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Analysis

How Russia’s sanction-proofing failed

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“How could our government have been so stupid?” one Russian acquaintance of mine wondered, after the West imposed sweeping sanctions that froze around $300 billion of the Russian government’s foreign exchange reserves held in Western banks.

Over the past few weeks, the US, EU, UK, Japan, and other allies have hit Russia with a package of restrictions targeting its access to foreign financing and technology. Russia’s currency has plummeted, inflation is rising, living standards are slumping, and many factories across the country have stopped work due to shortages in components. Russia now faces the deepest economic crisis since post-Soviet collapse in the Nineties — a downturn so severe that it may eventually threaten Vladimir Putin’s hold on power.

Only one month ago, analysts were focused not on Russia’s vulnerability to sanctions but its supposed “sanctions-proofing” strength. The Russian government has dealt with Western sanctions for decades, from the technological restrictions the West imposed on the USSR to the most recent restrictions on oil drilling technology and access to capital markets imposed after Russia’s first attack on Ukraine in 2014. However, the strength of the latest came as a surprise to Russia’s leaders. They thought they had taken adequate steps to defend their economy and that Western leaders would be too worried about domestic prosperity to risk tough measures. Neither assumption proved correct — and now Russia is paying the price.

Like many adversaries of the United States, from North Korea to Iran to Venezuela, Russia sees American sanctions as a fact of life. Almost every year over the past decade, the US has slapped on a new set of sanctions, sometimes unilaterally, sometimes in conjunction with allies in Europe. Some have been linked to domestic human rights violations, such as those implemented under the Magnitsky Act, named after a Russian lawyer who died under suspicious conditions in jail after uncovering a government-linked fraud. Some have been sparked by Russian meddling in American elections. Others were motivated by Russia’s use of a nerve agent in an attempted assassination in the UK. As Putin said just before announcing his decision to attack Ukraine: “They will never think twice before coming up with or just fabricating a pretext for yet another sanction attack … their one and only goal is to hold back the development of Russia.”

From the moment Putin announced that Russia was beginning a “special military operation” to “denazify” Ukraine, more sanctions were inevitable. The Biden administration had threatened “devastating” sanctions, though after endured many rounds of not-very-tough Western sanctions, most Russian leaders thought America was bluffing. The fact that European leaders were divided about sanctions — and that Germany, Europe’s most important player, was putting the finishing touches on a new Russian gas pipeline — led the Russians to believe that the West wasn’t ready for full-scale economic warfare. The Kremlin, therefore, began the war expecting measures that were costly but survivable. In a public meeting right before the invasion, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin briefed Putin that “we have thoroughly reviewed these risks” and that “we have been preparing for months”.

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In fact, Russia had been preparing for years, knowing that sanctions were always a risk. America’s sanctions campaign against Iran, which cut off its ability to export oil, was a worrisome precedent — though Russia was a far more important oil producer than the Islamic Republic. The 2014 sanctions against Russia, meanwhile, showed that when the US, UK, and EU joined forces, they could sever Russian firms from financial markets in ways that no other country — not even China — could equal.

In response, Russia developed a five-pronged strategy to steel its economy. The first step was to build up a substantial war chest of foreign exchange reserves, including major currencies (Euro, sterling, dollar, yen, and renminbi) and over $100 billion worth of gold. These reserves, equivalent to over twice the value of goods Russia imports in a typical year, were supposed to give Russia financial flexibility in case the West tried imposing restrictions on its ability to export goods and earn foreign currency abroad.

The second prong in Russia’s “sanctions-proofing” strategy was to reduce its use of the US dollar, the currency in which most commodities — and thus most of Russia’s exports — are priced. Russia managed to substantially reduce the scope of dollars in its foreign trade, largely by shifting its trade with China to Euros. The Kremlin also cut dollar holdings in its foreign currency reserves, choosing to hold more of other currencies, including renminbi, instead.

Third, Russia tried developing internal payments systems in case it was severed from Western-dominated platforms. Many purchases in Russia are made using Visa or Mastercard, which are subject to US sanctions legislation. Most international banking transactions are mediated by SWIFT, a Belgium-based organisation subject to EU sanctions. Russia has rolled out a domestic card payment system, called Mir, and an interbank payment system modeled on SWIFT, trying to prepare itself for a potential future without access to these Western platforms.

The fourth strategy was to intensify economic cooperation with China. The more China’s economy grew, and the more ties that Russia had with it, the more Russian leaders felt secure. The Kremlin knew it could rely on China to vociferously object to any Western sanctions that were applied extraterritorially to Chinese firms.

Finally, Russia counted on the West’s energy dependence to limit any willingness to apply economic pressure. The fact that the Germans were afraid of even mentioning the Nord Stream II pipeline demonstrated timidity that emboldened the Kremlin. However, though Germans were uniquely supine in their energy relations with Russia, they weren’t alone in their dependence. America liked to condemn Germany over Nord Stream II, but American politicians were and are highly sensitive to gasoline prices. Restrictions on Russian oil exports were, therefore, guaranteed to be a matter of acute domestic political concern, because such a move would drive up gasoline prices worldwide. The Kremlin assumed this was a price Western leaders would be unwilling to pay.

When Russian forces rolled into Ukraine, however, the West was jolted out of complacency. Though US and UK intelligence had been warning for several months that Russia was ready to invade, most people — and most Western European leaders — simply didn’t believe it. Images of Ukrainian cities aflame left them shocked. So it was Europe that led the drive during the first week of war for tougher economic sanctions, culminating in an almost unprecedented freeze on Russia’s central bank reserves.

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This was a level of sanctions escalation that Russian policymakers had never seriously contemplated. On its own, the move — grabbing control of around $300 billion worth of Russian foreign exchange reserves stashed in Western financial institutions — constituted the biggest bank heist in world history. The fact that these moves were multilateral meant that “de-dollarising” didn’t matter. The Euro, pound, and yen were no more accessible to the Kremlin. And it didn’t matter what payments system was used, Russian or otherwise, if a substantial chunk of the world economy simply refused to transact with you.

The Chinese — supposed allies in “sanctions-proofing” — were no less shocked than the Russians by this display of financial firepower. China has already announced that it is cutting off certain Russian industries under special sanctions, such as aviation. China’s banks, meanwhile, continue to undertake some non-sanctioned transactions with Russia, but according to reports they are broadly following the West’s lead. The Moscow–Beijing entente is more a marriage of convenience than a sanctions-busting partnership.

The only part of Russia’s sanctions-proofing plan that is proving somewhat effective is the bet that Western leaders can’t stomach a full energy cut off. The US and UK have announced bans on importing Russian energy, but this only has a minor impact. The EU has announced plans to cut Russian energy imports to zero — but only after several years. The move that would really hit Russia would be to block all its energy exports, via an Iran-style regime that severed its ability to sell to third parties such as India and China. This would dramatically escalate pressure on Russia. It would also push oil prices far higher.

For now, therefore, energy remains the one major loophole in the sanctions regime. Nevertheless, the Russian state faces a deep economic crisis. The ruble has slumped and prices are rising. Unemployment is set to spike as factory closures cause industrial bankruptcies. Living standards will fall far behind inflation, which will accelerate over the coming months. Foreign companies of all types, from BP to McDonald’s, are fleeing.

“I understand that rising prices are seriously hitting people’s incomes,” Putin admitted in a speech on Wednesday. What he didn’t say is that he has neither a plan nor any resources, to deal with this. On the battlefields of Ukraine, Russian forces have demonstrated incompetent organization and a horrible command of logistics. Despite much talk of “sanctions-proofing”, the Kremlin’s efforts to protect itself from economic warfare have been just as inept — and, for Russia, disastrous.

Via UH


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Analysis

The Kashmir Conflict and the Reality of Crimes Against Humanity

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Crimes against humanity represent one of the most serious affronts to human dignity and collective conscience. They embody patterns of widespread or systematic violence directed against civilian populations — including murder, enforced disappearances, torture, persecution, sexual violence, deportation, and other inhumane acts that shock the moral order of humanity. The United Nations Conference of Plenipotentiaries on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime against Humanity presents a historic opportunity to strengthen global resolve, reinforce legal frameworks, and advance cooperation among states to ensure accountability, justice, and meaningful prevention.

While the international legal architecture has evolved significantly since the aftermath of the Second World War, important normative and institutional gaps remain. The Genocide Convention of 1948 and the Geneva Conventions established foundational legal protections, and the creation of the International Criminal Court reinforced accountability mechanisms. Yet, unlike genocide and war crimes, there is still no stand-alone comprehensive convention dedicated exclusively to crimes against humanity. This structural omission has limited the capacity of states to adopt consistent domestic legislation, harmonize cooperation frameworks, and pursue perpetrators who move across borders. The Conference of Plenipotentiaries seeks to fill this critical void.

The Imperative of Prevention

Prevention must stand at the core of the international community’s approach. Too often, the world reacts to atrocities only after irreparable harm has been inflicted and communities have been devastated. A meaningful prevention framework requires early warning mechanisms, stronger monitoring capacities, transparent reporting, and a willingness by states and institutions to act before crises escalate. Education in human rights, inclusive governance, rule of law strengthening, and responsible security practices are equally essential elements of prevention.

Civil society organizations, academic institutions, moral leaders, and human rights defenders play a vital role in documenting abuses, amplifying the voices of victims, and urging action when warning signs emerge. Their protection and meaningful participation must therefore be an integral component of any preventive strategy. Without civic space, truth is silenced — and without truth, accountability becomes impossible.

Accountability and the Rule of Law

Accountability is not an act of punishment alone; it is an affirmation of universal human values. When perpetrators enjoy impunity, cycles of violence deepen, victims are re-traumatized, and the integrity of international law erodes. Strengthening judicial cooperation — including extradition, mutual legal assistance, and evidence-sharing — is essential to closing enforcement gaps. Equally important is the responsibility of states to incorporate crimes against humanity into domestic criminal law, ensuring that such crimes can be prosecuted fairly and independently at the national level.

Justice must also be survivor centered. Victims and affected communities deserve recognition, reparations, psychological support, and the assurance that their suffering has not been ignored. Truth-seeking mechanisms and memorialization efforts help restore dignity and foster long-term reconciliation.

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The Role of Multilateralism

The Conference reinforces the indispensable role of multilateralism in confronting global challenges. Atrocities rarely occur in isolation; they are rooted in political exclusion, discrimination, securitization of societies, and structural inequalities. No state, however powerful, can confront these dynamics alone. Shared norms, coordinated diplomatic engagement, and principled international cooperation are vital to preventing abuses and responding when they occur.

Multilateral commitments must also be matched with political will. Declarations are meaningful only when accompanied by implementation, transparency, and accountability to both domestic and international publics.

Technology, Media, and Modern Challenges

Contemporary conflicts and crises unfold in an increasingly digital and interconnected world. Technology can illuminate truth — enabling documentation, verification, and preservation of evidence — but it can also be weaponized to spread hate, dehumanization, and incitement. Strengthening responsible digital governance, countering disinformation, and supporting credible documentation initiatives are essential tools for both prevention and accountability. Journalists, researchers, and human rights monitors must be protected from reprisals for their work.

Climate-related stress, demographic shifts, and political polarization further complicate the landscape in which vulnerabilities emerge. The Conference should therefore promote a holistic understanding of risk factors that may precipitate widespread or systematic violence.

A Universal Commitment — With Local Realities

While the principles guiding this Convention are universal, their application must be sensitive to local histories, languages, cultures, and institutional realities. Effective implementation depends on national ownership, capacity-building, judicial training, and inclusive policymaking that engages women, youth, minorities, and marginalized communities. The pursuit of justice must never be perceived as externally imposed, but rather as an expression of shared human values anchored within domestic legal systems.

The Kashmir Conflict and the Reality of Crimes Against Humanity

Crimes against humanity do not emerge overnight. They develop through sustained patterns of abuse, erosion of legal safeguards, and the normalization of repression. Jammu and Kashmir presents a contemporary case study of these dynamics.

Under international law, crimes against humanity encompass widespread or systematic attacks directed against a civilian population, including imprisonment, torture, persecution, enforced disappearance, and other inhumane acts. Evidence emerging from Kashmir—documented by UN experts, international NGOs, journalists, and scholars—demonstrates patterns that meet these legal criteria.

The invocation of “national security” has become the central mechanism through which extraordinary powers are exercised without effective judicial oversight. Draconian laws are routinely used to silence dissent, detain human rights defenders, restrict movement, and suppress independent media. This securitized governance has produced what many Kashmiris describe as the “peace of the graveyard”—an imposed silence rather than genuine peace.

Early-warning frameworks for mass atrocities are particularly instructive. Gregory Stanton identifies Kashmir as exhibiting multiple risk indicators, including classification and discrimination, denial of civil rights, militarization, and impunity. These indicators, if left unaddressed, historically precede mass atrocity crimes.

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The systematic silencing of journalists, as warned by the Committee to Protect Journalists, and the targeting of academics and diaspora voices—such as the denial of entry to Dr. Nitasha Kaul and the cancellation of travel documents of elderly activists like Amrit Wilson—demonstrate repression extending beyond borders.

The joint statement by ten UN Special Rapporteurs (2025) regarding one of internationally known human rights defender – Khurram Parvez – underscores that these are not isolated incidents but part of a broader pattern involving arbitrary detention, torture, discriminatory treatment, and custodial deaths. Together, these acts form a systematic attack on a civilian population, triggering the international community’s responsibility to act.

This Conference offers a critical opportunity to reaffirm that sovereignty cannot be a shield for crimes against humanity. Kashmir illustrates the urgent need for:

  • Preventive diplomacy grounded in early warning mechanisms.
  • Independent investigations and universal jurisdiction where applicable.
  • Stronger protections for journalists, scholars, and human rights defenders, including Irfan Mehraj, Abdul Aaala Fazili, Hilal Mir, Asif Sultan and others.
  • Victim-centered justice and accountability frameworks for Mohammad Yasin Malik, Shabir Ahmed Shah, Masarat Aalam, Aasia Andrabi, Fehmeeda Sofi, Nahida Nasreen and others.
  •  

Recognizing Kashmir within the crimes-against-humanity discourse is not political—it is legal, moral, and preventive. Failure to act risks entrenching impunity and undermining the very purpose of international criminal law.

Conclusion

The United Nations Conference of Plenipotentiaries carries profound moral, legal, and historical significance. It represents not only a technical exercise in treaty development but a reaffirmation of humanity’s collective promise — that no people, anywhere, should face systematic cruelty without recourse to justice and protection. By advancing a comprehensive Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime against Humanity, the international community strengthens its resolve to stand with victims, confront impunity, and uphold the sanctity of human dignity.

The success of this effort will ultimately depend on our willingness to transform commitments into action, principles into practice, and aspiration into enduring protection for present and future generations.

Dr. Fai submitted this paper to the Organizers of the Preparatory Committee for the United Nations Conference of Plenipotentiaries on Prevention and Punishment of Crimes against Humanity on behalf of PCSWHR which is headed by Dr. Ijaz Noori, an internationally known interfaith expert. The conference took place at the UN headquarters between January 19 – 30, 2026.


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Analysis

What Is Nipah Virus? Symptoms, Risks, and Transmission Explained as India Faces New Outbreak Alert

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KOLKATA, West Bengal—In the intensive care unit of a Kolkata hospital, shielded behind layers of protective glass, a team of healthcare workers moves with a calibrated urgency. Their patient, a man in his forties, is battling an adversary they cannot see and for which they have no specific cure. He is one of at least five confirmed cases in a new Nipah virus outbreak in West Bengal, a stark reminder that the shadow of zoonotic pandemics is long, persistent, and profoundly personal. Among the cases are two frontline workers, a testament to the virus’s stealthy human-to-human transmission. Nearly 100 contacts now wait in monitored quarantine, their lives paused as public health officials race to contain a pathogen with a terrifying fatality rate of 40 to 75 percent.

This scene in India is not from a dystopian novel; it is the latest chapter in a two-decade struggle against a virus that emerges from forests, carried by fruit bats, to sporadically ignite human suffering. As of January 27, 2026, containment efforts are underway, but the alert status remains high. There is no Nipah virus vaccine, no licensed antiviral. Survival hinges on supportive care, epidemiological grit, and the hard-learned lessons from past outbreaks in Kerala and Bangladesh.

For a global audience weary of pandemic headlines, the name “Nipah” may elicit a flicker of recognition. But what is Nipah virus, and why does its appearance cause such profound concern among virologists and public health agencies worldwide? Beyond the immediate crisis in West Bengal, this outbreak illuminates the fragile interplay between a changing environment, animal reservoirs, and human health—a dynamic fueling the age of emerging infectious diseases.

Understanding the Nipah Virus: A Zoonotic Origin Story

Nipah virus (NiV) is not a newcomer. It is a paramyxovirus, in the same family as measles and mumps, but with a deadlier disposition. It was first identified in 1999 during an outbreak among pig farmers in Sungai Nipah, Malaysia. The transmission chain was traced back to fruit bats of the Pteropus genus—the virus’s natural reservoir—who dropped partially eaten fruit into pig pens. The pigs became amplifying hosts, and from them, the virus jumped to humans.

The South Asian strain, however, revealed a more direct and dangerous pathway. In annual outbreaks in Bangladesh and parts of India, humans contract the virus primarily through consuming raw date palm sap contaminated by bat urine or saliva. From there, it gains the ability for efficient human-to-human transmission through close contact with respiratory droplets or bodily fluids, often in家庭or hospital settings. This capacity for person-to-person spread places it in a category of concern distinct from many other zoonoses.

“Nipah sits at a dangerous intersection,” explains a virologist with the World Health Organization’s (WHO) Emerging Diseases unit. “It has a high mutation rate, a high fatality rate, and proven ability to spread between people. While its outbreaks have so far been sporadic and localized, each event is an opportunity for the virus to better adapt to human hosts.” The WHO lists Nipah as a priority pathogen for research and development, alongside Ebola and SARS-CoV-2.

Key Symptoms and Progression: From Fever to Encephalitis

The symptoms of Nipah virus infection can be deceptively nonspecific at first, often leading to critical delays in diagnosis and isolation. The incubation period ranges from 4 to 14 days. The illness typically progresses in two phases:

  • Initial Phase: Patients present with flu-like symptoms including:
    • High fever
    • Severe headache
    • Muscle pain (myalgia)
    • Vomiting and sore throat
  • Neurological Phase: Within 24-48 hours, the infection can progress to acute encephalitis (brain inflammation). Signs of this dangerous progression include:
    • Dizziness, drowsiness, and altered consciousness.
    • Acute confusion or disorientation.
    • Seizures.
    • Atypical pneumonia and severe respiratory distress.
    • In severe cases, coma within 48 hours.
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According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the case fatality rate is estimated at 40% to 75%, a staggering figure that varies by outbreak and local healthcare capacity. Survivors of severe encephalitis are often left with long-term neurological conditions, such as seizure disorders and personality changes.

Transmission Routes and Risk Factors

Understanding Nipah virus transmission is key to breaking its chain. The routes are specific but expose critical vulnerabilities in our food systems and healthcare protocols.

  1. Zoonotic (Animal-to-Human): The primary route. The consumption of raw date palm sap or fruit contaminated by infected bats is the major risk factor in Bangladesh and India. Direct contact with infected bats or their excrement is also a risk. Interestingly, while pigs were the intermediate host in Malaysia, they have not played a role in South Asian outbreaks.
  2. Human-to-Human: This is the driver of hospital-based and家庭clusters. The virus spreads through:
    • Direct contact with respiratory droplets (coughing, sneezing) from an infected person.
    • Contact with bodily fluids (saliva, urine, blood) of an infected person.
    • Contact with contaminated surfaces in clinical or care settings.

This mode of transmission makes healthcare workers exceptionally vulnerable, as seen in the current West Bengal cases and the devastating 2018 Kerala outbreak, where a nurse lost her life after treating an index patient. The lack of early, specific symptoms means Nipah can enter a hospital disguised as a common fever.

The Current Outbreak in West Bengal: Containment Under Pressure

The Nipah virus India 2026 outbreak is centered in West Bengal, with confirmed cases receiving treatment in Kolkata-area hospitals. As reported by NDTV, state health authorities have confirmed at least five cases, including healthcare workers, with one patient in critical condition. The swift response includes:

  • The quarantine and daily monitoring of nearly 100 high-risk contacts.
  • Isolation wards established in designated hospitals.
  • Enhanced surveillance in the affected districts.
  • Public advisories against consuming raw date palm sap.

This outbreak echoes, but is geographically distinct from, the several deadly encounters Kerala has had with the virus, most notably in 2018 and 2023. Each outbreak tests India’s increasingly robust—yet uneven—infectious disease response infrastructure. The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) and the National Institute of Virology (NIV) have deployed teams and are supporting rapid testing, which is crucial for containment.

Airports in the region, recalling measures from previous health crises, have reportedly instituted thermal screening for passengers from affected areas, a move aimed more at public reassurance than efficacy, given Nipah’s incubation period.

Why the Fatality Rate Is So High: A Perfect Storm of Factors

The alarming Nipah virus fatality rate is a product of biological, clinical, and systemic factors:

  • Neurotropism: The virus has a strong affinity for neural tissue, leading to rapid and often irreversible brain inflammation.
  • Lack of Specific Treatment: There is no vaccine for Nipah virus and no licensed antiviral therapy. Treatment is purely supportive: managing fever, ensuring hydration, treating seizures, and, in severe cases, mechanical ventilation. Monoclonal antibodies are under development and have been used compassionately in past outbreaks, but they are not widely available.
  • Diagnostic Delays: Early symptoms mimic common illnesses. Without rapid, point-of-care diagnostics, critical isolation and care protocols are delayed, increasing the opportunity for spread and disease progression.
  • Healthcare-Associated Transmission: Outbreaks can overwhelm infection prevention controls in hospitals, turning healthcare facilities into amplification points, which increases the overall case count and mortality.
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Global Implications and Preparedness

While the current Nipah virus outbreak is a local crisis, its implications are global. In an interconnected world, no outbreak is truly isolated. The World Health Organization stresses that Nipah epidemics can cause severe disease and death in humans, posing a significant public health concern.

Furthermore, Nipah is a paradigm for a larger threat. Habitat loss and climate change are bringing wildlife and humans into more frequent contact. The Pteropus bat’s range is vast, spanning from the Gulf through the Indian subcontinent to Southeast Asia and Australia. Urbanization and agricultural expansion increase the odds of spillover events.

“The story of Nipah is the story of our time,” notes a global health security analyst in a piece for SCMP. “It’s a virus that exists in nature, held in check by ecological balance. When we disrupt that balance through deforestation, intensive farming, or climate stress, we roll the dice on spillover. West Bengal today could be somewhere else tomorrow.”

International preparedness is patchy. High-income countries have sophisticated biosecurity labs but may lack experience with the virus. Countries in the endemic region have hard-earned field experience but often lack resources. Bridging this gap through data sharing, capacity building, and joint research is essential.

Prevention and Future Outlook

Until a Nipah virus vaccine becomes a reality, prevention hinges on public awareness, robust surveillance, and classical public health measures:

  • Community Education: In endemic areas, public campaigns must clearly communicate the dangers of consuming raw date palm sap and advise covering sap collection pots to prevent bat access.
  • Enhanced Surveillance: Implementing a “One Health” approach that integrates human, animal, and environmental health monitoring to detect spillover events early.
  • Hospital Readiness: Ensuring healthcare facilities in at-risk regions have protocols for rapid identification, isolation, and infection control, and that workers have adequate personal protective equipment (PPE).
  • Accelerating Research: The pandemic has shown the world the value of platform technologies for vaccines. Several Nipah virus vaccine candidates are in various trial stages, supported by initiatives like the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI). Similarly, research into antiviral treatments like remdesivir and monoclonal antibodies must be prioritized.

The future outlook is one of cautious vigilance. Eradicating Nipah is impossible—its reservoir is wild, winged, and widespread. The goal is effective management: early detection, swift containment, and reducing the case fatality rate through better care and, eventually, medical countermeasures.

Conclusion: A Test of Vigilance and Cooperation

The patients in Kolkata’s isolation wards are more than statistics; they are a poignant call to action. The Nipah virus India outbreak in West Bengal is a flare in the night, illuminating the persistent vulnerabilities in our global health defenses. It reminds us that while COVID-19 may have redefined our scale of concern, it did not invent the underlying risks.

Nipah’s high fatality rate and capacity for human-to-human transmission demand respect, but not panic. The response in West Bengal demonstrates that with swift action, contact tracing, and community engagement, chains of transmission can be broken, even without a magic bullet cure.

Ultimately, the narrative of Nipah is not solely one of threat, but of trajectory. It shows where we have been—reactive, often scrambling. And it points to where we must go: toward a proactive, collaborative, and equitable system of pandemic preparedness. This means investing in research for neglected pathogens, strengthening health systems at the grassroots, and respecting the delicate ecological balances that, when disturbed, send silent passengers from the forest into our midst. The goal is not just to contain the outbreak of today, but to build a world resilient to the viruses of tomorrow.


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Analysis

Systematic Inhumane Persecution in Jammu & Kashmir

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This written communication draws the attention of the United Nations and its human rights mechanisms to persistent and grave violations in Jammu and Kashmir, which cumulatively raise serious concerns under international human rights law and international criminal law, including the threshold of crimes against humanity.

For decades, the civilian population of Jammu and Kashmir has lived under one of the world’s most militarized environments. Since August 2019 in particular, restrictions on civil liberties have intensified, marked by arbitrary arrests, prolonged detentions without trial, torture and ill-treatment, extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances, and collective punishment under the guise of national security.

On 24 November 2025, ten UN Special Rapporteurs issued a joint statement condemning “reports of arbitrary arrests and detentions, suspicious deaths in custody, torture and other ill-treatment, lynchings, and discriminatory treatment of Kashmiri and Muslim communities.”

These concerns echo findings previously documented by Michelle Bachelet,the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) in its 2019 report, which warned of an entrenched culture of impunity and lack of accountability for serious violations.

Independent experts on mass atrocities have sounded early warnings. Gregory Stanton, Founder of Genocide Watch, has stated that Kashmir exhibits multiple risk factors associated with genocide, including extreme militarization, denial of identity, suppression of dissent, and systemic impunity.

Freedom of expression and access to information have been severely curtailed. The Committee to Protect Journalists has repeatedly warned that journalism in Kashmir has been effectively criminalized, leaving the population voiceless.

Award-winning journalists and scholars—such as Masarat Zahra and Dr. Nitasha Kaul (British Academic) —have faced harassment, travel bans, and reprisals, including the denial of entry to India, amounting to transnational repression.

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The recent attachment of properties belonging to members of the Kashmiri diaspora who advocate a peaceful resolution of the Kashmir dispute is deeply alarming. These measures appear aimed at intimidating and silencing dissenting voices and preventing the international community from understanding the reality on the ground.

Equally disturbing is the forthcoming trial of Mohammad Yasin Malik before the Supreme Court of India, where the government is seeking the death penalty, a move that has sent shockwaves across Kashmir and among human rights advocates worldwide. The recent convictions of Asiya Andrabi, Nahida Nasreen and Fahmeeda Sofi serve no legitimate purpose other than to suppress political expression and peaceful advocacy.

The continued incarceration of Shabir Ahmed Shah and Masarat Alam, without credible justification, further underscores a pattern of repression aimed at dismantling legitimate political leadership in Kashmir. The prolonged confinement of Khurram Parvez, an internationally known human rights advocate violates all norms of international standards.

These actions collectively reflect a troubling pattern of repression and raise serious concerns under international human rights law. Urgent intervention by the United Nations is essential to protect fundamental freedoms, uphold the rule of law, and prevent further deterioration of the human rights situation in Jammu and Kashmir.

My concerns are consistent with observations made by other United Nations independent experts, international NGO’s, scholars and academics.

Mary Lawlor, UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights Defenders said on the targeting of Kashmiri civil society: “The continued use of counter-terrorism legislation to silence human rights defenders in Jammu and Kashmir is deeply alarming. Peaceful human rights work must never be criminalized under the guise of national security.”

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Dr. Fernand de Varennes, UN Special Rapporteur on Minority Issues (2020): “Restrictions imposed in Jammu and Kashmir appear to be inconsistent with international human rights norms, particularly those protecting minorities.”

International Commission of Jurists (ICJ): “The prolonged denial of civil liberties in Jammu and Kashmir raises serious concerns under international law, including the prohibition of collective punishment and arbitrary detention.”

Amnesty International: “India’s claims of ‘normalcy’ in Kashmir are contradicted by widespread repression, including arbitrary detentions, communication blackouts, and collective punishment of civilians.”

Human Rights Watch: “Impunity for security forces remains the norm, fostering further abuses and denying justice to victims.”

Timely and principled intervention by the United Nations is essential to restore confidence in the rule of law, protect fundamental freedoms, and bring a measure of sanity and accountability to the situation in Jammu and Kashmir.

This submission urges the United Nations to:

  1. Initiate independent international investigations into alleged crimes against humanity in Jammu and Kashmir.
  2. Press for the repeal or reform of laws enabling arbitrary detention and collective punishment.
  3. Persuade India to release Mohammad Yasin Malik, Shabbir Ahmed Shah, Masar Aalam, Asiya Andrabi, Nahida NasreenFahmeeda Soofi, Khurram Parvez and others immediately.
  4. Ensure access to UN Special Procedures, international observers, and independent media.
  5. Call for accountability and remedies for victims, consistent with international law.

Silence and inaction risk normalizing repression. The situation in Jammu and Kashmir demands sustained international scrutiny and principled engagement.


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