China
China-India Stand-Off and the Emerging World Order
The Recent showdown between People’s Liberation Army and Indian Army has escalated the situation in Galwan valley along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) Between China and India. The unarmed fight resulted in the killing of 20 Indian Soldiers while the casualties on China side have not been confirmed yet.
The analysts link the fight with Indian Unilateral move on August 05 2019, when it annexed the disputed territory of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh by repealing article 370.
This move irked both Pakistan and china and both raised the issue at UNSC and UNGA and recorded their protest against such unilateral move that was tantamount to UN Security Council Resolutions that asked for holding a plebiscite in disputed Jammu and Kashmir.
Unfortunately, India has worst diplomatic relations with its neighbours such as Afghanistan, China, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. It has used all its resources to destabilize neighbouring states especially Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.
The recent clash has serious repercussion after 40 years when both Nations clashed in 1962. The war clouds are looming as both Nations are preparing to engage in a full-scale war that might be disastrous for the whole region. So much so that UK Newspapers called it World War –III as two biggest South Asian Countries engaged in fighting that was a heavy blow to Fascist Modi who is the mastermind of Muslim Massacre and Genocide.
Even linked Covid-19 outbreak with Muslims, that showed his Hindutva mindset and stupidity. The Indian reaction to boycott Chinese Brands will cost the heavily economically as world economies are already fragile owing to two-month lockdown that has paralyzed the business and Trade and limited people to their houses.
Pakistan has been watching the emerging situation after June 15 Clash between Chinese PLA and Indian Army, is ready to defend its frontiers as Forces put on Red Alert.
The high-level negotiations were held to deescalate the situation but all efforts of peacemaking have not produced positive results and Modi’s BJP is underfire internally since Congress has been posing hard questions as Chinese forces are present in areas claimed by India.
There are protests in Nepal against India as new released Map has reflected some disputed areas in India that have also sparked protests in Nepal. Though India still enjoys support from the US especially from President Donald Trump he is himself under pressure from Republicans owing to his failure to manage the pandemic and the cases are soaring each day.
America is worst affected by the pandemic with the maximum number of infections and deaths over one lac. India has also close relations with Israel and has purchased fighter jets and other war-related items.
The recent mysterious bomb blasts targeting Iran’s Nuclear Installations and army camps have raised serious questions on the state of Iran’s internal l security measures as well as it let everybody wondering that who was behind the attacks but Iran has blamed Israel for the blasts.
Though none has accepted the responsibility of attacks, Iran has alleged Israel as Israel is the soul of the US and may be involved in a bombing incident.
The conflict will expand in the Middle East and South Asia if Iran takes aggressive action against Israel and on the other hand If China and India engage in a full-scale war.
The situation is getting tougher and complicated day by as US has been struggling to tackle with the pandemic issue that has infected millions of American baffling US President Donald to the extent that It power game is waning each passing day and Global influence is declining due to economic crisis and massive unemployment owing to the pandemic.
The pandemic has forced hundreds of companies to lay off staff as they could not afford to pay the salaries of Staff given the lockdowns imposed by various Governments in the world as well as the sense of uncertainty gripping the enterprises and startups.
Though the health companies, Pharma and Tech companies, online stores and markets are booming with profit the most profitable business, travel and Tour, entertainment and Hotel Business and wedding Party and Even management Companies have almost been closed for an indefinite period owing to the restrictions placed by the Governments to control the outbreak of Covid-19.
US being superpower has been weakened or jolted by the pandemic and gradually losing its hold on world Affairs. On the contrary, China has been regaining the control and even declared itself superpower of the world. The World order is constantly changing and china has put itself in a strong geostrategic position even in the time of Pandemic.
Recent China and Iran Pact have further paved the for the success of CPEC since Iran may join CPEC to make its oil available to China, Pakistan and Central Asian Muslim Countries.
“The inclusion of Iran in CPEC may further Isolate India in the region since it will be surrounded by all sides i.e. China, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran. Pakistan may play a leading role in the region since America has lost a sincere ally in South Asia.”
Pakistan Army and Civilian Leadership played a pivotal role peacemaking in Afghanistan by bringing the Taliban on the negotiation table and signing the deal with the US providing safe passage to US Troops Withdrawal.
Turkey also emerging great power and may have a role in changing world order where US, UK may fade in history books as some international Policy Experts are of the view that Pandemic has provided a golden chance to countries like China to play a leading role as American hegemony has bitten the dust.
The upcoming Presidential Elections will carve the future of America as Trump Administration has completely failed to manage and control Covid-19 and even put curbs on new Testing Policy which is already under fire from his Rival Political Party the Democrats, especially the Presidential Election Nominee Joe Biden.
The November is just two months away and these Presidential Elections will be both violent and historical since the African American will support Democrats as they are fed up with Trump over racist thoughts especially brutal Killing of African American George Floyd that prompted worldwide Protests against racism and Police Brutalities.
“The Recent deal between Israel and UAE inked with efforts Donald Trump has irked both Arab and Non Arab Nations as recognition of Israel will have serious repercussions on the Muslim world. “
Efforts are being made by Turkey, Iran, Pakistan to form a new Block as Since Independence Pakistan has clear Policy that it will never recognize Israel until Establishment of Palestine State as per the wishes of People of Palestine.
Pakistan is the only Islamic country in the world that has reflected on its Passport that it is valid for all countries except Israel sending a strong message that It will never recognize Israel as it is an occupant.
Though at the moment, Pakistan is under pressure from the US to recognize Israel this will not happen any time soon. The statement of Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi has escalated Pak Saudi diplomatic relations as Qureshi criticized that OIC has not adopted the strong stance on Kashmir Issue. Though Army Chief along with ISI chief paid a visit to Saudi Arab to mend ways but Pakistan’s weak economic structure will compel it to bow down before Pressure.
China is playing on the front foot as it’s expedition inside Indian Controlled areas is advancing rapidly the escalation is high. The weakened structure of the US has given birth to new regional powers carving new world order as the US is waning due to wrong policies of Donald. The emerging situation is favouring China, Russia, Turkey, Iran and Pakistan.
The world order is in a state of flux, with shifting power dynamics, rising geopolitical tensions, and emerging challenges that require a concerted effort from global leaders. As two of the most influential nations, the United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK) have a crucial role to play in shaping the future of the international system. However, their relationship and individual strategies are facing significant challenges that must be addressed to maintain their influence and promote stability.
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Speculations on the Changing World Order
The current world order is characterized by the rise of new powers, such as China, and the declining influence of traditional Western powers like the US and UK[1]. This shift is driven by factors such as the digital revolution, globalization, and the changing balance of economic and political power[1]. The US’s “America First” stance and the UK’s post-Brexit challenges have further complicated the situation, leading to a more volatile and unpredictable international environment[1][4].
Concerns for the US-UK Relationship
The US-UK relationship, often referred to as the “special relationship,” is facing significant challenges. The US has taken unilateral decisions on key issues, such as the Iran nuclear deal and trade policy, which have undermined the UK’s interests[1]. The UK has struggled to influence the US administration, which is a reflection of a broader shift in the US towards a more inward-looking approach[1]. Additionally, the UK’s decision to leave the European Union (EU) has weakened its position on the global stage and complicated its relationship with the US[4].
Strategies for the US and UK
To navigate the changing world order, the US and UK must adapt their strategies and priorities. Here are some key areas that require attention:
Strengthening the Transatlantic Alliance
Despite the challenges, the US-UK relationship remains crucial for maintaining stability and promoting shared values in the international system. Both countries should work to strengthen the transatlantic alliance by fostering closer cooperation on key issues, such as security, trade, and climate change[1][5].
Engaging with Emerging Powers
The rise of new powers, particularly China, presents both opportunities and challenges for the US and UK. While it is important to work with these countries to address global challenges, it is also crucial to ensure that such cooperation is consistent with international humanitarian law and balanced with other close friendships, such as with Japan[1][3].
Promoting Values-Based Foreign Policy
The US and UK should put values at the heart of their foreign policy, promoting democracy, human rights, and the rule of law[2]. This includes tackling entrenched unequal power relations in the current international order and making a substantial impact on poverty and inequality[2].
Strengthening Multilateral Institutions
The US and UK should work to strengthen multilateral institutions, such as the United Nations and the World Trade Organization, to promote global cooperation and address shared challenges[1][3]. This includes reforming these institutions to make them more representative and effective in the face of new challenges[3].
Investing in Soft Power
The US and UK should invest in their soft power assets, such as cultural diplomacy, education, and development assistance, to promote their influence and values on the global stage[1][3]. This includes strengthening partnerships with civil society organizations and promoting inclusive representation at home and abroad[2].
Conclusion
The changing world order presents significant challenges for the US and UK, but also opportunities to shape a more stable and equitable international system. By adapting their strategies, strengthening their relationship, and promoting shared values, the US and UK can continue to play a leading role in shaping the future of the world order. However, this will require a long-term commitment to multilateralism, values-based foreign policy, and inclusive global governance.
References:
[1] [PDF] UK foreign policy in a shifting world order – Parliament (publications) https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201719/ldselect/ldintrel/250/250.pdf
[2] Finding Britain’s Role in a Changing World: Building a values-based … https://policy-practice.oxfam.org/resources/finding-britains-role-in-a-changing-world-building-a-values-based-foreign-polic-620950/
[3] New world order (politics) – Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_world_order_%28politics%29
[4] The United Kingdom’s Role in the World – CSIS https://www.csis.org/analysis/united-kingdoms-role-world
[5] Three foreign policy priorities for the next UK government https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/05/three-foreign-policy-priorities-next-uk-government
[6] An Assessment of Geopolitics and Changing World Order – Part 1 https://monetagroup.com/an-assessment-of-geopolitics-and-changing-world-order-part-1/
[7] Has the UK put all its eggs in one basket in a shifting World order? https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/has-uk-put-all-its-eggs-one-basket-shifting-world-8nape
[8] House of Lords – UK foreign policy in a shifting world order https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201719/ldselect/ldintrel/250/25009.htm
The battle over TikTok has raged for months as the United States government has grown increasingly concerned about the potential security risks posed by the popular social media app’s Chinese ownership. In August 2020, President Trump signed an executive order that would have banned TikTok in the US unless its ownership was transferred to an American company. A federal judge later blocked the order, but the threat of a ban has loomed over the app ever since.
Recently, the US Congress took a first step towards forcing TikTok’s Chinese owner, ByteDance, to sell the app. The move came in the form of the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act, which was signed into law in December 2020. The law requires foreign companies listed on US stock exchanges to comply with US auditing regulations or face delisting. ByteDance is currently in the process of exploring options to comply with the law, including a possible sale of TikTok to a US buyer.
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Key Takeaways
- The US government has been concerned about the security risks posed by TikTok’s Chinese ownership, and the threat of a ban has loomed over the app for months.
- The Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act requires foreign companies listed on US stock exchanges to comply with US auditing regulations or face delisting, which could force ByteDance to sell TikTok to a US buyer.
- The battle over TikTok highlights the economic and political stakes of technology ownership and raises important questions about legislative actions and corporate responses to national security concerns.
Legislative Actions
The battle over TikTok has led to a series of legislative actions by the US Congress. In August 2020, Congress took the first step towards forcing the app’s Chinese owner, ByteDance, to divest TikTok’s US operations to a US-based company. This was in response to concerns over national security and the potential for user data to be accessed by the Chinese government.
Congressional Steps Toward Divestment
The divestment order was issued by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), a government agency responsible for reviewing foreign investment in US companies. This order required ByteDance to sell TikTok’s US operations within 90 days, or face a ban on the app in the US.
In response, ByteDance filed a lawsuit challenging the divestment order, arguing that it was not given due process and that the order was politically motivated. However, the lawsuit was dismissed by a federal judge in December 2020.
Legal Implications
The battle over TikTok has raised important legal questions about the relationship between national security and foreign investment in the US. The divestment order issued by CFIUS was based on concerns over national security, but it is unclear whether such concerns can be used to justify forcing a foreign company to sell its US operations.
Moreover, the battle over TikTok has highlighted the challenges of regulating social media platforms that are owned by foreign companies. TikTok’s Chinese ownership has raised concerns over the potential for user data to be accessed by the Chinese government, leading to calls for greater regulation of social media platforms.
Overall, the battle over TikTok has demonstrated the complex legal and regulatory challenges posed by foreign investment in the US, particularly in the technology sector. While Congress has taken steps towards divesting TikTok’s US operations, the legal implications of such actions remain unclear.
Corporate Response
Company’s Defense Strategy
TikTok’s Chinese owner, ByteDance, has vowed to fight back against the US Congress’s decision to force it to sell off the app’s US operations. The company is reportedly considering several options to defend itself, including legal action, lobbying efforts, and potential partnerships with US companies.
ByteDance has argued that the move by Congress is politically motivated and violates the company’s rights. The company has also emphasized that TikTok’s US user data is stored in the US and is not subject to Chinese government control.
To bolster its defence, ByteDance has hired a team of high-profile lawyers, including former US Solicitor General Theodore Olson. The company is also reportedly exploring potential partnerships with US companies, such as Microsoft, to help address concerns about data security.
Public Relations Efforts
In addition to its legal and lobbying efforts, ByteDance has launched a public relations campaign to defend the app and its Chinese ownership. The company has emphasized TikTok’s popularity and cultural impact, highlighting its role in promoting diversity and creativity.
ByteDance has also sought to distance itself from the Chinese government, emphasizing that it operates independently and is not subject to Chinese censorship laws. The company has also emphasized its commitment to data privacy and security, noting that it stores user data in the US and other countries outside of China.
Despite these efforts, ByteDance faces an uphill battle to defend TikTok’s US operations. The company will need to address concerns about data security and potential Chinese government influence, while also convincing US lawmakers and regulators that it can operate independently and in the best interests of US users.
Economic and Political Stakes
The battle over TikTok has major economic and political implications for both the United States and China. With more than 91 million users in the US alone, TikTok has become a significant player in the social media landscape, and its popularity has made it a target of concern for US lawmakers. The recent moves by the US Congress to force the app’s Chinese owner to sell it off have raised questions about the future of the app and its impact on US-China relations.
Impact on US-China Relations
The battle over TikTok has the potential to further strain already tense relations between the US and China. The Trump administration has been vocal in its criticism of China, and the move to force the sale of TikTok is just the latest in a series of actions taken against Chinese companies. The Chinese government has responded with its own set of measures, including new restrictions on US tech companies operating in China.
The ongoing battle over TikTok has also highlighted concerns about data privacy and security. US lawmakers have raised concerns about the app’s data collection practices and the potential for the Chinese government to access user data. China has denied any wrongdoing and has accused the US of using national security concerns as a pretext for protectionism.
Consequences for Global Markets
The battle over TikTok has wider implications for global markets. The app’s popularity has made it a significant player in the social media landscape, and its forced sale could have ripple effects on the tech industry as a whole. The move could also have implications for other Chinese companies operating in the US, and could lead to a wider crackdown on Chinese investment in the US.
The battle over TikTok is likely to continue for some time, and the outcome is far from certain. However, the economic and political stakes are high, and the impact of the battle could be felt for years to come.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the rationale behind the US Congress’s move to force a sale of TikTok?
The US Congress has expressed concerns about the potential national security risks posed by TikTok’s ownership by Chinese company ByteDance. Lawmakers have cited fears that TikTok’s data collection practices may be used by the Chinese government to gather sensitive information on US citizens. The move to force a sale of TikTok is seen as a way to mitigate these risks.
What is the status of the legislation aimed at banning TikTok?
As of the current date, no legislation has been passed to ban TikTok in the US. However, the US Department of Commerce has taken steps to restrict the app’s use in the country. In September 2020, the Department announced that it would ban TikTok from US app stores, though this decision was later temporarily blocked by a federal judge.
How might TikTok’s ownership respond to the US legislative actions?
TikTok’s ownership has previously pushed back against US legislative actions aimed at restricting the app’s use. The company has argued that it operates independently of the Chinese government and has taken steps to distance itself from its Chinese roots, including hiring US-based executives and establishing a US-based subsidiary. However, it remains to be seen how the company will respond to the latest legislative actions aimed at forcing a sale of the app.
What are the potential consequences for users if TikTok is banned in the US?
If TikTok is banned in the US, users may lose access to the app’s social media features, including the ability to create and share short-form videos. However, it is worth noting that TikTok’s popularity has led to the emergence of several alternative social media apps that offer similar features, such as Instagram’s Reels and Byte, which was created by the co-founder of Vine.
Has any legislation been passed to date regarding the prohibition of TikTok?
As of the current date, no legislation has been passed to prohibit the use of TikTok in the US. However, the US government has taken steps to restrict the app’s use, including the aforementioned ban on TikTok in US app stores.
Which other countries have taken steps to ban or restrict TikTok?
Several other countries, including India and Pakistan, have taken steps to ban or restrict TikTok over concerns about national security and user privacy. In India, TikTok was banned in June 2020, along with several other Chinese-owned apps. In Pakistan, the government has announced plans to ban TikTok unless the app takes steps to address concerns about “obscenity and immorality.”
Introduction
China’s consumer prices have shown signs of rebounding, thanks to a holiday boom. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew by 0.7% year on year in February, surpassing expectations and marking the first rise after six consecutive months of decline. However, amidst this positive development, there are looming concerns about deflation risks as factory gate prices continue to fall for the 17th consecutive month. This article delves into the intricacies of China’s current economic landscape, analyzing the factors contributing to the CPI growth and exploring the implications of persistent deflation risks.
1: Understanding China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) Growth
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) serves as a key indicator of inflation and reflects changes in the prices paid by consumers for goods and services. The recent 0.7% year-on-year growth in China’s CPI in February has sparked optimism among economists and policymakers. This growth can be attributed to various factors, including increased consumer spending during holidays, rising demand for certain goods and services, and government stimulus measures aimed at boosting consumption.
2: Implications of CPI Growth on China’s Economy
The rebound in consumer prices has significant implications for China’s economy. A positive CPI growth indicates a healthier level of inflation, which can stimulate economic activity by encouraging spending and investment. It also reflects improved consumer confidence and overall economic stability. However, it is essential to monitor the sustainability of this growth and its impact on other economic indicators.
3: Analyzing Deflation Risks in China’s Economy
Despite the encouraging CPI growth, there are concerns about deflation risks looming over China’s economy. The continuous decline in factory gate prices for the 17th consecutive month is seen as a warning signal by analysts. Deflation can have detrimental effects on an economy, leading to reduced consumer spending, lower corporate profits, and potential economic stagnation. Policymakers must address these deflation risks proactively to prevent long-term negative consequences.
4: Factors Contributing to Deflation Risks
Several factors contribute to the deflation risks faced by China’s economy. Overcapacity in certain industries, weak global demand, trade tensions, and technological advancements leading to cost reductions are some of the key factors driving down factory gate prices. Addressing these underlying issues requires a comprehensive approach that involves structural reforms, targeted stimulus measures, and strategic policy interventions.
5: Strategies to Mitigate Deflation Risks
To mitigate deflation risks and sustain economic growth, policymakers in China need to implement effective strategies. These may include promoting domestic consumption through incentives and subsidies, fostering innovation and technological advancement to enhance competitiveness, addressing overcapacity through industry restructuring, and maintaining a stable macroeconomic environment through prudent monetary and fiscal policies.
Conclusion
China’s consumer price rebound offers a glimmer of hope amidst challenging economic conditions. While the CPI growth signals positive momentum in the short term, it is essential to address the underlying deflation risks to ensure long-term economic stability and growth. By understanding the factors contributing to CPI growth and deflation risks, policymakers can formulate targeted strategies to navigate these challenges effectively. Monitoring economic indicators closely and implementing proactive measures will be crucial in safeguarding China’s economy against potential downturns.
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