China
US-Pak Relations in Historical Perspective
With the changing geostrategic Situation and after the Twitter blitz, Donald Trump turns to Pakistan to get rid of Afghan Mess and seeking help from Islamabad to influence the Taliban by bringing them to the negotiating table. The Russia Peace Talks with the participation of the stakeholders along with Insurgent Taliban leadership and Afghanistan Peace Council Delegation held talks in Moscow to reach an agreement but the talks, unfortunately, did not bear any fruit.
US-Pakistan relations have always been overcast with mistrust but this time, the onus has been felt and new terms of engagement have surfaced with New Government of Pakistan. Imran Khan in his exclusive interview With the Washington Post has made it clear that Pakistan is not hired Gun and will not fight anyone’s war.
The Peace in Afghanistan is in favour of Pakistan and welcomed the letter by giving a positive response to Trump’s request. The Foreign Office will draft the reply to the letter and will present to Prime Minister Imran Khan for approval.
The analysts and political pundits have termed the development as positive and this time the Trump administration seems to be serious in engagement with Pakistan. The incoming US central command Lieutenant General Kenneth McKenzie has also said that he will engage with Pakistan on priority basis as directed by the US president to him since the US wants to come in direct talks with the insurgent Taliban and bring them to negotiating table to devise a sharable government plan and the possible amendments in the Afghan Constitution.
With Kartarpur Corridor opening to facilitate the Sikh Pilgrims of India and the recent paradigm shift in US-Pakistan Relations are being termed as watershed moments for both Pakistan and US to work together to bring Normalcy in Afghanistan Since both US and Pakistan has suffered a lot in so-called War on terror and Pakistan has done a lot more than expected as US Ally .
Pakistan facilitated the US by giving her ground, Air and communication channels that played a vital role as a close ally in post 9/11 arena and the US bid for regime change in Afghanistan. Pakistan has laid down unprecedented sacrifices of Civil and Military sacrifices in thousands and what Pakistan is facing today in terms of Economic crisis that is because of being a close ally of US in War on terror and have significantly lost its Investment and Trade opportunities at the helm of America.
Donald Trump’s so-called irresponsible Twitter Tirade against Pakistan blaming that despite paying millions of Rupees in security aid, Pakistan has deceived the US or did not do the damn thing ,has stirred widespread criticism since the World Community is well aware that Pakistan Suffered a lot being a US ally and that is the mistrust that has become the Stalemate between US-Pak relations and the ambiguities that have stalled the diplomatic relations.
With increasing US alignment towards India and signing various trade agreement with Modi Regime ,Trump Administration has also created the sense of disappointment in the circles of Civil and Military leadership of Pakistan that despite making us a scapegoat and used as the hired gun –the salt is being rubbed on our wounds by favouring our arch-rivals since we have lost our near and dear ones in various terrorist activities infiltrated from Afghanistan and the India patronizing the Separatist movements in the province of Baluchistan.
The Indian spy captured from Baluchistan province, Kalbhushan Yadav, had publically confessed that how Indian Secret Agency Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) carried out various terrorist activities within Pakistan to bring instability through terrorism.
The US might have been advised by various think-tanks and Influencing bodies of political and diplomatic circles that an ally who fought the war on terror as an important ally of US and still bearing the brunt of Terrorist attacks -be it Army Public School attack, the attacks on various Shrine, Shia-Sunni Sectarian killings patronized by international forces, is left out when it comes the development option or trade relations or when Pakistan needed US support to fix its balance of Payments Issue .
Instead of giving support, US withheld a huge chunk of security aid and even tried to influence the International Monetary Fund (IMF) not to offer any bailout package as the same may be used to repay Chinese loans. Thanks to Saudis and China helping Pakistan to fix the issue of balance payments that alignment towards alternative powers might have prompted the US to change its stance.
Pakistan has always responded in positive gesture and has been overburdened with Afghan Refugees influx caused by US air Strikes on Afghanistan for regime change, Dismantling AlQaida and nabbing the Osama bin Laden.
Pakistan has the majority of Afghan refugees in KPK and Sindh province and often found involved in terrorist links or activities as Pakistan Army and Rangers conducted various anti-terrorism operations under the National Action Plan in FATA and KPK to cleanse the terrorist elements and so far, achieved tremendous success in eradication of Terrorism and restoring peace in the country.
On the other hand, US has always demanded from Pakistan to do more that is really disappointing and hurting. Despite all these odds, Pakistan’s civil and military leadership appears to be on the same page and ready to engage with the US on revised terms of engagement for the sake of peace.
Both Pakistan and the US have suffered losses, now, it is the time that they should serve the common interests of each other.Pakistan can play a key role in the Afghan peace process since this time ,the regional powers of Asia such as Russia, China, India, Pakistan, Turkey and US intend to resolve the issue through dialogue as American have failed in bringing peace despite their presence in Afghanistan and have been waging war for the last 17 years .
This is perhaps one of the longest wars they have fought and apparently, they are losing the ground since the Taliban seem to be much organized and have become a party for talks rather than an insurgent group. They have control of various provinces and possess great influence in its controlled areas.
The Afghan Peace process will never succeed unless all the stakeholders are taken on board especially the Taliban leadership, as prior to the US-led Air strikes, Taliban had full control of all the areas of Afghanistan.
Owing to being a landlocked country, Afghanistan depends on Pakistan for the trade and supplies. The Peace Process may pave the way for Pakistan-Afghanistan Transit Trade Agreement (APTTA) that was bilateral trade agreement signed in 2010 that calls for greater facilitation in the movement of goods between these two countries.
The China Pakistan Economic Corridor is yet another trade route that will benefit Afghanistan if the peace agreement reaches between the Taliban and the Afghan Government.
CPEC is a game changer not only for Pakistan but also for the Central Asian States. The analysts are of the view that CPEC may trigger Hybrid war since it has a very significant geostrategic position that will attract more countries towards it including the OPEC to use the Gawadar Port for transportation of Oil and LPG gas to the South Asian and Central Asian States.
It is imperative that Pakistan and US must work together for regional peace and especially reaching an agreement with the insurgent Taliban leadership so that Peace could be maintained and restored in Afghanistan.
The withdrawal plan for the NATO forces may be chalked out and the refugees’ crisis may be overcome since Pakistan has not been compensated in a real sense despite being overburdened by 1.45 million Afghan Refugees as per recent statistics of UNHCR and UNHCR termed Pakistan as World’s biggest country to host such high number of Refugees.
It is hoped that this change of attitude will benefit both the countries and will improve diplomatic relations and help find out lasting solutions to bring peace in war-torn Afghanistan and repatriation of Afghan refugees.
The world order is in a state of flux, with shifting power dynamics, rising geopolitical tensions, and emerging challenges that require a concerted effort from global leaders. As two of the most influential nations, the United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK) have a crucial role to play in shaping the future of the international system. However, their relationship and individual strategies are facing significant challenges that must be addressed to maintain their influence and promote stability.
Table of Contents
Speculations on the Changing World Order
The current world order is characterized by the rise of new powers, such as China, and the declining influence of traditional Western powers like the US and UK[1]. This shift is driven by factors such as the digital revolution, globalization, and the changing balance of economic and political power[1]. The US’s “America First” stance and the UK’s post-Brexit challenges have further complicated the situation, leading to a more volatile and unpredictable international environment[1][4].
Concerns for the US-UK Relationship
The US-UK relationship, often referred to as the “special relationship,” is facing significant challenges. The US has taken unilateral decisions on key issues, such as the Iran nuclear deal and trade policy, which have undermined the UK’s interests[1]. The UK has struggled to influence the US administration, which is a reflection of a broader shift in the US towards a more inward-looking approach[1]. Additionally, the UK’s decision to leave the European Union (EU) has weakened its position on the global stage and complicated its relationship with the US[4].
Strategies for the US and UK
To navigate the changing world order, the US and UK must adapt their strategies and priorities. Here are some key areas that require attention:
Strengthening the Transatlantic Alliance
Despite the challenges, the US-UK relationship remains crucial for maintaining stability and promoting shared values in the international system. Both countries should work to strengthen the transatlantic alliance by fostering closer cooperation on key issues, such as security, trade, and climate change[1][5].
Engaging with Emerging Powers
The rise of new powers, particularly China, presents both opportunities and challenges for the US and UK. While it is important to work with these countries to address global challenges, it is also crucial to ensure that such cooperation is consistent with international humanitarian law and balanced with other close friendships, such as with Japan[1][3].
Promoting Values-Based Foreign Policy
The US and UK should put values at the heart of their foreign policy, promoting democracy, human rights, and the rule of law[2]. This includes tackling entrenched unequal power relations in the current international order and making a substantial impact on poverty and inequality[2].
Strengthening Multilateral Institutions
The US and UK should work to strengthen multilateral institutions, such as the United Nations and the World Trade Organization, to promote global cooperation and address shared challenges[1][3]. This includes reforming these institutions to make them more representative and effective in the face of new challenges[3].
Investing in Soft Power
The US and UK should invest in their soft power assets, such as cultural diplomacy, education, and development assistance, to promote their influence and values on the global stage[1][3]. This includes strengthening partnerships with civil society organizations and promoting inclusive representation at home and abroad[2].
Conclusion
The changing world order presents significant challenges for the US and UK, but also opportunities to shape a more stable and equitable international system. By adapting their strategies, strengthening their relationship, and promoting shared values, the US and UK can continue to play a leading role in shaping the future of the world order. However, this will require a long-term commitment to multilateralism, values-based foreign policy, and inclusive global governance.
References:
[1] [PDF] UK foreign policy in a shifting world order – Parliament (publications) https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201719/ldselect/ldintrel/250/250.pdf
[2] Finding Britain’s Role in a Changing World: Building a values-based … https://policy-practice.oxfam.org/resources/finding-britains-role-in-a-changing-world-building-a-values-based-foreign-polic-620950/
[3] New world order (politics) – Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_world_order_%28politics%29
[4] The United Kingdom’s Role in the World – CSIS https://www.csis.org/analysis/united-kingdoms-role-world
[5] Three foreign policy priorities for the next UK government https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/05/three-foreign-policy-priorities-next-uk-government
[6] An Assessment of Geopolitics and Changing World Order – Part 1 https://monetagroup.com/an-assessment-of-geopolitics-and-changing-world-order-part-1/
[7] Has the UK put all its eggs in one basket in a shifting World order? https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/has-uk-put-all-its-eggs-one-basket-shifting-world-8nape
[8] House of Lords – UK foreign policy in a shifting world order https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201719/ldselect/ldintrel/250/25009.htm
The battle over TikTok has raged for months as the United States government has grown increasingly concerned about the potential security risks posed by the popular social media app’s Chinese ownership. In August 2020, President Trump signed an executive order that would have banned TikTok in the US unless its ownership was transferred to an American company. A federal judge later blocked the order, but the threat of a ban has loomed over the app ever since.
Recently, the US Congress took a first step towards forcing TikTok’s Chinese owner, ByteDance, to sell the app. The move came in the form of the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act, which was signed into law in December 2020. The law requires foreign companies listed on US stock exchanges to comply with US auditing regulations or face delisting. ByteDance is currently in the process of exploring options to comply with the law, including a possible sale of TikTok to a US buyer.
Table of Contents
Key Takeaways
- The US government has been concerned about the security risks posed by TikTok’s Chinese ownership, and the threat of a ban has loomed over the app for months.
- The Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act requires foreign companies listed on US stock exchanges to comply with US auditing regulations or face delisting, which could force ByteDance to sell TikTok to a US buyer.
- The battle over TikTok highlights the economic and political stakes of technology ownership and raises important questions about legislative actions and corporate responses to national security concerns.
Legislative Actions
The battle over TikTok has led to a series of legislative actions by the US Congress. In August 2020, Congress took the first step towards forcing the app’s Chinese owner, ByteDance, to divest TikTok’s US operations to a US-based company. This was in response to concerns over national security and the potential for user data to be accessed by the Chinese government.
Congressional Steps Toward Divestment
The divestment order was issued by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), a government agency responsible for reviewing foreign investment in US companies. This order required ByteDance to sell TikTok’s US operations within 90 days, or face a ban on the app in the US.
In response, ByteDance filed a lawsuit challenging the divestment order, arguing that it was not given due process and that the order was politically motivated. However, the lawsuit was dismissed by a federal judge in December 2020.
Legal Implications
The battle over TikTok has raised important legal questions about the relationship between national security and foreign investment in the US. The divestment order issued by CFIUS was based on concerns over national security, but it is unclear whether such concerns can be used to justify forcing a foreign company to sell its US operations.
Moreover, the battle over TikTok has highlighted the challenges of regulating social media platforms that are owned by foreign companies. TikTok’s Chinese ownership has raised concerns over the potential for user data to be accessed by the Chinese government, leading to calls for greater regulation of social media platforms.
Overall, the battle over TikTok has demonstrated the complex legal and regulatory challenges posed by foreign investment in the US, particularly in the technology sector. While Congress has taken steps towards divesting TikTok’s US operations, the legal implications of such actions remain unclear.
Corporate Response
Company’s Defense Strategy
TikTok’s Chinese owner, ByteDance, has vowed to fight back against the US Congress’s decision to force it to sell off the app’s US operations. The company is reportedly considering several options to defend itself, including legal action, lobbying efforts, and potential partnerships with US companies.
ByteDance has argued that the move by Congress is politically motivated and violates the company’s rights. The company has also emphasized that TikTok’s US user data is stored in the US and is not subject to Chinese government control.
To bolster its defence, ByteDance has hired a team of high-profile lawyers, including former US Solicitor General Theodore Olson. The company is also reportedly exploring potential partnerships with US companies, such as Microsoft, to help address concerns about data security.
Public Relations Efforts
In addition to its legal and lobbying efforts, ByteDance has launched a public relations campaign to defend the app and its Chinese ownership. The company has emphasized TikTok’s popularity and cultural impact, highlighting its role in promoting diversity and creativity.
ByteDance has also sought to distance itself from the Chinese government, emphasizing that it operates independently and is not subject to Chinese censorship laws. The company has also emphasized its commitment to data privacy and security, noting that it stores user data in the US and other countries outside of China.
Despite these efforts, ByteDance faces an uphill battle to defend TikTok’s US operations. The company will need to address concerns about data security and potential Chinese government influence, while also convincing US lawmakers and regulators that it can operate independently and in the best interests of US users.
Economic and Political Stakes
The battle over TikTok has major economic and political implications for both the United States and China. With more than 91 million users in the US alone, TikTok has become a significant player in the social media landscape, and its popularity has made it a target of concern for US lawmakers. The recent moves by the US Congress to force the app’s Chinese owner to sell it off have raised questions about the future of the app and its impact on US-China relations.
Impact on US-China Relations
The battle over TikTok has the potential to further strain already tense relations between the US and China. The Trump administration has been vocal in its criticism of China, and the move to force the sale of TikTok is just the latest in a series of actions taken against Chinese companies. The Chinese government has responded with its own set of measures, including new restrictions on US tech companies operating in China.
The ongoing battle over TikTok has also highlighted concerns about data privacy and security. US lawmakers have raised concerns about the app’s data collection practices and the potential for the Chinese government to access user data. China has denied any wrongdoing and has accused the US of using national security concerns as a pretext for protectionism.
Consequences for Global Markets
The battle over TikTok has wider implications for global markets. The app’s popularity has made it a significant player in the social media landscape, and its forced sale could have ripple effects on the tech industry as a whole. The move could also have implications for other Chinese companies operating in the US, and could lead to a wider crackdown on Chinese investment in the US.
The battle over TikTok is likely to continue for some time, and the outcome is far from certain. However, the economic and political stakes are high, and the impact of the battle could be felt for years to come.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the rationale behind the US Congress’s move to force a sale of TikTok?
The US Congress has expressed concerns about the potential national security risks posed by TikTok’s ownership by Chinese company ByteDance. Lawmakers have cited fears that TikTok’s data collection practices may be used by the Chinese government to gather sensitive information on US citizens. The move to force a sale of TikTok is seen as a way to mitigate these risks.
What is the status of the legislation aimed at banning TikTok?
As of the current date, no legislation has been passed to ban TikTok in the US. However, the US Department of Commerce has taken steps to restrict the app’s use in the country. In September 2020, the Department announced that it would ban TikTok from US app stores, though this decision was later temporarily blocked by a federal judge.
How might TikTok’s ownership respond to the US legislative actions?
TikTok’s ownership has previously pushed back against US legislative actions aimed at restricting the app’s use. The company has argued that it operates independently of the Chinese government and has taken steps to distance itself from its Chinese roots, including hiring US-based executives and establishing a US-based subsidiary. However, it remains to be seen how the company will respond to the latest legislative actions aimed at forcing a sale of the app.
What are the potential consequences for users if TikTok is banned in the US?
If TikTok is banned in the US, users may lose access to the app’s social media features, including the ability to create and share short-form videos. However, it is worth noting that TikTok’s popularity has led to the emergence of several alternative social media apps that offer similar features, such as Instagram’s Reels and Byte, which was created by the co-founder of Vine.
Has any legislation been passed to date regarding the prohibition of TikTok?
As of the current date, no legislation has been passed to prohibit the use of TikTok in the US. However, the US government has taken steps to restrict the app’s use, including the aforementioned ban on TikTok in US app stores.
Which other countries have taken steps to ban or restrict TikTok?
Several other countries, including India and Pakistan, have taken steps to ban or restrict TikTok over concerns about national security and user privacy. In India, TikTok was banned in June 2020, along with several other Chinese-owned apps. In Pakistan, the government has announced plans to ban TikTok unless the app takes steps to address concerns about “obscenity and immorality.”
Introduction
China’s consumer prices have shown signs of rebounding, thanks to a holiday boom. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew by 0.7% year on year in February, surpassing expectations and marking the first rise after six consecutive months of decline. However, amidst this positive development, there are looming concerns about deflation risks as factory gate prices continue to fall for the 17th consecutive month. This article delves into the intricacies of China’s current economic landscape, analyzing the factors contributing to the CPI growth and exploring the implications of persistent deflation risks.
1: Understanding China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) Growth
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) serves as a key indicator of inflation and reflects changes in the prices paid by consumers for goods and services. The recent 0.7% year-on-year growth in China’s CPI in February has sparked optimism among economists and policymakers. This growth can be attributed to various factors, including increased consumer spending during holidays, rising demand for certain goods and services, and government stimulus measures aimed at boosting consumption.
2: Implications of CPI Growth on China’s Economy
The rebound in consumer prices has significant implications for China’s economy. A positive CPI growth indicates a healthier level of inflation, which can stimulate economic activity by encouraging spending and investment. It also reflects improved consumer confidence and overall economic stability. However, it is essential to monitor the sustainability of this growth and its impact on other economic indicators.
3: Analyzing Deflation Risks in China’s Economy
Despite the encouraging CPI growth, there are concerns about deflation risks looming over China’s economy. The continuous decline in factory gate prices for the 17th consecutive month is seen as a warning signal by analysts. Deflation can have detrimental effects on an economy, leading to reduced consumer spending, lower corporate profits, and potential economic stagnation. Policymakers must address these deflation risks proactively to prevent long-term negative consequences.
4: Factors Contributing to Deflation Risks
Several factors contribute to the deflation risks faced by China’s economy. Overcapacity in certain industries, weak global demand, trade tensions, and technological advancements leading to cost reductions are some of the key factors driving down factory gate prices. Addressing these underlying issues requires a comprehensive approach that involves structural reforms, targeted stimulus measures, and strategic policy interventions.
5: Strategies to Mitigate Deflation Risks
To mitigate deflation risks and sustain economic growth, policymakers in China need to implement effective strategies. These may include promoting domestic consumption through incentives and subsidies, fostering innovation and technological advancement to enhance competitiveness, addressing overcapacity through industry restructuring, and maintaining a stable macroeconomic environment through prudent monetary and fiscal policies.
Conclusion
China’s consumer price rebound offers a glimmer of hope amidst challenging economic conditions. While the CPI growth signals positive momentum in the short term, it is essential to address the underlying deflation risks to ensure long-term economic stability and growth. By understanding the factors contributing to CPI growth and deflation risks, policymakers can formulate targeted strategies to navigate these challenges effectively. Monitoring economic indicators closely and implementing proactive measures will be crucial in safeguarding China’s economy against potential downturns.
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