China
US-China Military Talks Remain at Odds Over Taiwan Ahead of Election
Table of Contents
Introduction
US and Chinese officials have been unable to reach a consensus on Taiwan during their recent military talks, which took place days ahead of the island’s election. At the Defence Policy Coordination Talks in Washington, Chinese officials urged the US to stop arming Taiwan, while the US reiterated its support for the one-China policy. This marks the first meeting of its kind since Beijing suspended talks in 2022.

The Taiwan Arms Sale Controversy has been a persistent issue between the two nations, with the US continuing to sell weapons to the self-ruled island, despite China’s objections. The ongoing tensions over Taiwan have been further heightened due to the upcoming presidential election in Taiwan, which has been seen as a referendum on the island’s independence.
The US and China have been at odds over a range of issues, including trade and technology, but the Taiwan issue has been a particularly sensitive one for Beijing. The US has been trying to balance its support for Taiwan with its desire to maintain good relations with China, but the recent military talks have shown that the two nations remain far apart on this issue.
Key Takeaways
- US and Chinese officials have failed to reach an agreement on Taiwan during their recent military talks.
- The Taiwan Arms Sale Controversy continues to be a contentious issue between the two nations.
- The upcoming presidential election in Taiwan has heightened tensions over the issue of independence.
US-Chinese Military Talks

Background of Defence Policy Coordination Talks
The Defence Policy Coordination Talks between the United States and China are a series of meetings held to discuss military and security issues. The talks were first established in 1997 and were suspended by China in 2022. The latest round of talks was held in Washington, D.C. in January 2024.
Resumption After Suspension in 2022
The resumption of the Defence Policy Coordination Talks in 2024 was a positive sign of progress in US-China relations. However, tensions between the two nations remained high, particularly over the issue of Taiwan. During the talks, Chinese officials urged the US to stop arming the self-ruled island, which China considers a renegade province. The US, in turn, reaffirmed its support for its one-China policy.
Despite the disagreements, both sides expressed a willingness to continue the dialogue and work towards finding common ground. The talks were seen as an important step towards improving communication and reducing the risk of military conflict between the two nations.
Overall, the resumption of the Defence Policy Coordination Talks was a positive development in US-China relations, but the issue of Taiwan remains a major point of contention. The talks demonstrated the importance of continued dialogue and cooperation between the two nations to maintain stability and peace in the Asia-Pacific region.
Taiwan Arms Sale Controversy

The ongoing controversy over US arms sales to Taiwan has been a major point of contention between the United States and China. During the Defence Policy Coordination Talks in Washington, Chinese officials urged the US to stop arming the self-ruled island, citing the One-China policy. The talks took place just days ahead of Taiwan’s presidential election, which heightened tensions between the two nations.
Chinese Opposition to US Arms Sales
China has long opposed US arms sales to Taiwan, which it considers a breakaway province. Beijing views these sales as a violation of the One-China policy, which states that there is only one China and that Taiwan is a part of it. China has repeatedly warned the US against such sales and has threatened to take action if they continue.
US Reaffirmation of One-China Policy
Despite Chinese opposition, the US reaffirmed its commitment to the One-China policy at the Defence Policy Coordination Talks. This was the first meeting of its kind since Beijing suspended talks in 2022. The US reiterated its support for the policy and stated that it would continue to sell arms to Taiwan in accordance with the Taiwan Relations Act.
In conclusion, the Taiwan arms sale controversy remains a major point of contention between the US and China. While China opposes US arms sales to Taiwan, the US has reaffirmed its commitment to the One-China policy and its support for Taiwan. The ongoing tensions between the two nations are likely to continue as long as this controversy remains unresolved.
Election Context

The recent Defence Policy Coordination Talks in Washington between the US and China have had a significant impact on the upcoming elections. With Chinese officials urging the US to stop arming the self-ruled island of Taiwan, tensions have risen between the two nations.
Impact of Military Talks on Upcoming Elections
The US reaffirmed its support for the one-China policy during the talks, which have been the first of their kind since Beijing suspended talks in 2022. However, this has not deterred China from urging the US to stop arming Taiwan.
This issue has become a major topic of discussion in the US election campaigns, with both parties taking a stance on the issue. The Republicans have been supportive of Taiwan and have criticized the Democrats for being soft on China. On the other hand, the Democrats have been cautious not to upset China and have emphasized the need for diplomacy.
Strategic Timing of the Talks
The timing of the talks has also been strategic, with the elections just days away. China’s move to urge the US to stop arming Taiwan comes at a time when tensions between the two nations are already high. This move is seen as an attempt by China to influence the US elections and to test the resolve of the US.
The talks have also been seen as a way for both nations to send a message to each other. The US has reaffirmed its support for the one-China policy, while China has made it clear that it will not tolerate any interference in its internal affairs.
Overall, the Defence Policy Coordination Talks have had a significant impact on the upcoming elections, and the issue of Taiwan is likely to remain a contentious issue between the US and China.
Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current state of US-Taiwan relations following the recent military talks?
The recent Defence Policy Coordination Talks between the US and China saw Chinese officials urging the US to stop arming Taiwan, which they consider a self-ruled island. Despite this, the US reaffirmed its support for its one-China policy, which recognizes Beijing as the sole legal government of China and Taiwan as a part of China. The talks mark the first meeting of its kind since Beijing suspended talks in 2022.
How does the US one-China policy affect its defence relationship with Taiwan?
The US one-China policy has a significant impact on its defence relationship with Taiwan. While the US does not officially recognize Taiwan as an independent country, it has maintained unofficial relations with Taiwan and has continued to provide arms and military support to the island. However, the US has also made it clear that it does not support Taiwan’s independence and that any resolution of the Taiwan issue must be peaceful and acceptable to both sides.
What are the implications of US arms sales to Taiwan on Sino-American relations?
US arms sales to Taiwan have long been a source of tension in Sino-American relations. China views such sales as a violation of its sovereignty and has repeatedly called on the US to stop them. The US, on the other hand, argues that it has a responsibility to help maintain peace and stability in the region and that such sales are necessary to ensure Taiwan’s defense. The issue remains a contentious one and is likely to continue to be a source of tension between the two countries.
What historical events have shaped the current territorial status of Taiwan?
Taiwan’s territorial status has been shaped by a number of historical events, including the Chinese Civil War, which ended in 1949 with the Communist Party’s victory over the Nationalist Party. The Nationalists fled to Taiwan and established a government there, while the Communists established the People’s Republic of China on the mainland. Since then, Taiwan has been governed separately from the mainland, but China has continued to claim sovereignty over the island.
Why does the United States consider Taiwan strategically significant?
The United States considers Taiwan strategically significant for a number of reasons. First, Taiwan is located in a strategically important location in the Western Pacific, which makes it a key player in regional security. Second, Taiwan is a democratic country with a vibrant economy, which makes it an important partner for the US in the region. Finally, Taiwan’s relationship with China is a key factor in the US-China relationship, making it an important issue for US foreign policy.
How have recent tensions between the US and China impacted regional security in East Asia?
Recent tensions between the US and China have had a significant impact on regional security in East Asia. The two countries have been engaged in a number of disputes, including over trade, territorial claims in the South China Sea, and Taiwan. These disputes have led to increased military activity in the region and have raised concerns about the potential for conflict. As a result, many countries in the region are looking to strengthen their own defense capabilities and are seeking closer ties with the US as a counterbalance to China’s growing influence.
AI
The Return of the Dragon’s Allure
For much of the past four years, China’s equity markets have been a graveyard of foreign enthusiasm. International investors, once captivated by the promise of the world’s second-largest economy, retreated amid a property crisis, regulatory crackdowns, and geopolitical tensions. The narrative was one of caution, even resignation: China, many argued, had lost its luster. Yet markets are creatures of sentiment, and sentiment can pivot with startling speed. The recent surge of foreign inflows — the largest since 2021 — marks a turning point. The catalyst is not a stimulus package or a central bank maneuver, but a technological breakthrough that has jolted investors awake.
Table of Contents
A Market Long in the Shadows
China’s stock market has endured a bruising half-decade. The collapse of property developers, most notably Evergrande, cast a long shadow over the economy. Regulatory interventions in tech — from e-commerce giants to private tutoring firms — rattled confidence. Foreign ownership of Chinese equities fell to multi-year lows, with MSCI China underperforming global peers by double digits. The Shanghai Composite stagnated, while capital fled to safer havens in the U.S. and Europe. For many, China became synonymous with risk rather than opportunity.
DeepSeek AI: A Shock to the System
Enter DeepSeek, a little-known Chinese AI lab that stunned the world with a breakthrough in generative intelligence. Its model, hailed as a leap beyond existing architectures, demonstrated capabilities that rivaled — and in some cases surpassed — Western counterparts. The symbolism was profound: Beijing was no longer playing catch-up in the AI race. Investors, fatigued by narratives of Chinese decline, suddenly saw evidence of innovation at scale. DeepSeek became shorthand for a broader truth — that China’s technological ecosystem remains formidable, underestimated, and capable of reshaping global competition.
The breakthrough did more than impress engineers. It shifted investor psychology. AI is the defining growth story of this decade, and China now has a flagship to rival Silicon Valley. For foreign funds, the logic was simple: ignore China at your peril.
The Surge of Capital
The numbers tell the story. In October and November 2025, foreign investors poured over $25 billion into Chinese equities, the largest two-month inflow since 2021. The CSI 300 index rallied nearly 12% in the same period, while the MSCI China index outperformed emerging market peers for the first time in years. Tech and semiconductor stocks led the charge, with AI-linked firms posting double-digit gains. Even beleaguered consumer discretionary names saw renewed interest, buoyed by expectations that AI-driven productivity could lift broader growth.
The inflows were not indiscriminate. Capital targeted sectors aligned with innovation: cloud computing, chip design, robotics, and biotech. Foreign ownership of Chinese technology firms rose from 3.8% to 5.1% in just weeks, reversing years of decline. Hedge funds, sovereign wealth funds, and pension managers — long absent — returned with conviction.
Policy Signals and the State’s Hand
The surge was amplified by policy signals from Beijing. Regulators, chastened by the backlash to earlier crackdowns, have softened their tone. The government has rolled out tax incentives for AI firms, streamlined approval processes for foreign investors, and emphasized “predictability” in regulatory frameworks. The People’s Bank of China has kept liquidity ample, while fiscal authorities have hinted at targeted support for innovation hubs.
Macroeconomic indicators, though mixed, have offered reassurance. Industrial output rose 5.2% year-on-year in Q3, while exports stabilized after months of decline. Inflation remains subdued, giving policymakers room to maneuver. For investors, the message is clear: Beijing wants capital, and it is willing to accommodate.
Global Reverberations
The implications stretch far beyond China. Global capital allocation is being recalibrated. For years, emerging market flows were dominated by India, Brazil, and Southeast Asia, while China languished. The DeepSeek moment has reinserted China into the conversation. Asset managers are rebalancing portfolios, shifting weight back to Chinese equities at the expense of other emerging markets.
The tech sector, too, feels the tremors. U.S. markets, long buoyed by AI enthusiasm, now face competition for investor dollars. DeepSeek’s breakthrough has rattled assumptions about American dominance in innovation. Europe, struggling to carve its own AI niche, watches uneasily as capital gravitates eastward. The geopolitical chessboard of technology is being redrawn, with investors as the pawns and beneficiaries alike.
Risks and Skepticism
Yet caution remains warranted. Transparency in Chinese firms is uneven, and corporate governance standards lag global norms. Geopolitical tensions — from U.S.-China trade disputes to Taiwan — could flare at any moment, disrupting flows. The AI sector itself is prone to hype; breakthroughs can dazzle but fail to commercialize. Investors must ask whether DeepSeek represents a sustainable trend or a singular anomaly.
Moreover, the property sector’s malaise has not vanished. Household debt remains high, and consumer confidence fragile. Foreign inflows, while impressive, are concentrated in a narrow band of sectors. A broader recovery in China’s equity market will require more than AI enthusiasm.
A Forward-Looking Thesis
Still, the return of foreign capital is significant. It challenges the prevailing wisdom that China is uninvestable, that its markets are permanently tainted by risk. DeepSeek has reminded the world that innovation is not the monopoly of Silicon Valley. For investors, the lesson is provocative: to bet against China is to bet against the possibility of surprise.
The surge of inflows may not herald a straight-line recovery. Volatility will persist, and skepticism will endure. But the turning point is undeniable. China has reasserted itself as a locus of technological ambition, and global capital has responded. The dragon, long subdued, has roared again — not through stimulus or decree, but through invention.
China
The New Great Game: US Retreat vs. China Peace Diplomacy 🕊️
In an era of shifting global influence, the foreign policy approaches of the world’s two largest powers—the United States (US) and China—present a stark geopolitical contrast. While the US, particularly under the previous administration, pursued a high-profile, rhetorical strategy centered on “ending wars” through large-scale troop withdrawals, China has quietly but effectively intensified its pragmatic regional diplomacy. This difference in style is more than just optics; it reflects fundamentally different calculations for projecting power and securing long-term interests, with China’s less-publicized mediation efforts increasingly challenging the established international order.
The central thesis here is that overt, maximalist actions, like those characterized by the US rhetoric of disengagement, often yield instability, while China’s “quiet diplomacy,” focused on localized conflict resolution, offers a more sustainable, high-effectiveness mechanism for projecting global influence. This article will critically analyze these two divergent paths.
Table of Contents
The Rhetoric of Retreat: The US “Ending Wars” Approach 🇺🇸
The foreign policy under the Trump administration was defined by a popular but politically charged rhetoric of disengagement from costly, protracted conflicts, primarily in the Middle East. The promise to bring troops home and “end the forever wars” was a cornerstone of an “America First” agenda, appealing to a domestic audience weary of foreign entanglements.
Analysis of Effects and Motivations
While the intent—to reduce the military and financial burden of overseas operations—was clear, the execution was often abrupt, unilateral, and lacked coordination with allies or local partners. This approach, centered on large-scale troop withdrawals, frequently created immediate power vacuums and signaled a reduction in US commitment to regional stability.
Critical Conclusion: The high-profile US action of “retreat” often produced a strategic instability. By prioritizing the rhetoric of withdrawal over a meticulously managed, diplomatically cushioned exit, the US approach inadvertently created space for adversaries and regional competitors to fill the void, ultimately complicating future diplomatic or military interventions. This transactional, withdrawal-first policy represented a fundamental shift away from decades of sustained liberal internationalism.
The resulting instability, rather than achieving peace, undermined the US’s long-term goal of a secure global order, ceding influence without securing a decisive and stabilising diplomatic end state.
Quiet Power: China’s Pragmatic Regional Diplomacy 🇨🇳
In contrast to the US’s overt strategic withdrawals, China’s recent foreign policy in its immediate periphery has been marked by a strategy of quiet diplomacy and pragmatic, behind-the-scenes mediation. The core motivation is explicitly tied to stability—specifically, securing its borders, ensuring the safety of its massive Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) investments, and projecting influence as a constructive regional power rather than a belligerent one.
By adopting a non-confrontational, economically incentivized approach, China seeks to embed itself as an indispensable arbiter of regional peace, a crucial element of its overall China Peace Diplomacy.
China’s Mediation Drivers
- BRI Security: Instability in neighboring states directly threatens key BRI infrastructure, such as pipelines, railways, and ports, vital for China’s economic future.
- Border Management: Maintaining a peaceful periphery is paramount to securing China’s own internal stability and economic development in border provinces.
- Geopolitical Influence: By successfully brokering de-escalation where the US and other global powers have been absent or ineffective, China subtly builds a reputation as a reliable, results-oriented alternative, strengthening its soft power across Asia.
Case Study 1: The Myanmar Border De-escalation 🏞️
The conflict between the Myanmar military (Tatmadaw) and various ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), particularly the escalation of clashes near the shared border, posed a direct threat to China. Stray artillery fire, like incidents near Yunnan Province, and the influx of tens of thousands of refugees, risked dragging China into a protracted instability.
Instead of a high-profile military intervention or public condemnation, China employed a calculated, multi-pronged approach:
- Pressure and Mediation: Beijing leveraged its unique position as the primary economic partner and arms supplier to both the Myanmar government and, in some cases, certain EAOs. It applied direct diplomatic pressure on all parties to de-escalate, often hosting peace talks on Chinese soil (e.g., in Kunming) to achieve a ceasefire.
- Border Management: At the same time, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) visibly reinforced its border security with air patrols and warnings to the Tatmadaw, demonstrating a resolve to protect its territory and nationals without full-scale intervention.
This Myanmar Border Mediation was highly effective because it was interest-driven and pragmatic. It wasn’t about imposing a democratic or moral order, but about achieving a quick, localized stability essential for the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC).
Case Study 2: Facilitating the Cambodia-Thai Ceasefire 🤝
A less-publicized but equally significant example of China’s “quiet diplomacy” is its role in fostering stability between Cambodia and Thailand following flare-ups in their long-standing border disputes, notably around the Preah Vihear temple.
While ASEAN officially leads the efforts, China has played a constructive and supportive role in facilitating or supporting peace efforts:
- Neutral Diplomatic Support: China engaged in diplomatic outreach to both Bangkok and Phnom Penh, utilizing its deep ties with both nations to urge restraint and encourage a return to bilateral mechanisms.
- Economic Leverage: China is a massive economic partner to both countries. Its tacit support for de-escalation carries significant weight, as neither capital wishes to jeopardize crucial trade, investment, or military cooperation with Beijing.
- Subtle Signaling: China’s provision of military and financial aid to Cambodia, while not a direct tool of the ceasefire itself, subtly signals its influence and ability to shape regional defense dynamics, making compliance with de-escalation a prudent choice for both parties. The result was a restoration of the Cambodia-Thai Ceasefire momentum without China ever taking the central, public stage.
The Geopolitical Contrast: High-Profile vs. High-Effectiveness ⚖️
The comparison between the US rhetoric of “ending wars” through overt troop withdrawals and China’s method of “peace diplomacy” through quiet, interest-aligned mediation is instructive:
| Feature | US Approach (“Ending Wars” Rhetoric) | China’s Approach (China Peace Diplomacy) |
|---|---|---|
| Visibility | High-profile, maximalist, and public | Quiet, behind-the-scenes, and pragmatic |
| Primary Goal | Domestic political appeal; reducing direct cost | Regional stability; safeguarding economic interests (BRI) |
| Mechanism | Military withdrawal; transactional alliances | Diplomatic leverage; economic inducement/pressure |
| Immediate Outcome | Strategic instability; creation of power vacuums | Localized de-escalation; reinforcement of influence |
| Influence Type | Hard power/Military presence (diminishing) | Economic/Political/Soft Power (increasing) |
Critical Conclusion: The US strategy risks achieving only the rhetoric of peace while creating the conditions for future conflict. China’s strategy, by contrast, seeks high-effectiveness stability, not for abstract moral reasons, but for tangible economic and security gains. China’s model of conflict resolution—being a subtle, self-interested, yet seemingly neutral partner—may be more appealing to developing nations wary of the political conditionalities often attached to Western intervention.
Conclusion: Future Global Leadership and US vs China Foreign Policy
The divergent foreign policy paths—the US focused on dramatic withdrawal and the defense of a liberal order, and China focused on quiet, pragmatic stability in its sphere of influence—will shape the future of global leadership.
China’s increasing engagement in regional conflict resolution is a crucial component of its broader strategic narrative, positioning itself as a responsible, development-focused great power. Its success in Myanmar Border Mediation and supporting the Cambodia-Thai Ceasefire demonstrates that global influence is increasingly projected not only through overt military strength but also through the effective, quiet application of economic and diplomatic leverage. For the non-partisan think tank community, the key takeaway is that the new challenge to Western-led stability is not solely military; it is a direct competition in the realm of effective statecraft. As the US struggles to find a consistent global posture, China’s model of Quiet Diplomacy provides a powerful counter-narrative, suggesting that localized, pragmatic peace is a more sustainable, if self-interested, basis for global influence than the costly, high-profile rhetoric of retreat.
Would you like a comparative analysis of their respective strategies in a different region, such as Africa or Latin America?
In an era of shifting global influence, the foreign policy approaches of the world’s two largest powers—the United States (US) and China—present a stark geopolitical contrast. While the US, particularly under the previous administration, pursued a high-profile, rhetorical strategy centered on “ending wars” through large-scale troop withdrawals, China has quietly but effectively intensified its pragmatic regional diplomacy. This difference in style is more than just optics; it reflects fundamentally different calculations for projecting power and securing long-term interests, with China’s less-publicized mediation efforts increasingly challenging the established international order.
The central thesis here is that overt, maximalist actions, like those characterized by the US rhetoric of disengagement, often yield instability, while China’s “quiet diplomacy,” focused on localized conflict resolution, offers a more sustainable, high-effectiveness mechanism for projecting global influence. This article will critically analyze these two divergent paths.
The Rhetoric of Retreat: The US “Ending Wars” Approach 🇺🇸
The foreign policy under the Trump administration was defined by a popular but politically charged rhetoric of disengagement from costly, protracted conflicts, primarily in the Middle East. The promise to bring troops home and “end the forever wars” was a cornerstone of an “America First” agenda, appealing to a domestic audience weary of foreign entanglements.
Analysis of Effects and Motivations
While the intent—to reduce the military and financial burden of overseas operations—was clear, the execution was often abrupt, unilateral, and lacked coordination with allies or local partners. This approach, centered on large-scale troop withdrawals, frequently created immediate power vacuums and signaled a reduction in US commitment to regional stability.
Critical Conclusion: The high-profile US action of “retreat” often produced a strategic instability. By prioritizing the rhetoric of withdrawal over a meticulously managed, diplomatically cushioned exit, the US approach inadvertently created space for adversaries and regional competitors to fill the void, ultimately complicating future diplomatic or military interventions. This transactional, withdrawal-first policy represented a fundamental shift away from decades of sustained liberal internationalism.
The resulting instability, rather than peace, undermined the US’s long-term goal of a secure global order, ceding influence without achieving a decisive, stabilizing diplomatic end state.
Quiet Power: China’s Pragmatic Regional Diplomacy 🇨🇳
In contrast to the US’s overt strategic withdrawals, China’s recent foreign policy in its immediate periphery has been marked by a strategy of quiet diplomacy and pragmatic, behind-the-scenes mediation. The core motivation is explicitly tied to stability—specifically, securing its borders, ensuring the safety of its massive Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) investments, and projecting influence as a constructive regional power rather than a belligerent one.
By adopting a non-confrontational, economically incentivised approach, China seeks to embed itself as an indispensable arbiter of regional peace, a crucial element of its overall China Peace Diplomacy.
China’s Mediation Drivers
- BRI Security: Instability in neighboring states directly threatens key BRI infrastructure, such as pipelines, railways, and ports, vital for China’s economic future.
- Border Management: Maintaining a peaceful periphery is paramount to securing China’s own internal stability and economic development in border provinces.
- Geopolitical Influence: By successfully brokering de-escalation where the US and other global powers have been absent or ineffective, China subtly builds a reputation as a reliable, results-oriented alternative, strengthening its soft power across Asia.
Case Study 1: The Myanmar Border De-escalation 🏞️
The conflict between the Myanmar military (Tatmadaw) and various ethnic armed organisations (EAOs), particularly the escalation of clashes near the shared border, posed a direct threat to China. Stray artillery fire, like incidents near Yunnan Province, and the influx of tens of thousands of refugees, risked dragging China into a protracted instability.
Instead of a high-profile military intervention or public condemnation, China employed a calculated, multi-pronged approach:
- Pressure and Mediation: Beijing leveraged its unique position as the primary economic partner and arms supplier to both the Myanmar government and, in some cases, certain EAOs. It applied direct diplomatic pressure on all parties to de-escalate, often hosting peace talks on Chinese soil (e.g., in Kunming) to achieve a ceasefire.
- Border Management: At the same time, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) visibly reinforced its border security with air patrols and warnings to the Tatmadaw, demonstrating a resolve to protect its territory and nationals without full-scale intervention.
This Myanmar Border Mediation was highly effective because it was interest-driven and pragmatic. It wasn’t about imposing a democratic or moral order, but about achieving a quick, localized stability essential for the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC).
Case Study 2: Facilitating the Cambodia-Thai Ceasefire 🤝
A less-publicized but equally significant example of China’s “quiet diplomacy” is its role in fostering stability between Cambodia and Thailand following flare-ups in their long-standing border disputes, notably around the Preah Vihear temple.
While ASEAN officially leads the efforts, China has played a constructive and supportive role in facilitating or supporting peace efforts:
- Neutral Diplomatic Support: China engaged in diplomatic outreach to both Bangkok and Phnom Penh, utilizing its deep ties with both nations to urge restraint and encourage a return to bilateral mechanisms.
- Economic Leverage: China is a massive economic partner to both countries. Its tacit support for de-escalation carries significant weight, as neither capital wishes to jeopardize crucial trade, investment, or military cooperation with Beijing.
- Subtle Signaling: China’s provision of military and financial aid to Cambodia, while not a direct tool of the ceasefire itself, subtly signals its influence and ability to shape regional defense dynamics, making compliance with de-escalation a prudent choice for both parties. The result was a restoration of the Cambodia-Thai Ceasefire momentum without China ever taking the central, public stage.
The Geopolitical Contrast: High-Profile vs. High-Effectiveness ⚖️
The comparison between the US rhetoric of “ending wars” through overt troop withdrawals and China’s method of “peace diplomacy” through quiet, interest-aligned mediation is instructive:
| Feature | US Approach (“Ending Wars” Rhetoric) | China’s Approach (China Peace Diplomacy) |
|---|---|---|
| Visibility | High-profile, maximalist, and public | Quiet, behind-the-scenes, and pragmatic |
| Primary Goal | Domestic political appeal; reducing direct cost | Regional stability; safeguarding economic interests (BRI) |
| Mechanism | Military withdrawal; transactional alliances | Diplomatic leverage; economic inducement/pressure |
| Immediate Outcome | Strategic instability; creation of power vacuums | Localized de-escalation; reinforcement of influence |
| Influence Type | Hard power/Military presence (diminishing) | Economic/Political/Soft Power (increasing) |
Critical Conclusion: The US strategy risks achieving only the rhetoric of peace while creating the conditions for future conflict. China’s strategy, by contrast, seeks high-effectiveness stability, not for abstract moral reasons, but for tangible economic and security gains. China’s model of conflict resolution—being a subtle, self-interested, yet seemingly neutral partner—may be more appealing to developing nations wary of the political conditionalities often attached to Western intervention.
Conclusion: Future Global Leadership and US vs China Foreign Policy
The divergent foreign policy paths—the US focused on dramatic withdrawal and the defense of a liberal order, and China focused on quiet, pragmatic stability in its sphere of influence—will shape the future of global leadership.
China’s increasing engagement in regional conflict resolution is a crucial component of its broader strategic narrative, positioning itself as a responsible, development-focused great power. Its success in Myanmar Border Mediation and supporting the Cambodia-Thai Ceasefire demonstrates that global influence is increasingly projected not only through overt military strength but also through the effective, quiet application of economic and diplomatic leverage. For the non-partisan think tank community, the key takeaway is that the new challenge to Western-led stability is not solely military; it is a direct competition in the realm of effective statecraft. As the US struggles to find a consistent global posture, China’s model of Quiet Diplomacy provides a powerful counter-narrative, suggesting that localized, pragmatic peace is a more sustainable, if self-interested, basis for global influence than the costly, high-profile rhetoric of retreat.
China
The Battle Over TikTok: Can the Company Fight Back?
The battle over TikTok has raged for months as the United States government has grown increasingly concerned about the potential security risks posed by the popular social media app’s Chinese ownership. In August 2020, President Trump signed an executive order that would have banned TikTok in the US unless its ownership was transferred to an American company. A federal judge later blocked the order, but the threat of a ban has loomed over the app ever since.

Recently, the US Congress took a first step towards forcing TikTok’s Chinese owner, ByteDance, to sell the app. The move came in the form of the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act, which was signed into law in December 2020. The law requires foreign companies listed on US stock exchanges to comply with US auditing regulations or face delisting. ByteDance is currently in the process of exploring options to comply with the law, including a possible sale of TikTok to a US buyer.
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Key Takeaways
- The US government has been concerned about the security risks posed by TikTok’s Chinese ownership, and the threat of a ban has loomed over the app for months.
- The Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act requires foreign companies listed on US stock exchanges to comply with US auditing regulations or face delisting, which could force ByteDance to sell TikTok to a US buyer.
- The battle over TikTok highlights the economic and political stakes of technology ownership and raises important questions about legislative actions and corporate responses to national security concerns.
Legislative Actions

The battle over TikTok has led to a series of legislative actions by the US Congress. In August 2020, Congress took the first step towards forcing the app’s Chinese owner, ByteDance, to divest TikTok’s US operations to a US-based company. This was in response to concerns over national security and the potential for user data to be accessed by the Chinese government.
Congressional Steps Toward Divestment
The divestment order was issued by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), a government agency responsible for reviewing foreign investment in US companies. This order required ByteDance to sell TikTok’s US operations within 90 days, or face a ban on the app in the US.
In response, ByteDance filed a lawsuit challenging the divestment order, arguing that it was not given due process and that the order was politically motivated. However, the lawsuit was dismissed by a federal judge in December 2020.
Legal Implications
The battle over TikTok has raised important legal questions about the relationship between national security and foreign investment in the US. The divestment order issued by CFIUS was based on concerns over national security, but it is unclear whether such concerns can be used to justify forcing a foreign company to sell its US operations.
Moreover, the battle over TikTok has highlighted the challenges of regulating social media platforms that are owned by foreign companies. TikTok’s Chinese ownership has raised concerns over the potential for user data to be accessed by the Chinese government, leading to calls for greater regulation of social media platforms.
Overall, the battle over TikTok has demonstrated the complex legal and regulatory challenges posed by foreign investment in the US, particularly in the technology sector. While Congress has taken steps towards divesting TikTok’s US operations, the legal implications of such actions remain unclear.
Corporate Response

Company’s Defense Strategy
TikTok’s Chinese owner, ByteDance, has vowed to fight back against the US Congress’s decision to force it to sell off the app’s US operations. The company is reportedly considering several options to defend itself, including legal action, lobbying efforts, and potential partnerships with US companies.
ByteDance has argued that the move by Congress is politically motivated and violates the company’s rights. The company has also emphasized that TikTok’s US user data is stored in the US and is not subject to Chinese government control.
To bolster its defence, ByteDance has hired a team of high-profile lawyers, including former US Solicitor General Theodore Olson. The company is also reportedly exploring potential partnerships with US companies, such as Microsoft, to help address concerns about data security.
Public Relations Efforts
In addition to its legal and lobbying efforts, ByteDance has launched a public relations campaign to defend the app and its Chinese ownership. The company has emphasized TikTok’s popularity and cultural impact, highlighting its role in promoting diversity and creativity.
ByteDance has also sought to distance itself from the Chinese government, emphasizing that it operates independently and is not subject to Chinese censorship laws. The company has also emphasized its commitment to data privacy and security, noting that it stores user data in the US and other countries outside of China.
Despite these efforts, ByteDance faces an uphill battle to defend TikTok’s US operations. The company will need to address concerns about data security and potential Chinese government influence, while also convincing US lawmakers and regulators that it can operate independently and in the best interests of US users.
Economic and Political Stakes

The battle over TikTok has major economic and political implications for both the United States and China. With more than 91 million users in the US alone, TikTok has become a significant player in the social media landscape, and its popularity has made it a target of concern for US lawmakers. The recent moves by the US Congress to force the app’s Chinese owner to sell it off have raised questions about the future of the app and its impact on US-China relations.
Impact on US-China Relations
The battle over TikTok has the potential to further strain already tense relations between the US and China. The Trump administration has been vocal in its criticism of China, and the move to force the sale of TikTok is just the latest in a series of actions taken against Chinese companies. The Chinese government has responded with its own set of measures, including new restrictions on US tech companies operating in China.
The ongoing battle over TikTok has also highlighted concerns about data privacy and security. US lawmakers have raised concerns about the app’s data collection practices and the potential for the Chinese government to access user data. China has denied any wrongdoing and has accused the US of using national security concerns as a pretext for protectionism.
Consequences for Global Markets
The battle over TikTok has wider implications for global markets. The app’s popularity has made it a significant player in the social media landscape, and its forced sale could have ripple effects on the tech industry as a whole. The move could also have implications for other Chinese companies operating in the US, and could lead to a wider crackdown on Chinese investment in the US.
The battle over TikTok is likely to continue for some time, and the outcome is far from certain. However, the economic and political stakes are high, and the impact of the battle could be felt for years to come.
Frequently Asked Questions

What is the rationale behind the US Congress’s move to force a sale of TikTok?
The US Congress has expressed concerns about the potential national security risks posed by TikTok’s ownership by Chinese company ByteDance. Lawmakers have cited fears that TikTok’s data collection practices may be used by the Chinese government to gather sensitive information on US citizens. The move to force a sale of TikTok is seen as a way to mitigate these risks.
What is the status of the legislation aimed at banning TikTok?
As of the current date, no legislation has been passed to ban TikTok in the US. However, the US Department of Commerce has taken steps to restrict the app’s use in the country. In September 2020, the Department announced that it would ban TikTok from US app stores, though this decision was later temporarily blocked by a federal judge.
How might TikTok’s ownership respond to the US legislative actions?
TikTok’s ownership has previously pushed back against US legislative actions aimed at restricting the app’s use. The company has argued that it operates independently of the Chinese government and has taken steps to distance itself from its Chinese roots, including hiring US-based executives and establishing a US-based subsidiary. However, it remains to be seen how the company will respond to the latest legislative actions aimed at forcing a sale of the app.
What are the potential consequences for users if TikTok is banned in the US?
If TikTok is banned in the US, users may lose access to the app’s social media features, including the ability to create and share short-form videos. However, it is worth noting that TikTok’s popularity has led to the emergence of several alternative social media apps that offer similar features, such as Instagram’s Reels and Byte, which was created by the co-founder of Vine.
Has any legislation been passed to date regarding the prohibition of TikTok?
As of the current date, no legislation has been passed to prohibit the use of TikTok in the US. However, the US government has taken steps to restrict the app’s use, including the aforementioned ban on TikTok in US app stores.
Which other countries have taken steps to ban or restrict TikTok?
Several other countries, including India and Pakistan, have taken steps to ban or restrict TikTok over concerns about national security and user privacy. In India, TikTok was banned in June 2020, along with several other Chinese-owned apps. In Pakistan, the government has announced plans to ban TikTok unless the app takes steps to address concerns about “obscenity and immorality.”
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