suryakumar Yadav contributed 32 off 29 balls, while Shivam Dube’s 27 off 17 deliveries and Tilak Varma’s 25 off 24 balls provided crucial support. India’s depth allowed them to absorb the twin blows of Abhishek Sharma’s early dismissal and Hardik Pandya’s duck, building partnerships and accelerating at will.

With the ball, India were relentless. Hardik Pandya and Jasprit Bumrah shared three early wickets, reducing Pakistan to 38/4 at the end of the powerplay. Axar Patel claimed two crucial scalps, including Babar Azam, while Varun Chakaravarthy’s 2 for 17 included back-to-back dismissals of Faheem Ashraf and Abrar Ahmed. The variety and precision of India’s attack—three seamers, three spinners, all delivering match-winning spells—stood in stark contrast to Pakistan’s scattergun approach.

A Pattern of Captaincy Failures

Salman Agha’s tenure as Pakistan captain has been brief, but the India match crystallized a troubling pattern. This was not an isolated aberration but rather symptomatic of deeper issues within Pakistan cricket: reactive rather than proactive thinking, selection driven by sentiment rather than form, and tactical naivety at crucial junctures.

Former Pakistan cricketers have been scathing. Ahead of the match, Rashid Latif, Mohammad Amir, and Ahmed Shehzad openly questioned Babar’s continued place in the team, highlighting concerns about his strike rate and diminishing returns in high-pressure games. Their prophecies proved prescient: Babar’s failure was emblematic of a team trapped between nostalgia for past glories and the brutal demands of modern T20 cricket.

The Pakistan Cricket Board’s instability has not helped. Frequent changes in leadership, coaching staff, and selection philosophy have created an environment where mediocrity is tolerated and accountability is scarce. This instability trickles down to team selection and on-field strategy, producing the kind of rudderless performance witnessed in Colombo.

What Now for Pakistan?

Pakistan’s path to the Super Eight stage remains viable but fraught with peril. They must now beat Namibia in their final group game to secure progression, a task that should be straightforward but, given recent form, carries no guarantees.

Beyond results, however, Pakistan faces deeper questions. Can Salman Agha learn from this debacle and impose a coherent tactical identity? Will the selectors have the courage to drop underperforming big names like Babar in favor of form players like Fakhar? And can the PCB provide the stability necessary for long-term planning rather than lurching from crisis to crisis?

The answers will define not only this tournament but Pakistan cricket’s trajectory for years to come. For now, the evidence suggests a team—and a system—in disarray.

Key Takeaways

  • Toss Blunder: Pakistan’s decision to bowl first on a pitch that would deteriorate backfired spectacularly
  • Selection Errors: Fakhar Zaman, Naseem Shah, and Khawaja Nafay inexplicably benched despite strong credentials
  • Spinner Overload: Six spin options diluted Pakistan’s bowling attack, allowing India to dominate
  • Batting Order Chaos: Salman Agha promoted above Babar Azam defied logic and wasted a top-order slot
  • Systemic Issues: PCB instability and lack of accountability continue to undermine team performance

Match Summary:
India 175/7 (20 overs) – Ishan Kishan 77 (40), Suryakumar Yadav 32 (29); Saim Ayub 3/25
Pakistan 114 (18 overs) – Usman Khan 44 (34); Hardik Pandya 2/16, Jasprit Bumrah 2/17, Varun Chakaravarthy 2/17
Result: India won by 61 runs

About the Match: The encounter at R. Premadasa Stadium marked India’s eighth win over Pakistan in nine T20 World Cup meetings, reinforcing their psychological dominance in cricket’s most-watched rivalry. The result secured India’s passage to the Super Eight stage while leaving Pakistan’s campaign hanging by a thread.


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Analysis

The Kashmir Conflict and the Reality of Crimes Against Humanity

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Crimes against humanity represent one of the most serious affronts to human dignity and collective conscience. They embody patterns of widespread or systematic violence directed against civilian populations — including murder, enforced disappearances, torture, persecution, sexual violence, deportation, and other inhumane acts that shock the moral order of humanity. The United Nations Conference of Plenipotentiaries on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime against Humanity presents a historic opportunity to strengthen global resolve, reinforce legal frameworks, and advance cooperation among states to ensure accountability, justice, and meaningful prevention.

While the international legal architecture has evolved significantly since the aftermath of the Second World War, important normative and institutional gaps remain. The Genocide Convention of 1948 and the Geneva Conventions established foundational legal protections, and the creation of the International Criminal Court reinforced accountability mechanisms. Yet, unlike genocide and war crimes, there is still no stand-alone comprehensive convention dedicated exclusively to crimes against humanity. This structural omission has limited the capacity of states to adopt consistent domestic legislation, harmonize cooperation frameworks, and pursue perpetrators who move across borders. The Conference of Plenipotentiaries seeks to fill this critical void.

The Imperative of Prevention

Prevention must stand at the core of the international community’s approach. Too often, the world reacts to atrocities only after irreparable harm has been inflicted and communities have been devastated. A meaningful prevention framework requires early warning mechanisms, stronger monitoring capacities, transparent reporting, and a willingness by states and institutions to act before crises escalate. Education in human rights, inclusive governance, rule of law strengthening, and responsible security practices are equally essential elements of prevention.

Civil society organizations, academic institutions, moral leaders, and human rights defenders play a vital role in documenting abuses, amplifying the voices of victims, and urging action when warning signs emerge. Their protection and meaningful participation must therefore be an integral component of any preventive strategy. Without civic space, truth is silenced — and without truth, accountability becomes impossible.

Accountability and the Rule of Law

Accountability is not an act of punishment alone; it is an affirmation of universal human values. When perpetrators enjoy impunity, cycles of violence deepen, victims are re-traumatized, and the integrity of international law erodes. Strengthening judicial cooperation — including extradition, mutual legal assistance, and evidence-sharing — is essential to closing enforcement gaps. Equally important is the responsibility of states to incorporate crimes against humanity into domestic criminal law, ensuring that such crimes can be prosecuted fairly and independently at the national level.

Justice must also be survivor centered. Victims and affected communities deserve recognition, reparations, psychological support, and the assurance that their suffering has not been ignored. Truth-seeking mechanisms and memorialization efforts help restore dignity and foster long-term reconciliation.

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The Role of Multilateralism

The Conference reinforces the indispensable role of multilateralism in confronting global challenges. Atrocities rarely occur in isolation; they are rooted in political exclusion, discrimination, securitization of societies, and structural inequalities. No state, however powerful, can confront these dynamics alone. Shared norms, coordinated diplomatic engagement, and principled international cooperation are vital to preventing abuses and responding when they occur.

Multilateral commitments must also be matched with political will. Declarations are meaningful only when accompanied by implementation, transparency, and accountability to both domestic and international publics.

Technology, Media, and Modern Challenges

Contemporary conflicts and crises unfold in an increasingly digital and interconnected world. Technology can illuminate truth — enabling documentation, verification, and preservation of evidence — but it can also be weaponized to spread hate, dehumanization, and incitement. Strengthening responsible digital governance, countering disinformation, and supporting credible documentation initiatives are essential tools for both prevention and accountability. Journalists, researchers, and human rights monitors must be protected from reprisals for their work.

Climate-related stress, demographic shifts, and political polarization further complicate the landscape in which vulnerabilities emerge. The Conference should therefore promote a holistic understanding of risk factors that may precipitate widespread or systematic violence.

A Universal Commitment — With Local Realities

While the principles guiding this Convention are universal, their application must be sensitive to local histories, languages, cultures, and institutional realities. Effective implementation depends on national ownership, capacity-building, judicial training, and inclusive policymaking that engages women, youth, minorities, and marginalized communities. The pursuit of justice must never be perceived as externally imposed, but rather as an expression of shared human values anchored within domestic legal systems.

The Kashmir Conflict and the Reality of Crimes Against Humanity

Crimes against humanity do not emerge overnight. They develop through sustained patterns of abuse, erosion of legal safeguards, and the normalization of repression. Jammu and Kashmir presents a contemporary case study of these dynamics.

Under international law, crimes against humanity encompass widespread or systematic attacks directed against a civilian population, including imprisonment, torture, persecution, enforced disappearance, and other inhumane acts. Evidence emerging from Kashmir—documented by UN experts, international NGOs, journalists, and scholars—demonstrates patterns that meet these legal criteria.

The invocation of “national security” has become the central mechanism through which extraordinary powers are exercised without effective judicial oversight. Draconian laws are routinely used to silence dissent, detain human rights defenders, restrict movement, and suppress independent media. This securitized governance has produced what many Kashmiris describe as the “peace of the graveyard”—an imposed silence rather than genuine peace.

Early-warning frameworks for mass atrocities are particularly instructive. Gregory Stanton identifies Kashmir as exhibiting multiple risk indicators, including classification and discrimination, denial of civil rights, militarization, and impunity. These indicators, if left unaddressed, historically precede mass atrocity crimes.

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The systematic silencing of journalists, as warned by the Committee to Protect Journalists, and the targeting of academics and diaspora voices—such as the denial of entry to Dr. Nitasha Kaul and the cancellation of travel documents of elderly activists like Amrit Wilson—demonstrate repression extending beyond borders.

The joint statement by ten UN Special Rapporteurs (2025) regarding one of internationally known human rights defender – Khurram Parvez – underscores that these are not isolated incidents but part of a broader pattern involving arbitrary detention, torture, discriminatory treatment, and custodial deaths. Together, these acts form a systematic attack on a civilian population, triggering the international community’s responsibility to act.

This Conference offers a critical opportunity to reaffirm that sovereignty cannot be a shield for crimes against humanity. Kashmir illustrates the urgent need for:

  • Preventive diplomacy grounded in early warning mechanisms.
  • Independent investigations and universal jurisdiction where applicable.
  • Stronger protections for journalists, scholars, and human rights defenders, including Irfan Mehraj, Abdul Aaala Fazili, Hilal Mir, Asif Sultan and others.
  • Victim-centered justice and accountability frameworks for Mohammad Yasin Malik, Shabir Ahmed Shah, Masarat Aalam, Aasia Andrabi, Fehmeeda Sofi, Nahida Nasreen and others.
  •  

Recognizing Kashmir within the crimes-against-humanity discourse is not political—it is legal, moral, and preventive. Failure to act risks entrenching impunity and undermining the very purpose of international criminal law.

Conclusion

The United Nations Conference of Plenipotentiaries carries profound moral, legal, and historical significance. It represents not only a technical exercise in treaty development but a reaffirmation of humanity’s collective promise — that no people, anywhere, should face systematic cruelty without recourse to justice and protection. By advancing a comprehensive Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime against Humanity, the international community strengthens its resolve to stand with victims, confront impunity, and uphold the sanctity of human dignity.

The success of this effort will ultimately depend on our willingness to transform commitments into action, principles into practice, and aspiration into enduring protection for present and future generations.

Dr. Fai submitted this paper to the Organizers of the Preparatory Committee for the United Nations Conference of Plenipotentiaries on Prevention and Punishment of Crimes against Humanity on behalf of PCSWHR which is headed by Dr. Ijaz Noori, an internationally known interfaith expert. The conference took place at the UN headquarters between January 19 – 30, 2026.


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