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Is Putin’s gamble on Ukraine rational?

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The invasion can bring the downfall of Putin’s regime – but it can also give him exactly what he wants.

Early in the morning of February 24, under the orders of President Vladimir Putin, Russia launched a full-out invasion of Ukraine. The Russian air force started striking military targets all around the country and advanced occupation forces crossed the border to the north and the south.

What seemed unimaginable to many Russia experts, including myself, just a day ago is now a reality the world will need to accept and cope with.

On the face of it, Putin’s move appears irrational. It is a crime against Ukraine – a brazen violation of international law. It will mark a dark chapter in Russia’s history and inflict costs on Russia that could prove to be heavy enough to turn the Russian people against their president.

The Kremlin’s rhetoric about Ukraine being a “brotherly nation” is widely mocked in the West, but this is indeed how most Russians see their neighbour – not for ideological reasons, but because almost all of them have either relatives or friends in this country.

Selling this war to Russians will be an uphill task for Putin – nothing like the occupation of Crimea, which was nearly bloodless with a clear majority of the locals welcoming the change of flag. Today, Ukrainians seem poised to put up a real fight, which means a protracted conflict with multiple casualties on the Russian side.

Justifying the loss of income and savings Russians will experience because of the expected Western sanctions will be similarly difficult. This morning people in Moscow were reportedly already queueing at cash machines dispensing foreign currency in anticipation of the rouble’s collapse. Furthermore, inevitable isolation from the West is going to be a nightmare not only for the liberal intelligentsia, but also for a large part of the political and business elite.

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If all these predictions prove correct and this war results in Putin’s fall, many in Ukraine and in the West will say it was worth the sacrifice. But what if Putin is not being irrational? What if those who continue to think that he is are naive idealists? What if Ukraine completely surrenders after a few days, the Russian economy sustains Western sanctions without breaking a sweat, and Russians continue to go about their daily lives?

If that turns out to be the case, we will find ourselves in a darker, much more sinister world where aggression and cruelty is seen as a prerequisite for success on the international arena.

We will soon find out whether Putin was rational or not.

How will Zelenskyy’s gamble play out?

We will also soon find out whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy did the right thing when he chose to put up a fight rather than avoid collusion by accepting his country’s neutral status or agreeing to implement the Minsk agreements, as Russia demanded prior to the invasion.

We do not yet know how all this will end, but we do know that the results of (a very likely) Ukrainian defeat will be infinitely more drastic than what Russian demands envisaged just a few days ago.

Zelenskyy definitely felt the support of Ukrainian society when he made the call, but perhaps he also felt an urge to present himself as a truly tough politician in a situation where both the Kremlin and the domestic opposition pictured him, a former comedian, as a spineless political amateur. That urge perhaps incentivised him to take an untenable risk.

We will also find out, albeit much later when classified documents will be put into the public domain, what role Ukraine’s Western allies played in him making this decision – whether they encouraged him to resist Putin with all the means available to him, or were nudging him towards compromise, but failed to overcome his stubborn resolve.

While only time will tell what this escalation will bring for Putin and Zelenskyy, there are also some immediate lessons that can be learned from today’s events.

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Time to question Washington’s approach to Russia

The tragic events under way in Ukraine should reinvigorate the discussion on the wisdom of Western and specifically American policies regarding Russia and the remainder of the former USSR in the last 30 years.

How wise was it to expand NATO and the EU towards Russia’s borders, isolating Russia from its closest neighbours and breaking the natural flow of post-Soviet societies with hard borders and trade barriers? The policy was aimed at preventing a new aggressive monster state, the USSR 2.0, from rising from the ruins of the Soviet Union. But isn’t this exactly what is happening now? Wouldn’t it have been much wiser to prioritise integrating Russia – a huge nuclear power – into the West when the country was ripe and ready for it, rather than brushing it off as a largely irrelevant declining power?

Various Russian officials warned the West back in the 1990s that the efforts to isolate and sideline Russia would result in the rise of nationalist and autocratic forces in the country. Indeed Putin himself recalled in one of his latest speeches how he once asked President Bill Clinton whether Russia could also join NATO, but did not get an answer.

Back in 2000, when he was first elected in the still democratic elections, Putin was seen as a liberal and tacitly supported by the West against his more conservative rivals. A man without real political principles, just hungry for power, Putin could have become a perfect eurocrat. Hasn’t the West, with its perpetual fear of Russia, grown its own Frankenstein?

Even now, at the point of collision, the West does not have a vision for a post-Putin Russia which could motivate Russians to change the political regime in their country. Indeed, for many in the hawkish circles, an aggressive and isolated Russia is a milking cow that secures their salaries and lucrative contracts.

Russian society is responsible for Ukraine’s current tragedy and for allowing Putin to usurp power. But this war, with its many dire consequences that will emerge in the coming days and weeks, is in itself a punishment for Russians. Now all efforts should focus on finding a way to build a united Europe, with a democratic, post-Putinist Russia as an integral part.

Via Aljazeera

NATO

Unpacking NATO’s Troop Deployments in Ukraine: Navigating the Path to Peace Amidst Nuclear Risks

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Introduction

In recent times, the geopolitical landscape has been fraught with tensions, particularly surrounding NATO’s plans for troop deployments in Ukraine. The implications of such actions have sparked concerns about the potential for nuclear war. This article delves into the intricacies of NATO’s troop deployments in Ukraine and analyzes the risks associated with these manoeuvres.

Understanding NATO’s Troop Deployments in Ukraine:
NATO’s decision to deploy troops in Ukraine stems from a desire to bolster security in the region amidst escalating tensions with Russia. The alliance aims to support Ukraine’s sovereignty and deter further Russian aggression. However, these deployments have raised alarm bells due to the proximity to Russia’s borders and the potential for miscalculations that could lead to a dangerous escalation.

Assessing the Nuclear Threat:
The spectre of nuclear war looms large over any conflict involving major powers like NATO and Russia. The presence of troops in Ukraine increases the risk of inadvertent clashes that could spiral out of control, potentially leading to a catastrophic nuclear exchange. Understanding the dynamics of nuclear deterrence and the challenges it poses in a volatile situation is crucial in assessing the gravity of the situation.

Historical Context and Lessons Learned:
Drawing lessons from past conflicts and crises can provide valuable insights into how to navigate the current situation. Historical examples such as the Cuban Missile Crisis highlight the dangers of brinkmanship and the importance of clear communication channels to prevent misunderstandings that could trigger a nuclear catastrophe.

Diplomatic Efforts and De-escalation Strategies:
Amidst heightened tensions, diplomatic efforts play a crucial role in preventing conflicts from escalating into full-blown wars. Engaging in dialogue, promoting transparency, and seeking common ground are essential components of de-escalation strategies that can help defuse tensions and reduce the risk of nuclear confrontation.

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The Role of International Organizations and Multilateral Cooperation:
International organizations like the United Nations play a pivotal role in mediating conflicts and promoting peaceful resolutions. Multilateral cooperation is essential in addressing complex security challenges and fostering stability in regions facing geopolitical tensions. Leveraging diplomatic channels through international platforms can help mitigate risks and prevent conflicts from spiralling out of control.

Conclusion:
As NATO’s troop deployments in Ukraine continue to provoke concerns about the specter of nuclear war, it is imperative for all parties involved to exercise restraint, prioritize dialogue over confrontation, and work towards peaceful resolutions. By understanding the risks involved, learning from history, and engaging in diplomatic efforts, we can navigate these turbulent times with caution and foresight.

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European Union

A Pyrrhic Victory for Ukraine: Hungary’s Veto Casts a Shadow Over EU Membership Dream

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In a night of stark contrasts, the European Union offered Ukraine a glimmer of hope by opening the door to membership, only to have Hungary slam it shut on crucial financial aid. While President Zelensky hailed the accession talks as a “victory,” the bitter sting of Hungary’s veto on a €50 billion aid package left a bitter aftertaste. This geopolitical chess game, unfolding amidst the backdrop of a brutal war, raises critical questions about solidarity, unity, and the true meaning of European values.

Hungary’s decision, orchestrated by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, stands as a stark reminder that the path to EU membership is fraught with political hurdles. Orbán, a long-time critic of Ukraine’s President Zelensky and a close ally of Russian President Putin cited concerns about Ukraine’s readiness and the potential burden on Hungary as reasons for his veto. However, many see this move as politically motivated, a calculated leveraging of EU funds frozen over rule-of-law concerns.

This cynical ploy throws a wrench into the narrative of unwavering European support for Ukraine. The war-torn nation, battling for its very existence against Russian aggression, desperately needs this financial lifeline. The €50 billion package, earmarked for reconstruction, humanitarian aid, and military assistance, is not a luxury, but a lifeline. Every euro withheld is a victory for Putin, prolonging the suffering of the Ukrainian people.

Hungary’s isolation in this decision is palpable. All 26 other member states backed the aid package, highlighting the widening chasm between Orbán’s nationalist populism and the EU’s values of unity and solidarity. The European Council President, Charles Michel, called Orbán’s veto “unjustifiable,” and the chorus of condemnation from other member states is growing.

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Beyond the immediate financial impact, Hungary’s veto casts a shadow over the future of EU enlargement. The prospect of Ukraine’s accession, once seen as a symbol of European unity against Russian aggression, is now tainted by political manoeuvring and self-interest. This raises concerns about the EU’s credibility as a beacon of hope and a guarantor of security for aspiring members.

However, amidst the disappointment, there are glimmers of hope. The opening of accession talks for Ukraine is a significant step forward, a tangible recognition of the country’s democratic aspirations and its unwavering commitment to European values. It is a clear message to Putin that Ukraine has a future within the European fold, a future that cannot be extinguished by bombs or vetoes.

Moving forward, the EU must find a way to overcome this internal friction. Hungary’s veto cannot be allowed to derail the Ukrainian people’s legitimate pursuit of membership. Potential solutions could include amending the voting procedure for future aid packages, exploring alternative funding mechanisms, or even imposing sanctions on Hungary for obstructionism.

Ultimately, the responsibility lies with Orbán. He must choose whether to stand on the side of history, supporting Ukraine in its fight for freedom and democracy, or remain tethered to his own narrow political agenda. The eyes of Europe, and indeed the world, are watching.

The story of Hungary’s veto is not just about euros and political gamesmanship. It is a story about the values that define Europe – solidarity, unity, and the courage to stand up for what is right in the face of adversity. While the sting of the veto is immediate, the long-term consequences depend on how the EU and its member states respond. Will they allow Orbán’s cynicism to dim the light of European hope for Ukraine? Or will they rise to the challenge, reaffirming the values that bind them together and forging a path towards a future where all of Europe stands united against tyranny and oppression?

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This is not just a question for politicians and diplomats; it is a question for every European citizen. We must demand that our leaders stand on the right side of history, that they reject the cynicism and self-interest that fueled Hungary’s veto, and that they work tirelessly to ensure that Ukraine’s dream of European membership does not become another casualty of this tragic war.

The fight for Ukraine’s future is far from over. The opening of accession talks is a victory, but the battle for financial aid, for unity, and the very soul of Europe continues. We must stand with Ukraine, not just in words, but in deeds, ensuring that the light of hope kindled by the EU’s embrace does not flicker out, but burns brightly, guiding Ukraine towards a future it so rightfully deserves.

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Analysis

🎯Putin’s Empire: Will It Collapse? The Shocking Truth Revealed!

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President Joe Biden and Russian

The current state of world affairs is marked by uncertainty, particularly as Russia, led by Vladimir Putin, seeks to recapture its former strength and expand its influence. This piece examines the historical examples of empires striving to regain lost territories and the possible repercussions of Putin’s aggressive actions in Ukraine. We will take a critical and analytical approach to explore the Russian invasion, Putin’s aspirations for a new empire, the fall of Ukraine, and the role of the United States in this global power struggle.

The Russian Invasion: A Bold Move or a Desperate Act?

A Glimpse into Putin’s Ambitions

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in recent years has sent shockwaves through the international community. It’s not the first time in history that an empire has sought to expand its territory through military force, and Putin’s ambitions harken back to a bygone era when empires were the dominant players on the world stage.

Russian Invasion: The Russian invasion of Ukraine is reminiscent of similar imperialistic moves made by emperors of old. Putin, with dreams of a new Russian empire, has aggressively pursued his vision in the face of global opposition.

Putin’s Vision: Vladimir Putin’s ambition to restore Russia to its former imperial glory is evident in his actions. He envisions a new Russian empire that expands beyond its current borders, making Ukraine a central piece in his geopolitical puzzle.

Lessons from History: The Perils of Imperialism

Throughout history, empires that sought to expand often faced significant challenges. The very act of empire-building can be a double-edged sword. As they say, history repeats itself.

Imperial Overstretch: One of the most common pitfalls empires face is the concept of imperial overstretch. The more territory an empire seeks to control, the harder it becomes to maintain and govern. This overreach can lead to a strain on resources, military power, and diplomatic relations.

Resistance and Rebellion: Empires attempting to reclaim lost territories often face strong resistance from the local populations. The resistance can manifest in various forms, including rebellions, insurgencies, and international sanctions.

International Backlash: The international community tends to react strongly to aggressive imperialistic moves. Economic sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and military intervention from other nations can quickly turn the tide against the aggressor.

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The Collapse of Ukraine: A Pawn in the Geopolitical Game

The Struggles of a Nation Caught in the Crossfire

The collapse of Ukraine is a heartbreaking consequence of the power struggle between Russia and the West. This section explores the history of Ukraine’s struggle for independence and its role in Putin’s grand vision.

Ukraine’s Historical Quest for Independence: Ukraine has a long and tumultuous history, often caught between the influence of larger neighbouring powers. The country’s aspiration for independence and self-determination has been a driving force for its people.

Putin’s Manipulation: Putin’s strategy to incorporate Ukraine into his new Russian empire involved tactics that undermined Ukraine’s sovereignty. The annexation of Crimea and the ongoing conflict in Eastern Ukraine are examples of Putin’s coercive approach.

Humanitarian Crisis: The collapse of Ukraine has also resulted in a significant humanitarian crisis, with countless lives disrupted, and a nation torn apart by conflict.

The Role of the United States: A Global Power Play

The Geostrategic Implications

The United States, as a superpower, plays a pivotal role in this geopolitical struggle. Its stance and actions can significantly impact the outcome of Putin’s ambitions.

US Opposition to Russian Expansion: The United States has been a staunch critic of Russia’s aggressive actions and has taken measures to deter Putin’s expansionist agenda. This includes sanctions, military aid to Ukraine, and diplomatic efforts.

Geostrategic Implications: The struggle between Russia and the US over Ukraine has broader implications for global geopolitics. It’s not just about Ukraine; it’s about the balance of power in Europe and beyond.

Potential Escalation: The ongoing tensions and confrontations between Russia and the US raise concerns about a potential escalation of the conflict and its impact on global stability.

Conclusion

The Future of Putin’s Ambitions

In conclusion, history provides a sobering lesson for those who seek to restore empires and expand their territories. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a bold move by Putin, driven by a vision of a new empire. However, as history has shown, the path to empire-building is fraught with challenges and uncertainties.

The collapse of Ukraine is a tragic consequence of this geopolitical power struggle, resulting in a humanitarian crisis of epic proportions. The role of the United States in opposing Russian expansion adds another layer of complexity to the situation, with implications far beyond Eastern Europe.

As we watch the events unfold, the world can only hope that a peaceful and diplomatic resolution can be found, avoiding further conflict and suffering. The future of Putin’s ambitions and the stability of the global order hang in the balance.

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In the end, the inevitable fall of Putin’s new Russian empire may be a cautionary tale for future leaders and a reminder that history has a way of repeating itself, even in the modern age.

FAQs

What is the Russian invasion mentioned in the article?

The Russian invasion refers to the military action taken by Russia in Ukraine, to expand its territory and influence.

What are Putin’s ambitions for a new Russian empire?

Vladimir Putin envisions a new Russian empire that includes territories beyond Russia’s current borders, with a particular focus on Ukraine as a central piece of this grand vision.

What is imperial overstretch, and how does it relate to empires?

Imperial overstretch is a concept where empires that seek to control extensive territories may find it challenging to maintain and govern those territories effectively. This can lead to resource strain, military difficulties, and diplomatic challenges.

Why is Ukraine considered a pawn in the geopolitical game?

Ukraine is seen as a pawn due to its strategic location and its historical struggle for independence. It has become a focal point in the struggle between Russia and the West, leading to the collapse of the nation.

How has Putin manipulated Ukraine’s sovereignty?

Putin has employed various tactics, such as the annexation of Crimea and involvement in the conflict in Eastern Ukraine, to undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty and further his ambitions.

What is the humanitarian crisis mentioned in the article?

The humanitarian crisis refers to the widespread suffering and disruption of lives in Ukraine as a result of the ongoing conflict and the collapse of the nation.

What measures has the United States taken in opposition to Russian expansion?

The United States has taken several measures, including imposing sanctions, providing military aid to Ukraine, and engaging in diplomatic efforts to counter Russia’s expansionist agenda.

What are the geostrategic implications of the struggle between Russia and the US over Ukraine?

The struggle over Ukraine has broader implications for global geopolitics, affecting the balance of power in Europe and potentially leading to an escalation of the conflict.

What is the global significance of the situation discussed in the article?

The events surrounding Putin’s ambitions and the Ukraine crisis have global significance, as they impact the stability of the global order and the potential for further conflicts.

Can history provide insights into the outcome of Putin’s ambitions?

History can offer valuable insights into the potential challenges and consequences of empire-building and territorial expansion, even in the modern age.

How can a peaceful and diplomatic resolution be achieved in this situation?

Achieving a peaceful and diplomatic resolution requires careful negotiations and international cooperation to de-escalate tensions and address the root causes of the conflict.

What can other leaders learn from the events discussed in the article?

Other leaders can learn from the cautionary tale of Putin’s ambitions and the historical patterns of empire-building, emphasizing the importance of diplomacy and conflict prevention.

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