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The Ukraine War’s economic consequences for developing countries

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Developing countries in general, and especially those which are net importers of oil are in a real fix as to how to manage macroeconomic challenges like high inflation, balance of payments concerns, and debt sustainability, on one hand, and on the other make needed development expenditures, especially in the health  sector, along with providing enough stimulus, and subsidy to support people in the lower income echelons, which are many and most likely quite rapidly rising in numbers over the pandemic.- Advertisement –

War in Ukraine has made all this all the more difficult, and as Jayati Ghosh rightly pointed, requires a significant amount of support from both rich, advanced countries, and multilateral institutions. Yet this support in any significant way, has remained mostly eluded over the many months during the pandemic. On top of that, oil prices which took a nose-dive and settled to around $20 a barrel in around the later part of April 2020, saw a fast-paced rise in the later part of the same year, due to demand improvement, but sadly also significantly at the back of artificially reduced supply.

Resultantly, oil prices had already risen to above $90 a barrel before the war began, and have now seen reaching around $130 a barrel. Imagine the precarious situation in which developing countries find themselves. For how long they can manage pressures on fiscal balance on account of providing subsidies, and on the balance of payments on account of higher import costs?

Pakistan imported around 80-90 percent of its total wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine in 2020, and therefore a war has meant that the country is likely to face longer timelines, and higher prices with regard to wheat that needs to be imported.

And cutting development expenditures would mean a negative impact on growth recovery, and overall fall into stagflationary consequences. The war will likely exacerbate these pressures on macroeconomic accounts, with consequences of such rise in commodity prices already producing ripples in the political domains of developing countries in general; a repeat of similar consequences seen as the commodity prices increased as an outcome of the Global Financial Crisis of late 2000s.

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Criticising this rather self-centred approach by OPEC+ group of countries, a recent Financial Times (FT) quoted the head of International Energy Agency (IEA) in an article ‘IEA ready to release more oil to ease soaring energy prices, says chief’ recently as follows: ‘The head of the International Energy Agency said the group’s members were ready to release more oil from emergency stockpiles to ease soaring energy prices, as he criticised Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates for refusing to pump more crude.

Fatih Birol said the co-ordinated release last week by the US and other big energy-consuming nations of 60mn barrels was an “initial response” and that the IEA was ready to do “everything” to reduce the volatility in energy markets driven by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.’

A global commodity supply shock had already sky-rocketed food prices, and the war will only add to it, for instance in terms of essential natured commodities like wheat and fertilizer. The same article by Jayati Ghosh pointed out in this regard ‘Before the war, Ukraine was the world’s fifth-largest wheat exporter, and also a major exporter of barley, corn, rapeseed, and sunflower oil.

The prices of these commodities in global trade have risen significantly, adding to recent increases in crop prices generally. …Crop production in developing countries could also be hit by fertilizer shortages. Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter, is also a major fertilizer producer, and disruptions to these exports will push global food prices even higher.’

Highlighting the rising level of commodity prices, a March 3 FT published article ‘Commodity prices soar to highest level since 2008 over Russia supply fear’ indicated ‘The S&P GSCI index, a broad barometer for the price of global raw materials, has jumped 16 per cent this week, leaving it on track for the sharpest rise on records dating back to 1970, according to Refinitiv data.

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It is now at its highest level since 2008. US oil prices also hit the highest level since 2008 on Thursday. Wheat futures in Chicago shot above $12 a bushel. Other commodities including aluminium and coal have also soared this week, in a move that will have profound effects on global businesses and consumers.’- Advertisement –

Similarly, another FT article ‘Food crisis looms as Ukrainian wheat shipments grind to halt’ pointed out with regard to rising food prices that ‘Russia and Ukraine supply almost a third of the world’s wheat exports and since the Russian assault on its neighbour, ports on the Black Sea have come to a virtual standstill.

As a result, wheat prices have soared to record highs, overtaking levels seen during the food crisis of 2007-08. …The surge in prices will fuel soaring food inflation – already at a seven-year high of 7.8 per cent in January – and the biggest impact will be on the food security of poorer grain importers, warned analysts and food aid organisations.

’ As per the same article, Pakistan imported around 80-90 percent of its total wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine in 2020, and therefore a war has meant that the country is likely to face longer timelines, and higher prices with regard to wheat that needs to be imported.

Courtesy : PT

Crypto

Bitcoin Rebounds from Slump Triggered by Iran’s Attack on Israel: Analyzing Market Sentiment and Investor Reactions

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Introduction

On April 13, 2024, Bitcoin experienced a significant price drop following the escalation of tensions between Iran and Israel. The attack on Israel by Iran led to a sharp decline in the price of Bitcoin, causing concern among investors and market analysts. However, the cryptocurrency market has shown resilience, with Bitcoin rebounding from the slump, indicating a potential recovery in the market. In this blog article, we will analyze the impact of the geopolitical event on Bitcoin’s price, market sentiment, and investor reactions.

Impact on Bitcoin Price

The attack on Israel by Iran led to a significant drop in the price of Bitcoin, with the cryptocurrency experiencing a sharp decline in its value. According to CoinMarketCap, the price of Bitcoin dropped from $25,987.73 to $24,427.20 within a few hours of the news. This decline can be attributed to the uncertainty and fear among investors, as geopolitical events can have a significant impact on the global economy and financial markets.

Market Sentiment

The sudden drop in Bitcoin’s price led to a wave of panic among investors, causing a shift in market sentiment. According to data from CoinMarketCap, the market sentiment for Bitcoin shifted from “Neutral” to “Negative” within hours of the news. This change in sentiment can be attributed to the fear of potential economic instability caused by the geopolitical event.

Geopolitical Events and Bitcoin

Geopolitical events have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market, particularly on the price of Bitcoin. In recent years, we have seen how events such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the ongoing US-China trade war have affected the cryptocurrency market. The attack on Israel by Iran is just another example of how geopolitical events can cause volatility in the market.

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Investor Reactions

The sudden drop in Bitcoin’s price led to a wave of panic among investors, causing some to sell their holdings in a bid to minimize their losses. However, other investors saw this as an opportunity to buy Bitcoin at a lower price, believing that the cryptocurrency would recover in the long run. This divergence in investor reactions highlights the inherent volatility of the cryptocurrency market and the importance of understanding market sentiment and geopolitical events.

Recovery and Future Outlook

Despite the initial decline, Bitcoin has shown resilience and has started to recover from the slump. As of the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin has rebounded to $25,537.95, indicating a potential recovery in the market. However, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains uncertain, as the cryptocurrency market is heavily influenced by geopolitical events and market sentiment.

Conclusion

The attack on Israel by Iran led to a significant drop in the price of Bitcoin, causing panic among investors and uncertainty in the market. However, the cryptocurrency has shown resilience and has started to recover from the slump. As we move forward, it is essential to monitor geopolitical events and market sentiment to understand the potential impact on the cryptocurrency market.

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China

Navigating the Economic Transformation: China’s Future Depends on Microeconomic Policies

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Introduction

China’s economic growth has been a significant global phenomenon, with its rapid expansion driving global trade and shaping the global economy. However, as China enters a new phase of its economic development, it faces challenges that require a shift in focus from macroeconomic stimulus to microeconomic policies. This article explores the importance of microeconomic policies in China’s future economic growth and the implications for businesses and markets.

I. The Limitations of Macroeconomic Stimulus

  1. Temporary Boost: Macroeconomic stimulus, such as government spending and monetary policy, can provide a temporary boost to the economy. However, it does not address the underlying structural issues that hinder long-term growth.
  2. Amplifying Economic Shortcomings: Macroeconomic stimulus can exacerbate economic imbalances and inefficiencies, leading to a more significant correction in the future.

II. The Importance of Microeconomic Policies

  1. Structural Reforms: Microeconomic policies focus on structural reforms that address the root causes of economic challenges. These reforms can include labor market reforms, regulatory changes, and infrastructure investments.
  2. Encouraging Business Transformation: Microeconomic policies can create an environment that encourages businesses to transform and adapt to changing market conditions. This can lead to increased productivity, innovation, and competitiveness.

III. The Role of Businesses in China’s Economic Transformation

  1. Adapting to Market Changes: As China’s economy evolves, businesses must adapt to new market conditions and consumer preferences. This may involve shifting from traditional industries to more innovative and technology-driven sectors.
  2. Embracing Innovation: To prosper in the new economic environment, businesses must embrace innovation and technological advancements. This can include investing in research and development, adopting new technologies, and fostering a culture of innovation.
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IV. Implications for Markets and Investors

  1. Changing Market Dynamics: As China’s economic focus shifts from macroeconomic stimulus to microeconomic policies, market dynamics will change. Investors should be prepared for a more volatile and uncertain market environment.
  2. Opportunities for Investors: The shift to microeconomic policies presents opportunities for investors in sectors that benefit from structural reforms and business transformation. These may include technology, healthcare, and environmental sectors.

Conclusion

China’s future economic growth depends on its ability to navigate the complex transition from macroeconomic stimulus to microeconomic policies. This requires a focused effort on structural reforms, business transformation, and a shift towards innovation and technology. As China embarks on this transformation, businesses and investors must adapt to the changing market conditions and seize the opportunities presented by the new economic environment.

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Economy

Understanding the Latest Inflation Figures: Causes, Consequences, and the Fed’s Response

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woman calculating her receipts

Introduction

Inflation, the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, has been a topic of concern for economists and policymakers alike. Recently, the US inflation rate has risen to 2.5%, according to the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. This figure is in line with economists’ expectations but remains above the central bank’s target of 2%. In this blog article, we will delve into the causes of this inflation rise, its impact on the economy, the Federal Reserve’s response, and the potential future implications.

Causes of Inflation:

  1. Supply Chain Disruptions: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant disruptions in global supply chains, leading to increased demand for goods and services.
  2. Fiscal Policy: Government spending and tax policies can influence inflation by increasing the demand for goods and services, leading to higher prices.
  3. Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve’s actions, such as adjusting interest rates, can impact inflation by influencing the supply of money and credit in the economy.

Impact of Inflation on the Economy:

  1. Consumer Prices: Inflation directly affects the prices consumers pay for goods and services, potentially reducing their purchasing power.
  2. Interest Rates: Central banks, like the Federal Reserve, may adjust interest rates to control inflation, which can impact borrowing costs and economic growth.
  3. Economic Stability: High and persistent inflation can lead to economic instability, as businesses and consumers struggle to predict future prices.

Fed’s Response to Inflation:

  1. Interest Rate Adjustments: The Federal Reserve has the ability to adjust interest rates to control inflation, which can impact borrowing costs and economic growth.
  2. Communication: The Fed communicates its monetary policy decisions and future expectations to the public, which can influence market expectations and economic behavior.
  3. Inflation Targets: The Fed has set a target inflation rate of 2%, which it aims to maintain over the long term.
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Future Implications of Inflation:

  1. Monetary Policy: The Fed’s response to inflation will depend on its assessment of the current economic situation and future expectations.
  2. Economic Growth: High and persistent inflation can negatively impact economic growth, as businesses and consumers may reduce spending and investment due to uncertainty.
  3. Policy Coordination: Central banks, governments, and international organizations may need to coordinate their policies to address inflation and promote economic stability.

Conclusion
The recent rise in US inflation to 2.5% is a cause for concern, as it remains above the Federal Reserve’s target. Understanding the causes of this inflation, its impact on the economy, and the Fed’s response is crucial for policymakers and investors alike. By addressing these issues, we can work towards maintaining economic stability and promoting sustainable growth.

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