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Nato vs. Russia: who would win a war?

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As Nato condemns the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Finland and Sweden dismiss Moscow’s warning against joining military alliance

When Russian troops crossed into Ukraine and illegally annexed Crimea in 2014, Nato was caught flat-footed by Moscow’s sudden and unorthodox military campaign.

Now, with Russian troops once again massing at the Ukrainian border, the international military alliance is keen to avoid a repeat performance.

The two sides are negotiating, with the stated aim of avoiding an armed escalation that would pull in many of the world’s most powerful military forces. But if a conflict cannot be avoided, who stands to lose if Nato and Russian go head-to-head on the battlefield?   

The latest

Finland and Sweden have brushed off warnings from Russia that an effort to join Nato would trigger “serious military-political consequences” for the two countries.

The Russian Foreign Ministry released a statement on Friday in which it accused the US and its allies of attempting to “drag” the two Nordic nations into the military alliance. With conflict already raging in Ukraine, Moscow threatened “retaliatory measures” if Sweden and Finland began efforts to join Nato, The Independent said.

Finnish foreign minister Pekka Haavisto responded to Moscow’s threat on Friday, telling the nation’s public broadcaster YLE: “We’ve heard this before. We don’t think that it calls for a military threat.” 

“Should Finland be Nato’s external border, it rather means that Russia would certainly take that into account in its own defence planning,” she added. “I don’t see anything new as such” in the statement issued by Russia’s Foreign Ministry.

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Finland has an 830-mile land border with Russia, the longest border shared by any EU member state and Russia.

The Swedish prime minister, Magdalena Andersson, responded to Moscow’s statement in a joint conference with her most senior military commander, Micael Byden. 

“I want to be extremely clear. It is Sweden that itself and independently decides on our security policy line,” Andersson said.

The Russian statement had warned Sweden and Finland that their “policy of military non-alignment” was “an important factor contributing to stability and security in northern Europe and on the European continent as a whole”.

What is Nato’s capability?

The core principle of Nato’s international military alliance is its system of collective defence, meaning if any member state is attacked by a third party, then every member state must step in to defend it.

Fortunately for countries such as Montenegro, which spends just £67m a year on defence, there are some military big hitters in the alliance. 

The US spends more on defence than double the rest of Nato combined, with 2021 spending estimated at $705bn (£516bn), according to the Department of Defense.

As well as being the biggest defence spender in the world, the US has a powerful arsenal and a huge amount of manpower – 1.3 million active troops, with another 865,000 in reserve, said The New York Times in 2017. The UK is the second biggest overall spender in Nato, putting nearly £50bn into defence annually compared to Germany’s £45bn, France’s £42bn and Italy’s £20bn.

What is Russia’s capability?

Russia’s military capability is not to be sniffed at, easily ranking among the world’s most powerful.

ccording to the Washington-based Heritage Foundation, its inventory includes “336 intercontinental ballistic missiles, 2,840 battle tanks, 5,220 armored infantry fighting vehicles, over 6,100 armored personnel carriers and more than 4,684 pieces of artillery”.

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But it is lacking in some areas of modern military technology, including drone capability, electronic components, and radar and satellite reconnaissance, Russian journalist and military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer told Deutsche Welle.

“That’s what the Russian military is talking about: yes, we have weapons, including long-range weapons, but our reconnaissance capabilities are weaker than our attack capabilities,” Felgenhauer said. “So we have-long range, sometimes precision guided weapons, but we don’t always know where the target is.”

Who would win?

Research published in 2019 by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) found that British forces would be “comprehensively outgunned” in any conflict with Russia in eastern Europe. 

The RUSI found that the British Army and its Nato allies have a “critical shortage” of artillery and ammunition, meaning they would struggle to maintain a credible defence position if Russia were to opt for all-out aggression.

“At present, there is a risk that the UK – unable to credibly fight – can be dominated lower down the escalation ladder by powers threatening escalation,” said RUSI’s report.

But the UK wouldn’t need to stand alone against Russia. And Nato’s biggest player, the US, has an overwhelming advantage over Russia in conventional forces, Russian military analyst Aleksandr Golts told Deutsche Welle.

While Felgenhauer agreed with Golt’s assessment of the US’s military advantage, he warned that open warfare often comes down to far more than the inventories that each side of the conflict can call upon. 

He told DW that “it’s like predicting the result of a soccer match”, adding: “Yes, basically, Brazil should beat America in soccer, but I have seen Americans beat Brazil in South Africa, at the Confederations Cup. You never know the result until the game is played.”

Via The Week

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China

Western Moves to Contain China’s Rise and The New Global Order!

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I. Introduction

Many Western countries are actively working to limit China’s rise to power on the global stage. Their approach involves utilizing international law and norms to create a narrative that portrays China as a potential threat to the current world order. This strategy aims to curb China’s influence and prevent it from becoming a dominant force in the international community. By constructing this narrative, Western countries hope to gain support from other nations and strengthen their positions in the global arena. However, this approach may also lead to increased tensions and conflict between China and the West.

II. Western Countries’ Efforts to Contain China’s Rise

A. Use of International Law and Norms

Western nations have strategically harnessed international law and norms to impede China’s rise. This involves leveraging their diplomatic and economic influence to mould a narrative that portrays China as a disruptor of the established global equilibrium.

B. Creation of a Narrative Portraying China as a Threat to the World Order

The West, through its geopolitical manoeuvring, has meticulously crafted a narrative painting China as a menace to the prevailing world order. This narrative, however, raises questions about its veracity, as it seems detached from objective facts and is utilized to rationalize Western aggression against China.

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C. Lack of Factual Basis for the Narrative

Scrutinizing the narrative reveals a notable absence of a factual foundation. The depiction of China as a global threat appears to be a strategic fabrication, a tool wielded to legitimize Western actions against China and rally international support.

D. Use of the Narrative to Justify Western Aggression Against China

The narrative portraying China as a threat serves as a pretext for Western aggression against the emerging global power. This aggressive stance, built on a shaky foundation, not only distorts the reality of China’s peaceful rise but also contributes to an increasingly precarious global situation.

III. China’s Response to These Challenges

A. Efforts to Create a New World Order

In response to the challenges posed by Western containment strategies, China is actively engaged in creating a new world order that prioritizes equity and inclusivity. This involves a departure from the traditional power dynamics and a quest for a more balanced and fair global system.

B. Focus on Equity and Inclusivity

China’s approach to reshaping the world order underscores a commitment to equity and inclusivity. By advocating for a fair and just global environment, China aims to foster cooperation, mutual respect, and understanding among nations.

IV. Conclusion

A. Recap of the Main Points

The central theme revolves around Western attempts to stifle China’s ascent, deploying international law and norms to construct a narrative that casts China as a global threat. tIt also analyses China’s response, emphasizing its pursuit of a new world order marked by equity and inclusivity.

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B. Final Thoughts

The Western endeavours to contain China’s rise carry significant implications for global stability. Recognizing China’s ascendancy and engaging in collaborative efforts to construct a more equitable and just world order is not only prudent but essential for fostering a harmonious and cooperative international community. As we navigate these complex geopolitical waters, the imperative is to move beyond adversarial narratives and embrace a shared vision for a better future.

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Analysis

🎯Putin’s Empire: Will It Collapse? The Shocking Truth Revealed!

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President Joe Biden and Russian

The current state of world affairs is marked by uncertainty, particularly as Russia, led by Vladimir Putin, seeks to recapture its former strength and expand its influence. This piece examines the historical examples of empires striving to regain lost territories and the possible repercussions of Putin’s aggressive actions in Ukraine. We will take a critical and analytical approach to explore the Russian invasion, Putin’s aspirations for a new empire, the fall of Ukraine, and the role of the United States in this global power struggle.

The Russian Invasion: A Bold Move or a Desperate Act?

A Glimpse into Putin’s Ambitions

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in recent years has sent shockwaves through the international community. It’s not the first time in history that an empire has sought to expand its territory through military force, and Putin’s ambitions harken back to a bygone era when empires were the dominant players on the world stage.

Russian Invasion: The Russian invasion of Ukraine is reminiscent of similar imperialistic moves made by emperors of old. Putin, with dreams of a new Russian empire, has aggressively pursued his vision in the face of global opposition.

Putin’s Vision: Vladimir Putin’s ambition to restore Russia to its former imperial glory is evident in his actions. He envisions a new Russian empire that expands beyond its current borders, making Ukraine a central piece in his geopolitical puzzle.

Lessons from History: The Perils of Imperialism

Throughout history, empires that sought to expand often faced significant challenges. The very act of empire-building can be a double-edged sword. As they say, history repeats itself.

Imperial Overstretch: One of the most common pitfalls empires face is the concept of imperial overstretch. The more territory an empire seeks to control, the harder it becomes to maintain and govern. This overreach can lead to a strain on resources, military power, and diplomatic relations.

Resistance and Rebellion: Empires attempting to reclaim lost territories often face strong resistance from the local populations. The resistance can manifest in various forms, including rebellions, insurgencies, and international sanctions.

International Backlash: The international community tends to react strongly to aggressive imperialistic moves. Economic sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and military intervention from other nations can quickly turn the tide against the aggressor.

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The Collapse of Ukraine: A Pawn in the Geopolitical Game

The Struggles of a Nation Caught in the Crossfire

The collapse of Ukraine is a heartbreaking consequence of the power struggle between Russia and the West. This section explores the history of Ukraine’s struggle for independence and its role in Putin’s grand vision.

Ukraine’s Historical Quest for Independence: Ukraine has a long and tumultuous history, often caught between the influence of larger neighbouring powers. The country’s aspiration for independence and self-determination has been a driving force for its people.

Putin’s Manipulation: Putin’s strategy to incorporate Ukraine into his new Russian empire involved tactics that undermined Ukraine’s sovereignty. The annexation of Crimea and the ongoing conflict in Eastern Ukraine are examples of Putin’s coercive approach.

Humanitarian Crisis: The collapse of Ukraine has also resulted in a significant humanitarian crisis, with countless lives disrupted, and a nation torn apart by conflict.

The Role of the United States: A Global Power Play

The Geostrategic Implications

The United States, as a superpower, plays a pivotal role in this geopolitical struggle. Its stance and actions can significantly impact the outcome of Putin’s ambitions.

US Opposition to Russian Expansion: The United States has been a staunch critic of Russia’s aggressive actions and has taken measures to deter Putin’s expansionist agenda. This includes sanctions, military aid to Ukraine, and diplomatic efforts.

Geostrategic Implications: The struggle between Russia and the US over Ukraine has broader implications for global geopolitics. It’s not just about Ukraine; it’s about the balance of power in Europe and beyond.

Potential Escalation: The ongoing tensions and confrontations between Russia and the US raise concerns about a potential escalation of the conflict and its impact on global stability.

Conclusion

The Future of Putin’s Ambitions

In conclusion, history provides a sobering lesson for those who seek to restore empires and expand their territories. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a bold move by Putin, driven by a vision of a new empire. However, as history has shown, the path to empire-building is fraught with challenges and uncertainties.

The collapse of Ukraine is a tragic consequence of this geopolitical power struggle, resulting in a humanitarian crisis of epic proportions. The role of the United States in opposing Russian expansion adds another layer of complexity to the situation, with implications far beyond Eastern Europe.

As we watch the events unfold, the world can only hope that a peaceful and diplomatic resolution can be found, avoiding further conflict and suffering. The future of Putin’s ambitions and the stability of the global order hang in the balance.

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In the end, the inevitable fall of Putin’s new Russian empire may be a cautionary tale for future leaders and a reminder that history has a way of repeating itself, even in the modern age.

FAQs

What is the Russian invasion mentioned in the article?

The Russian invasion refers to the military action taken by Russia in Ukraine, to expand its territory and influence.

What are Putin’s ambitions for a new Russian empire?

Vladimir Putin envisions a new Russian empire that includes territories beyond Russia’s current borders, with a particular focus on Ukraine as a central piece of this grand vision.

What is imperial overstretch, and how does it relate to empires?

Imperial overstretch is a concept where empires that seek to control extensive territories may find it challenging to maintain and govern those territories effectively. This can lead to resource strain, military difficulties, and diplomatic challenges.

Why is Ukraine considered a pawn in the geopolitical game?

Ukraine is seen as a pawn due to its strategic location and its historical struggle for independence. It has become a focal point in the struggle between Russia and the West, leading to the collapse of the nation.

How has Putin manipulated Ukraine’s sovereignty?

Putin has employed various tactics, such as the annexation of Crimea and involvement in the conflict in Eastern Ukraine, to undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty and further his ambitions.

What is the humanitarian crisis mentioned in the article?

The humanitarian crisis refers to the widespread suffering and disruption of lives in Ukraine as a result of the ongoing conflict and the collapse of the nation.

What measures has the United States taken in opposition to Russian expansion?

The United States has taken several measures, including imposing sanctions, providing military aid to Ukraine, and engaging in diplomatic efforts to counter Russia’s expansionist agenda.

What are the geostrategic implications of the struggle between Russia and the US over Ukraine?

The struggle over Ukraine has broader implications for global geopolitics, affecting the balance of power in Europe and potentially leading to an escalation of the conflict.

What is the global significance of the situation discussed in the article?

The events surrounding Putin’s ambitions and the Ukraine crisis have global significance, as they impact the stability of the global order and the potential for further conflicts.

Can history provide insights into the outcome of Putin’s ambitions?

History can offer valuable insights into the potential challenges and consequences of empire-building and territorial expansion, even in the modern age.

How can a peaceful and diplomatic resolution be achieved in this situation?

Achieving a peaceful and diplomatic resolution requires careful negotiations and international cooperation to de-escalate tensions and address the root causes of the conflict.

What can other leaders learn from the events discussed in the article?

Other leaders can learn from the cautionary tale of Putin’s ambitions and the historical patterns of empire-building, emphasizing the importance of diplomacy and conflict prevention.

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Analysis

Navigating Nuclear Waters: Russia’s Duma Stirs the Pot with CTBT Ratification Revocation

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Revoking ratification of the nuclear test ban treaty raises Security concerns

Introduction: A Ripple in the Global Security Landscape

International relations are a delicate dance, a balancing act of power, diplomacy, and the pursuit of national interests. In a world where nuclear weapons cast a long shadow, maintaining stability and preventing a return to the terrifying era of nuclear testing is of paramount importance. However, recent developments in Russia have sent shockwaves through the global security landscape.

The Russian Duma, the lower house of the country’s parliament, has taken the first step towards revoking Russia’s ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), a landmark agreement that prohibits all nuclear explosions. This move, if finalized, could have far-reaching consequences, potentially jeopardizing decades of non-proliferation efforts and reigniting the spectre of nuclear testing.

Understanding the CTBT: A Cornerstone of Nuclear Non-Proliferation

The CTBT, adopted in 1996, is a pivotal international treaty that aims to banish nuclear testing to the annals of history. It prohibits all nuclear explosions, whether for military or civilian purposes and establishes a global verification regime to detect any clandestine attempts to conduct such tests.

The treaty has garnered widespread support, with 185 countries signing and 172 ratifying it. However, its entry into force requires the ratification of eight specific countries, including the United States, China, and, until recently, Russia.

The CTBT’s significance lies in its role as a cornerstone of the global nuclear non-proliferation regime. Banning nuclear testing helps prevent the development of new and more destructive nuclear weapons, thus curbing the spread of these devastating armaments.

Russia’s Duma and the Revocation: Unraveling the Rationale

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Russia’s move to revoke its ratification of the CTBT has raised concerns and sparked debates about the underlying motivations. The Duma’s decision follows President Vladimir Putin’s statement earlier this month, where he suggested mirroring the US stance, as the US has signed but not ratified the treaty.

Some analysts suggest that Russia’s move is a symbolic gesture aimed at demonstrating its displeasure with the US and its allies over their support for Ukraine amidst the ongoing conflict. Others argue that it could be a bargaining chip in future negotiations with the West on various issues, including arms control and security arrangements.

Potential Implications: A World on Edge

The potential implications of Russia’s decision to revoke its CTBT ratification are far-reaching and concerning. It could undermine the treaty’s credibility and weaken the global non-proliferation regime, potentially emboldening other countries to follow suit.

Furthermore, it could signal a return to an era of nuclear testing, reigniting an arms race and escalating tensions between nuclear-armed states. The spectre of nuclear weapons testing, with its devastating environmental and humanitarian consequences, looms large.

Global Reactions: A Chorus of Concern

The international community has reacted with concern and disapproval to Russia’s move. The United Nations Secretary-General, António Guterres, expressed his “deep regret” over the decision, emphasizing the CTBT’s importance in preventing nuclear proliferation.

The United States, a key signatory to the treaty, has also voiced its disapproval, calling Russia’s decision “a serious mistake.” Other countries, including France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, have echoed similar sentiments, highlighting the importance of upholding the CTBT.

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Implications for the Future: A Path Forward

The path forward in this complex situation is fraught with challenges. Russia’s move has undoubtedly cast a shadow over the CTBT and the global non-proliferation regime. However, it is crucial to maintain dialogue and diplomacy, urging Russia to reconsider its decision and reaffirm its commitment to the treaty.

The international community must continue to advocate for the CTBT’s universalization and entry into force, emphasizing its significance in preventing nuclear proliferation and safeguarding global security.

Conclusion: A Call for Prudence and Collective Action

Russia’s decision to revoke its ratification of the CTBT is a concerning development that could have far-reaching consequences for global security. It is essential to approach this situation with prudence, seeking diplomatic solutions and reaffirming the importance of the CTBT in preventing nuclear proliferation.

The international community must unite in its efforts to uphold the treaty and prevent a return to the perilous era of nuclear testing. Collective action and a renewed commitment to non-proliferation are paramount in navigating these turbulent nuclear waters.

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